For the Record: Assessing the Monetary Policy Stance of the Bank of Canada

Ambler, Steve; Kronick, Jeremy

doi:10.2139/ssrn.4094100

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2022

2023

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“…These studies confirm that supply-side factors have been a major driver behind the recent elevated inflation in many countries. We also help shed light on the connection between pandemic-related disruptions and inflation (Shapiro, 2022a;Ball et al, 2021;Leibovici and Dunn, 2021;de Soyres, Santacreu, and Young, 2022;Di Giovanni et al, 2022;Celasun et al, 2022a;LaBelle and Santacreu, 2022b) and on Canada's recent experience in particular (Azad, Serletis, and Xu, 2021;Ambler and Kronick, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

The Rise (and Fall?) of Inflation in Canada: A Detailed Analysis of Its Post-Pandemic Experience

Chen

Tombe

2023

Canadian Public Policy

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Canada’s inflation rate rose to generational highs in 2022. We explore this rapid surge. Using new methods and detailed household consumption data, we separately identify demand- and supply-driven price increases. We find the latter accounts for most of inflation’s rise—especially among energy-intensive and highly traded items. In addition, we find items with normally transitory price changes or those highly sensitive to interest rates account for nearly all the increase. Our work sheds important new light on recent inflation trends and illustrates new empirical methods that can add value to inflation monitoring efforts in Canada.

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