Food shortages are associated with droughts, floods, frosts and ENSO in Papua New Guinea

Cobon, D. H.; Ewai, Maureen; Inape, Kasis; Bourke, R. Michael

doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2016.02.012

Cited by 38 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Previous research has demonstrated that ENSO can arise from non-linear atmosphere-ocean interaction and that the ENSO has implications for temperature and rainfall in many parts of the globe (e.g. Yeh et al 2009, Jimenez-Munon et al 2016, Jacox et al 2016, Lee et al 2010, Lee and Julien 2016, Cobon et al 2016, Ng et al 2017. Furthermore, unforced control runs of climate models, which simulate the evolution of climate states due to internal ocean-air dynamics in the absence of external forcing, confirm that El Nino may arise spontaneously without the need for any change in external forcing (Choi et al 2011, Wittenberg et al 2014.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The carbon cycle response to two El Nino types: an observational study

Chýlek

Tans

Christy

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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We analyze monthly tropical near surface air temperature and Mauna Loa Observatory carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) data within 1960-2016 to identify different carbon cycle responses for two El Nino types: El Ninos originating in the central tropical Pacific (CP El Nino) and El Ninos originating in the eastern tropical Pacific (EP El Nino). We find significant differences between the two types of El Nino events with respect to time delay of the CO 2 rise rate that follows the increase in tropical near surface air temperatures caused by El Nino events. The average time lag of the CP El Nino is 4.0 ± 1.7 months, while the mean time lag of EP El Nino is found to be 8.5 ± 2.3 months. The average lag of all considered 1960-2016 El Ninos is 5.2 ± 2.7 months. In contrast the sensitivity of the CO 2 growth rate to tropical near surface air temperature increase is determined to be about the same for both El Nino types equal to 2.8 ± 0.9 ppm yr −1 K −1 (or 5.9 ± 1.9 GtC yr −1 K −1 ). Our results should be useful for the understanding of the carbon cycle and constraining it in climate models.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The carbon cycle response to two El Nino types: an observational study

Chýlek

Tans

Christy

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Low densities of large trees does also suggest that local disturbance dynamics might be of higher intensity in these forests, resulting in greater spatial variability in structure and a higher proportion of biomass represented by small trees. PNG is highly susceptible to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that results in irregular drought events due to periodical variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (Cobon et al 2016). The lower density of larger trees and higher biomass associated with small trees seen at Wanang are likely a function of biogeographical history and combinations of local disturbance mechanisms that include soil type and climate.…”

Section: Comparing Our Results To Global Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In conjunction, climate is likely to play a significant role in shaping these forests and in future carbon dynamics. PNG is highly susceptible to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that results in irregular drought events due to periodical variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (Cobon et al 2016). The impact of drought and large-scale wildfires in PNG due to the 1997/1998 ENSO event caused widespread tree mortality, with net carbon emissions due to degradation continuing for up to 10 years afterwards (Fox et al 2011).…”

Section: Comparing Our Results To Global Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating carbon stock in lowland Papua New Guinean forest: Low density of large trees results in lower than global average carbon stock

et al. 2017

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Papua New Guinean forests (PNG), sequestering up to 3% of global forest carbon, are a focus of climate change mitigation initiatives, yet few field-based studies have quantified forest biomass and carbon for lowland PNG forest. We provide an estimate for the 10 770 ha Wanang Conservation Area (WCA) to investigate the effect of calculation methodology and choice of allometric equation on estimates of above-ground live biomass (AGLB) and carbon. We estimated AGLB and carbon from 43 nested plots at the WCA. Our biomass estimate of 292.2 Mg AGLB ha À1 (95% CI 233.4-350.6) and carbon at 137.3 Mg C ha À1 (95% CI 109.8-164.8) is higher than most estimates for PNG but lower than mean global estimates for tropical forest. Calculation method and choice of allometric model do not significantly influence mean biomass estimates; however, the most recently calibrated allometric equation generates estimates 13% higher for lower 95% confidence intervals of mean biomass than previous allometric modelsa value often used as a conservative estimate of biomass. Although large trees at WCA (>70 cm diameter at breast height) accounted for 1/5 total biomass, their density was lower than that seen in SE Asian and Australia forests. Lower density of large trees accounts for lower AGLB than in neighbouring forestsas large trees contribute disproportionately to forest biomass. Reduced frequency of larger trees at WCA is explained by the lack of diversity of large dipterocarp species common to neighbouring SE Asian forests and, potentially, higher rates of local disturbance dynamics. PNG is susceptible to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) extreme drought events to which large trees are particularly sensitive and, with still over 20% carbon in large trees, differential mortality under increasing ENSO drought stress raises the risk of PNG forest switching from carbon sink to source with reduced long-term carbon storage capacity.

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“…This is attributed to high levels of exposure to hazards (Solomon and Forbes 1999;Noy 2015) coupled with a range of vulnerabilities that include low economic development, weak formal governance structures and social protection, and a dependence on exposed assets and entire industries, such as agriculture and fisheries, that are crucial for livelihoods (Barnett 2010;Connell 2010Connell , 2015Cobon et al 2016). Climate change also poses a greater risk of hazards in the South Pacific: increasing intensity of cyclones (despite a possible decrease in the number (Knutson et al 2010;Walsh 2015); sea level rise; an increased frequency of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles (Cai et al 2014); changing rainfall patterns and increased temperatures, among others (Hansen and Stone 2015).…”

Section: South Pacific Disaster Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Framework for Disaster Vulnerability in a Small Island in the Southwest Pacific: A Case Study of Emae Island, Vanuatu

Jackson

McNamara

Witt

2017

Int J Disaster Risk Sci

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The societal costs of disasters around the world are continuing to increase and Pacific Island countries are considered some of the most vulnerable. This is primarily due to a combination of high hazard exposure coupled with a range of social, economic, physical, and political vulnerabilities. This article contributes to the growing body of work that aims to understand the causal factors of disaster vulnerability, but with a specific focus on small island developing states. The article first develops a framework for understanding disaster vulnerability, drawing on extensive literature and the well-established Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability in Europe (MOVE) framework, and second, applies this adapted framework using empirically-derived data from fieldwork on Emae Island, Vanuatu to provide a working understanding of the causal elements of disaster vulnerability. Drawn from a significant body of scholarship at the time, the MOVE framework was primarily developed as a heuristic tool in which disaster vulnerability is considered to be a function of exposure, susceptibility (socially, economically, physically, culturally, environmentally, institutionally), and a lack of resilience. We posit that this adapted framework for small islands should also include historical susceptibility, and we prefer livelihood resilience (as capabilities, social capital, knowledge, participation, and human rights) over lack of resilience. We maintain that understanding disaster vulnerability holistically, which is inclusive of both strengths and drawbacks, is crucial to ensure that limited resources can target the causal factors that produce vulnerability and help safeguard and improve livelihoods in both the short and long term.

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Food shortages are associated with droughts, floods, frosts and ENSO in Papua New Guinea

Cited by 38 publications

References 12 publications

The carbon cycle response to two El Nino types: an observational study

The carbon cycle response to two El Nino types: an observational study

Estimating carbon stock in lowland Papua New Guinean forest: Low density of large trees results in lower than global average carbon stock

A Framework for Disaster Vulnerability in a Small Island in the Southwest Pacific: A Case Study of Emae Island, Vanuatu

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