Food Price Uncertainty and Political Conflict

Abstract

Waves of concurrent, cross-country political turmoil suggest that global economic forces can serve as a catalyst for intrastate conflict. This article analyses the role of uncertainty shocks to global food commodity prices in generating political conflict in developing countries. I build a simple model to show that shocks to the uncertainty of commodity export prices can elicit civil conflict in a small open economy. Econometric evidence from a cross-country panel data set documenting intrastate civil conflict and global food commodity prices from 1966-90 lends support to this hypothesis. The results suggest that policies which reduce the uncertainty of export prices faced by food commodity exporters can facilitate political stability in conflict-vulnerable countries.