Food insecurity, hoarding behavior, and environmental harshness do not predict weight changes during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic not only presents a medical and psychological stressor to many, but has also led to alterations that many perceived as threatening, such as reduced financial income and job insecurity. A symptom of collective worrying were so-called panic-or 'hamster' purchases, whereby people hoarded food following the introduction of governmental restrictions in response to the pandemic. This behavior indicated subjective 'food insecurity' in many individuals at a time when loss of income could potentially lead to real food insecurity for some. Since both perceived and actual food insecurity, as well as stress, are thought to facilitate weight gain as an adaptive response, this study aimed to investigate body weight during the pandemic. Specifically, we modeled the effects of both psychological and environmental factors such as food insecurity, hoarding behavior and loss of income, on body on weight as lockdown measures were introduced and loosened in four European countries. While we observe no systematic changes in body weight over the observed period, there was inter-individual variation in weight changes. However, contrary to our hypothesis, results show that neither food insecurity, hamster purchases, nor loss of income were predictors of weight change or weight/height ratio in our models, and none of our machine learning models outperformed a trivial predictor using the mean of all values for each prediction. In conclusion, this study does not add support for the notion that perceived food insecurity can predict weight gain or a higher weight/height ratio at a time of environmental uncertainties. This suggests that acute alterations in appetite reported upon triggering environmental harshness have no effect beyond that moment. Possibly life-history strategies acquired earlier in life remained stable during this crisis with respect to food consumption and weight.