Following an Experienced Shepherd: How a Leader’s Tenure Affects the Outcome of International Crises

Abstract

Previous research has shown that a leader's preconflict tenure affects the likelihood of conflict occurrence, while conflict outcomes affect a leader's postconflict tenure. I argue that a leader's preconflict tenure should affect not only conflict occurrence but conflict outcomes as well, specifically by increasing a leader's professional competence and increasing the likelihood that the state will emerge victorious from international crises. This effect should weaken as the constraints upon leaders' behaviors increase and their competence becomes less important for policy outcomes. Using a bivariate probit model with selection and a dyadic data set on international crises experienced by 195 countries between 1950 and 2000, I find moderate-to-strong support for the hypotheses.

Local Leaders and Tourism Development: A Case Study in China

“…Their personal characteristics constrain their behavior in the decision-making process, leading to different political and economic outcomes (Buckley et al 2014; Asako et al 2015; François, Panel, and Weill 2020). Moreover, as a basic mode in the career development of the local leaders, the tenure system has become a crucial factor to study the behavior of the local leaders (Chiozza and Goemans 2004; McCabe et al 2008; Bak and Palmer 2010; Ausderan 2015).…”