Follow up estimation of Aedes aegypti entomological parameters and mathematical modellings

Abstract

The dengue virus is a vector-borne disease transmitted by mosquito Aedes aegypti and the incidence is strongly influenced by temperature and humidity which vary seasonally. To assess the effects of temperature on dengue transmission, mathematical models are developed based on the population dynamics theory. However, depending on the hypotheses of the modelling, different outcomes regarding to the risk of epidemics are obtained. We address this question comparing two simple models supplied with model's parameters estimated from temperature-controlled experiments, especially the entomological parameters regarded to the mosquito's life cycle in different temperatures. Once obtained the mortality and transition rates of different stages comprising the life cycle of mosquito and the oviposition rate, we compare the capacity of vector reproduction (the basic offspring number) and the risk of infection (basic reproduction number) provided by two models. The extended model, which is more realistic, showed that both mosquito population and dengue risk are situated at higher values than the simplified model, even that the basic offspring number is lower.

Mathematical assessment of the role of temperature and rainfall on mosquito population dynamics

“…Numerous mathematical models have been designed and used to assess the impact of climate change and seasonality on the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne diseases, such as malaria (Agusto et al 2015;Ebi et al 2005;Jaenisch and Patz 2002;Mordecai et al 2012;Paaijmans et al 2009), dengue (Chen et al 2010;Hales et al 2002;Pham et al 2011;Wu et al 2009;Yang et al 2011), chikungunya (Fischer et al 2013;Meason and Paterson 2014) and WNv (Abdelrazec et al 2015;Wang et al 2011). For instance, such models allow for the determination of parameters, or variables, that influences the life-cycle of the mosquitoes (Ahumada et al 2004;Cailly et al 2012;Tran et al 2013).…”

Modeling of dengue occurrences early warning involving temperature and rainfall factors

“…Temperature would affect the survival and living habits of the mosquito [3,[13][14][15]. The influence of temperature on mortality of larva, pupae and adult mosquitoes, the ability of mosquito to lay eggs, and the phase transition were modeled into functions of temperature variable [11,12]. In addition, the effect of rainfall to the larva population has been developed [16].…”

“…Egg, larva, and pupae phases were included in the aquatic phase and adult phase was included in non-aquatic phase. Mosquito model considering aquatic phase (egg, larva, pupae) and non-aquatic phase (adult) was discussed by involving temperature [11] and then was expanded by considering larva, pupae, and adult phases [12]. The entomological parameters for the mosquito model were estimated based on temperature-controlled experiments [11,12].…”

“…Many researchers have done researches to handle and prevent dengue by developing mathematical models for mosquito population considering the life cycle and control effort using temephos spraying and thermal fogging [7], dengue disease transmission with two strain viruses [8], controlling dengue disease transmission using repellent for adult and children [9], effect of rainfall to mosquito population and the effect of climate change to dengue disease transmission in unaffected dengue areas [10] and effects of temperature to the mosquito life cycle [11,12]. ) which are the threshold values are derived from the models under constant parameters assumption.…”

Un modelo de crecimiento poblacional de Ædes Ægypti con capacidad de carga logística

“…En lo concerniente al modelado matemático del ciclo biológico del mosquito y sus sitios de reproducción, existen trabajos: primero, que evalúan la incidencia del dengue que varía con la temperatura, presentando en primer lugar un modelo compartimental que abarca tres etapas del ciclo de vida del mosquito: larva, pupa y adulto, donde la tasa de producción de larvas efectiva fue dada por una función logística, en que intervienen la capacidad disponible de los recipientes para recibir las larvas de los huevos eclosionados y la capacidad de carga total de los recipientes [40]; segundo, que describen la dinámica de la enfermedad del dengue dentro de las poblaciones preadulta y adulta mediante el desarrollo de un modelo de compartimentos teniendo en cuenta los controles químicos y control mecánico aplicado sobre los mosquitos. Con respecto al control mecánico, se basa en eliminar una fracción de mosquitos inmaduros de cada tipo de recipiente, con una capacidad máxima de almacenamiento [41]; tercero, que estudian la dinámica de crecimiento poblacional del A. Aegypti con base en los modelos tipo presa-depredador y considerando control químico y biológico del mosquito, el cual es considerado como la presa.…”