Fog Forecasting for the Southern Region: A Conceptual Model Approach

Croft, Paul J.; Pfost, Russell L.; Medlin, Jeffrey M.; Johnson, Gregory A.

doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1997)012<0545:ffftsr>2.0.co;2

Cited by 63 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…This diagnosis is similar to the conceptual scheme suggested by CROFT (1997). The LWC rule in (1a) comes from the definition of fog visibility range.…”

Section: Rule-based Fog Detection Schemesupporting

confidence: 74%

Forecast of Low Visibility and Fog from NCEP: Current Status and Efforts

Zhou

Gültepe

et al. 2011

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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Based on the visibility analysis data during November 2009 through April 2010 over North America from the Aviation Digital Database Service (ADDS), the performance of low visibility/fog predictions from the current operational 12 km-NAM, 13 km-RUC and 32 km-WRF-NMM models at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was evaluated. The evaluation shows that the performance of the low visibility/fog forecasts from these models is still poor in comparison to those of precipitation forecasts from the same models. In order to improve the skill of the low visibility/fog prediction, three efforts have been made at NCEP, including application of a rule-based fog detection scheme, extension of the NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) to fog ensemble probabilistic forecasts, and a combination of these two applications. How to apply these techniques in fog prediction is described and evaluated with the same visibility analysis data over the same period of time. The evaluation results demonstrate that using the multi-rule-based fog detection scheme significantly improves the fog forecast skill for all three models relative to visibility-diagnosed fog prediction, and with a combination of both rule-based fog detection and the ensemble technique, the performance skill of fog forecasting can be further raised.

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“…This diagnosis is similar to the conceptual scheme suggested by CROFT (1997). The LWC rule in (1a) comes from the definition of fog visibility range.…”

Section: Rule-based Fog Detection Schemesupporting

confidence: 74%

Forecast of Low Visibility and Fog from NCEP: Current Status and Efforts

Zhou

Gültepe

et al. 2011

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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“…The first approach to the fog forecasting problem is to better understand the various mechanisms involved in its formation, maintenance, and dissipation (Tardif and Rasmussen 2007). Conceptual models have been developed to aid in the forecasting of fog events (Croft et al 1997;De Villiers and Van Heerden 2007) for specific locations. These conceptual models all include a fog climatology, although other tools such as numerical weather prediction guidance and sounding analysis form part of the conceptual model approach.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatological Characteristics of Fog at Cape Town International Airport

Schalkwyk

Dyson

2013

Weather and Forecasting

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The character of fog at Cape Town International Airport (CTIA), South Africa, is investigated, using 13 yr of historical hourly data during the period 1997–2010. Hourly surface observations are used to identify fog types that most frequently affect CTIA, by using an objective fog-type classification method that classifies fog events according to their primary formation mechanisms. Fog-type characteristics, such as the minimum visibility, duration, and time of onset and dissipation, are determined. Self-organizing maps (SOMs) are used to determine the dominant synoptic circulation types associated with fog at CTIA. Results show that radiative processes are the most common cause of fog, with an enhanced likelihood of radiation fog in winter. Cloud-base-lowering fog and advection fog events are more likely at the start of the fog season. As the fog season (March–August) progresses, synoptic circulations associated with fog change from a dominant low pressure pattern along the west coast in March and April to a dominant interior high pressure pattern toward July and August. The techniques presented may be used to provide aviation forecasters with a detailed description of the types of fog that frequently occur, their characteristics, and the synoptic circulation associated therewith.

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“…The most common scenario considered when invoking fog formation over land involves  nocturnal radiative cooling under light wind conditions (Roach 1995), while dissipation typically occurs a few hours after sunrise as a result of warming from sensible heat fluxes over a surface heated by solar radiation (the so-called fog burn-off). However, this statement hides a more complex reality, with regions experiencing fog events due to conditions such as advection fog or stratus lowering rather than the typical radiative fog event (Croft et al 1997;Tardif and Rasmussen 2007). Furthermore, the nature and concentration of aerosols present in the surface layer are known to be critical parameters throughout the fog life cycle as their chemical and microphysical properties control the activation process (Rangognio et al 2009), and their optical properties affect radiative cooling and heating (Elias et al 2009).…”

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confidence: 99%

Parisfog

Haeffelin¹,

Bergot²,

Elías³

et al. 2010

Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

139

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, T. bergoT, T. elias, r. Tardif, d. Carrer, P. CHazeTTe, M. ColoMb, P. drobinski, e. duPonT, J.-C. duPonT, l. goMes, l. Musson-genon, C. PieTras, a. Plana-faTTori, a. ProTaT, J. rangognio, J.-C. rauT, s. réMy, d. riCHard, J. sCiare, and X. zHang A field experiment covering more than 100 fog and near-fog situations during the winter of 2006-07 investigated the dynamical, microphysical, and radiative processes that drive the life cycle of fog.

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Fog Forecasting for the Southern Region: A Conceptual Model Approach

Cited by 63 publications

References 13 publications

Forecast of Low Visibility and Fog from NCEP: Current Status and Efforts

Forecast of Low Visibility and Fog from NCEP: Current Status and Efforts

Climatological Characteristics of Fog at Cape Town International Airport

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