Fog Analysis and Forecast by PAFOG Model in Brazilian Northeast

Abstract

There are few studies on fog in the Brazilian Northeast (BNE) and they show that the formation processes are different in each location. Data from various sources were used for 9 years (2008-2016): a) surface data obtained by REDEMET; b) radiosonde by the University of Wyoming; c) satellites images from the GOES and METEOSAT available on CPTEC; d) reanalysis products of the ECMWF, NOAA and NCAR. Meteorological fields and simulated vertical profiles were plotted for synoptic and thermodynamic analysis. In Maceio (M) 20 cases were reported, formed by surface trough, only one event was identified from satellite product. In Campina Grande (CG) 105 cases were recorded, most of which were caused by a surface ridge; only four events were identified by satellite products. All cases in all cities had a shorter duration than observed by METAR and satisfactory results by PAFOG were obtained. Fog forecast by PAFOG was satisfactory with 6 and 12 h antecedence in M and CG. Fog formation in the BNE is atypical, especially in Maceio, where it is rarely identified by satellite data. However, the prediction by the PAFOG model presents satisfactory results up to 12 h antecedence.