Fluctuation of Public Interest in COVID-19 in the United States: Retrospective Analysis of Google Trends Search Data (Preprint)

Abstract

BACKGROUND In the absence of vaccines and established treatments, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are fundamental tools to control coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission. NPIs require public interest to be successful. In the United States, there is a lack of published research on the factors that influence public interest in COVID-19. Using Google Trends, we examined the US level of public interest in COVID-19 and how it correlated to testing and with other countries. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to determine how public interest in COVID-19 in the United States changed over time and the key factors that drove this change, such as testing. US public interest in COVID-19 was compared to that in countries that have been more successful in their containment and mitigation strategies. METHODS In this retrospective study, Google Trends was used to analyze the volume of internet searches within the United States relating to COVID-19, focusing on dates between December 31, 2019, and March 24, 2020. The volume of internet searches related to COVID-19 was compared to that in other countries. RESULTS Throughout January and February 2020, there was limited search interest in COVID-19 within the United States. Interest declined for the first 21 days of February. A similar decline was seen in geographical regions that were later found to be experiencing undetected community transmission in February. Between March 9 and March 12, 2020, there was a rapid rise in search interest. This rise in search interest was positively correlated with the rise of positive tests for SARS-CoV-2 (6.3, 95% CI −2.9 to 9.7; <i>P</i><.001). Within the United States, it took 52 days for search interest to rise substantially after the first positive case; in countries with more successful outbreak control, search interest rose in less than 15 days. CONCLUSIONS Containment and mitigation strategies require public interest to be successful. The initial level of COVID-19 public interest in the United States was limited and even decreased during a time when containment and mitigation strategies were being established. A lack of public interest in COVID-19 existed in the United States when containment and mitigation policies were in place. Based on our analysis, it is clear that US policy makers need to develop novel methods of communicating COVID-19 public health initiatives.

Web-based surveillance of respiratory infection outbreaks: retrospective analysis of Italian COVID-19 epidemic waves using Google Trends

“…During the COVID-19 pandemic, several studies have been conducted using web-based platforms where users self-report or search for their healthrelated issues. Search engines, particularly Google (1,(25)(26)(27)(28)(29)(30)(31)(32)(33)(34)(35)(36)(37)(38)(39)(40)(41), have been considered for COVID-19 surveillance purposes, highlighting their potential as complementary sources of information for population-level surveillance of pandemic spread. Previous studies using these data have yielded valuable lessons in their appropriate use, including avoiding non-specific search terms and ensuring suitable analyses (42).…”