Flow, Wind, and Stochastic Connectivity Modeling Infectious Diseases

Abstract

We study in this paper the trends of the evolution of different infections using a SIR flow (first-order ODE system), completed by a differential inclusion, a geodesic motion in a gyroscopic field of forces, and a stochastic SIR perturbation of the flow (Itô ODE system). We are interested in mathematical analysis, bringing new results on studied evolutionary models: infection flow together with a differential inclusion, bounds of evolution, dual description of disease evolution, log-optimal and rapid path, epidemic wind (geometric dynamics), stochastic equations of evolution, and stochastic connectivity. We hope that the paper will be a guideline for strategizing optimal sociopolitical countermeasures to mitigate infectious diseases.