Floods in Tabasco, Mexico: a diagnosis and proposal for courses of action

Aparicio, Javier; Austria, Polioptro Martínez; Guitron, Alberto; Ramírez, Aldo I.

doi:10.1111/j.1753-318x.2009.01026.x

Cited by 32 publications

(21 citation statements)

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“…Moreover, while we examined river and coastal flooding separately, future research could examine flood risk under compound events. This joint modelling of coastal and river floods is relevant for capturing situations when high precipitation and consequent river discharge coincide with a storm surge along the coast, or when river discharge to the ocean is hampered by a risen sea-level (Aparicio et al, 2009). New time series of surge and tide levels at the global scale (Muis et al, 2016) enable developing research in this area.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic evaluation of climate risk adaptation strategies: Cost-benefit analysis of flood protection in Tabasco, Mexico

Haer

Botzen

Zavala‐Hidalgo

et al. 2017

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RESUMENLas pérdidas económicas debidas a desastres naturales se han incrementado en las últimas décadas como resultado del desarrollo socioeconómico y probablemente del cambio climático. Las proyecciones indican que esta tendencia al alza continuará, lo cual resalta la necesidad de adoptar estrategias de adaptación. Esto a su vez pone de manifiesto la necesidad de establecer mejores estrategias de adaptación adecuadas para hacer frente a los embates inciertos del cambio climático. El presente estudio muestra cómo puede aplicarse una cascada de modelaciones de riesgo y desastres, y un análisis de costo-beneficio, para obtener un primer indicador de estrategias de adaptación eficientes desde el punto de vista económico. Este enfoque se aplica a un análisis de riesgos de inundación y a la conveniencia de contar con protección contra inundaciones en el estado de Tabasco, México, el cual padece graves inundaciones casi anualmente. Los resultados muestran que el daño anual esperado por inundaciones costeras se incrementará de los actuales USD 530 millones a USD 4120 millones en 2080 como resultado del desarrollo socioeconómico y el cambio climático. En cuanto al daño estimado por inundaciones fluviales, se espera que se incremente de los actuales USD 1790 millones a USD 10 600 millones en 2080 si no se establecen medidas de adaptación. Con base en el análisis de riesgo y costo-beneficio de la construcción de infraestructura contra inundaciones, establecimos en al menos 100 años los estándares óptimos de protección desde el punto de vista económico para ambos tipos de inundación. Nuestras principales conclusiones son robustas con relación a la incertidumbre sobre los efectos del cambio climático en riesgos de inundación, los daños indirectos causados por éstas, la extensión de los terrenos inundables y la tasa de descuento social adoptada. Analizamos la forma en que nuestro enfoque multidisciplinario puede ayudar a los encargados de la toma de decisiones respecto al manejo de riesgos de inundación, y la manera en que investigaciones venideras pueden ampliar nuestro método a análisis locales específicos, que son necesarios para desarrollar planes de adaptación a nivel local. ABSTRACTEconomic losses as a result of natural hazards have been rising over the past few decades due to socio-economic development and perhaps climate change. This upwards trend is projected to continue, highlighting the need for adequate adaptation strategies. This raises the question of how to determine which adaptation strategies are preferred to cope with uncertain climate change impacts. This study shows how a multi-disciplinary cascade of hazard modelling, risk modelling, and a cost-benefit analysis can be applied to provide a first indicator of economically efficient adaptation strategies. We apply this approach to an analysis of flood risk and the desirability of flood protection in the state of Tabasco in Mexico, which faces severe flooding on an almost yearly basis. The results show that expected annual damage caused by coastal flooding i...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic evaluation of climate risk adaptation strategies: Cost-benefit analysis of flood protection in Tabasco, Mexico

Haer

Botzen

Zavala‐Hidalgo

et al. 2017

Atm

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“…Rains reached depths greater than 50 mm in some locations of the basin of the Peñitas dam, causing the need to open the dam floodgates. Other rivers of the drainage system that flows into Villahermosa also reached high levels, close to the critical thresholds defined for issuing alerts [9]. Generated floods covered an area equivalent to 70% of the Tabasco state territory affecting more than 1 million people.…”

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confidence: 66%

Linking Flood Susceptibility Mapping and Governance in Mexico for Flood Mitigation: A Participatory Approach Model

Bonasia

Lucatello

2019

Atmosphere

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In many countries of the world, floods continue to cause extensive damage to people and properties. This is also the case of Mexico, where meteorological phenomena cause flooding every year. In order to mitigate continuous losses and damages, crucial tools like hazard maps are essential for prevention. This review article analyzes the main reasons for the shortcomings on disasters caused by floods in Mexico. We argue that strong linking between the realm of technical hazard mappings and local governance as an integrated approach to manage disasters can be a basis for a new prevention policy in Mexico. This consideration is achieved through the description of the available information on the meteorological events that have caused major damage in recent years and the analysis of the interventions carried out at decision-making level by the government and the national civil protection system. The application that hazard maps have in the world and their usefulness is also discussed. From the analysis carried out it emerges that the inefficiency of the system in preventing damage caused by floods in Mexico is due to both the lack of high-level expertise in hazard maps design and the lack of their use in decision-making policies at the local level.

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“…Concurrent with this scenario, recent catastrophic flooding events have occurred in the Tabasco and Chiapas Mexican states, resulting in economic -and more dramatically -human losses (Aparicio et al 2009). Such events are commonly and hastily attributed to climate change, especially by political leaders for whom invoking the planetary dimension of global change is often a way to disclaim any direct responsibility.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global climate change and local watershed management as potential drivers of salinity variation in a tropical coastal lagoon (Laguna de Terminos, Mexico)

et al. 2016

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Aquatic SciencesGlobal climate change and local watershed management as potential drivers of salinity variation in a tropical coastal lagoon (Laguna de Terminos, Mexico).--Manuscript Draft-- Abstract:The wide range of ecological goods and services provided by tropical coastal lagoons and wetlands are under considerable pressure due to the synergistic effects of local anthropogenic impact and global climate change. Salinity is an essential ecological driver which depends on the balance between marine and estuarine inputs, and the ongoing decline in fisheries recruitment in the Gulf of Mexico has been linked to environmental degradation of coastal ecosystems, among which long-term changes in salinity is a potential key factor. As part of a joint study of the wide and shallow coastal lagoon of Terminos in south eastern Mexico, we established that salinity variability was directly related to river discharge variability. Minimum discharge from the Usumacinta River and its tributary the Palizada River during the wet season of 2009 maintained led to very unusually high salinity in the lagoon. Data collected over the past 60 years revealed a sustained long-term increase in river flow rates in the Usumacinta watershed, even though precipitation rates during the same period were constant. This indicates that the increase in river flow rates may be attributable to anthropogenic alteration of the watershed rather than to a long-term impact of climate change. The 2009 positive salinity anomaly was further related to an El Niño Modoki episode. Through the study of potential short-to long-term interactions between salinity, river discharges, precipitation and El Nino-La Nina oscillations, we reached conclusions that should be of great value to environmental management and sustainable development. Powered by Editorial Manager® and ProduXion Manager® from Aries Systems CorporationSuggested Reviewers:James Cloern, PhD Senior scientist, United States Geological Survey, Menlo Park, USA jecloern@usgs.gov Dr. James Cloern is a renowned senior research scientist working on comparative ecology and biogeochemistry of estuaries to understand how they respond as ecosystems to climatic-hydrologic variability and human disturbance Carlos Gay-García, PhD Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México D.F., Mexico cgay@unam.mx Dr. Carlos Gay García is the top climate change specialist in Mexico and will be able to assess the local to global dimension of the presented work. However, is position in the same research center as 2 co-authors could present a potential conflict of interest 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 2- Powered by Editorial Manager® and ProduXion Manager® from Aries Systems Corporation 1- Global climate change and local watershed management as potential drivers of salinity vari...

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Floods in Tabasco, Mexico: a diagnosis and proposal for courses of action

Cited by 32 publications

References 0 publications

Economic evaluation of climate risk adaptation strategies: Cost-benefit analysis of flood protection in Tabasco, Mexico

Economic evaluation of climate risk adaptation strategies: Cost-benefit analysis of flood protection in Tabasco, Mexico

Linking Flood Susceptibility Mapping and Governance in Mexico for Flood Mitigation: A Participatory Approach Model

Global climate change and local watershed management as potential drivers of salinity variation in a tropical coastal lagoon (Laguna de Terminos, Mexico)

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