Flood susceptibility modelling using novel hybrid approach of reduced-error pruning trees with bagging and random subspace ensembles

Chen, Wei; Hong, Haoyuan; Li, Shaojun; Shahabi, Himan; Wang, Yi; Wang, Xiaojing; Ahmad, Baharin Bin

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.05.089

Cited by 242 publications

(117 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…TWI is an important conditioning factor in landslide occurrence. It is a factor of soil moisture that has a profound influence on the most of landslides [77][78][79]. In this study, the TWI ranged from 0.…”

Section: Landslide Conditioning Factorsmentioning

confidence: 81%

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping for the Muchuan County (China): A Comparison Between Bivariate Statistical Models (WoE, EBF, and IoE) and Their Ensembles with Logistic Regression

Wang

2019

Symmetry

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The main purpose of this study is to apply three bivariate statistical models, namely weight of evidence (WoE), evidence belief function (EBF) and index of entropy (IoE), and their ensembles with logistic regression (LR) for landslide susceptibility mapping in Muchuan County, China. First, a landslide inventory map contained 279 landslides was obtained through the field investigation and interpretation of aerial photographs. Next, the landslides were randomly divided into two parts for training and validation with the ratio of 70/30. In addition, according to the regional geological environment characteristics, twelve landslide conditioning factors were selected, including altitude, plan curvature, profile curvature, slope angle, distance to roads, distance to rivers, topographic wetness index (TWI), normalized different vegetation index (NDVI), land use, soil, and lithology. Subsequently, the landslide susceptibility mapping was carried out by the above models. Eventually, the accuracy of this research was validated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the results indicated that the landslide susceptibility map produced by EBF-LR model has the highest accuracy (0.826), followed by IoE-LR model (0.825), WoE-LR model (0.792), EBF model (0.791), IoE model (0.778), and WoE model (0.753). The results of this study can provide references of landslide prevention and land use planning for local government.Symmetry 2019, 11, 762 2 of 24years, machine learning method has been gradually applied in landslide susceptibility mapping researches, such as artificial neural network (ANN) [17][18][19], support vector machine (SVM) [20][21][22], logistic model tree (LMT) [23,24], rotation forest (RF) [25,26], classification and regression tree (CART) [27,28], adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) [29,30], and genetic algorithm (GA) [31,32]. Furthermore, statistical approach is another widely-used model which can also be divided into two types: bivariate and multivariate. In statistical approaches, the weight of each class of every factor was calculated by overlying the landslide inventory map and landslide conditioning factors map [33,34]. The frequently-used statistical approaches are frequency ratio (FR) [35][36][37], logistic regression (LR), evidential belief function (EBF) [38,39], weights of evidence (WoE) [40,41], certainty factor (CF) [42,43], and information value (IV) [44,45].In this paper, three bivariate statistical methods, namely weight of evidence (WoE), evidence belief function (EBF), index of entropy (IoE), coupled with logistic regression (LR) were introduced to carry out the landslide susceptibility mapping in Muchuan County, which lies in the southeast of Sichuan Province, China. All the approaches were first applied in Muchuan County and the main purpose of this article is to obtain the landslide susceptibility maps through the above models. The main difference between this study and literatures referenced above is to achieve accurate landslide susceptibility maps for...

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Section: Landslide Conditioning Factorsmentioning

confidence: 81%

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping for the Muchuan County (China): A Comparison Between Bivariate Statistical Models (WoE, EBF, and IoE) and Their Ensembles with Logistic Regression

Wang

2019

Symmetry

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“…Furthermore, as the current case study was in a region with diverse topography, it is recommended that future researchers examine the models' prediction power in mountainous areas and flat areas separately, to determine which model is better for which type of topography. The main limitation of the current methodology is that the models used resulted in flood susceptibility maps (prone areas without depth, velocity, and hydraulic details) which differ from the results of 2D flood inundation models [97]. Therefore, it is recommended that future researchers compare the results of the present study with the 2D results of numerical models such as HEC-RAS.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…These formations had a high potential for saturating processes and hence allowed more infiltration than the low (37.568%) and moderate (31.369%) permeability formations with all other factors constant. The regions with volcanic rocks and low permeability allow more runoff to be transferred into streams, creating conditions where overbank can occur [23,97]. On the other hand, streams both collect water from runoff generated upland adjacent to the streams and from rainfall falling directly on them.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood Spatial Modeling in Northern Iran Using Remote Sensing and GIS: A Comparison between Evidential Belief Functions and Its Ensemble with a Multivariate Logistic Regression Model

et al. 2019

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Floods are some of the most dangerous and most frequent natural disasters occurring in the northern region of Iran. Flooding in this area frequently leads to major urban, financial, anthropogenic, and environmental impacts. Therefore, the development of flood susceptibility maps used to identify flood zones in the catchment is necessary for improved flood management and decision making. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of an Evidential Belief Function (EBF) model, both as an individual model and in combination with Logistic Regression (LR) methods, in preparing flood susceptibility maps for the Haraz Catchment in the Mazandaran Province, Iran. The spatial database created consisted of a flood inventory, altitude, slope angle, plan curvature, Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Stream Power Index (SPI), distance from river, rainfall, geology, land use, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the region. After obtaining the required information from various sources, 151 of 211 recorded flooding points were used for model training and preparation of the flood susceptibility maps. For validation, the results of the models were compared to the 60 remaining flooding points. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn, and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) was calculated to obtain the accuracy of the flood susceptibility maps prepared through success rates (using training data) and prediction rates (using validation data). The AUC results indicated that the EBF, EBF from LR, EBF-LR (enter), and EBF-LR (stepwise) success rates were 94.61%, 67.94%, 86.45%, and 56.31%, respectively, and the prediction rates were 94.55%, 66.41%, 83.19%, and 52.98%, respectively. The results showed that the EBF model had the highest accuracy in predicting flood susceptibility within the catchment, in which 15% of the total areas were located in high and very high susceptibility classes, and 62% were located in low and very low susceptibility classes. These results can be used for the planning and management of areas vulnerable to floods in order to prevent flood-induced damage; the results may also be useful for natural disaster assessment.In recent years, many statistical and probabilistic models have been tested to prepare flood susceptibility maps [9,10]. Geographic Information System (GIS) has been used as an effective tool for spatial analysis and data manipulation due to its ability to handle large amounts of spatial data [11]. Specifically, the combination of statistical and probabilistic models with Remote Sensing (RS) and GIS has been widely used by different researchers [1,12]. Additionally, some scientists and researchers have studied natural disasters, specifically floods and FSM, with the help of RS and GIS, using different models such as Decision-Tree (DT) [6,13], Support Vector Machine (SVM) [14,15], Frequency Ratio (FR) [16,17], Evidential Belief Function (EBF) [18][19][20], EBF-AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) [21], Logistic Regression (LR) [22], Shannon's entropy and...

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“…GESMs were created using each of the four models: ADTree, RF-ADTree, Bagging-ADTree, and LR. Finally, the models were evaluated and validated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and by calculating the area under the ROC curve (AUC) for each model [93][94][95]. The AUC values are between 0 and 1, which can be interpreted following these categories: 0.6-0.7 have poor, 0.6-0.7 medium, 0.7-0.8 good, 0.8-0.9 very good, and 0.9-1 excellent accuracy [9,17,19].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Gully Head-Cut Distribution Modeling Using Machine Learning Methods—A Case Study of N.W. Iran

Arabameri

Chen

Blaschke

et al. 2019

Water

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To more effectively prevent and manage the scourge of gully erosion in arid and semi-arid regions, we present a novel-ensemble intelligence approach-bagging-based alternating decision-tree classifier (bagging-ADTree)-and use it to model a landscape's susceptibility to gully erosion based on 18 gully-erosion conditioning factors. The model's goodness-of-fit and prediction performance are compared to three other machine learning algorithms (single alternating decision tree, rotational-forest-based alternating decision tree (RF-ADTree), and benchmark logistic regression). To achieve this, a gully-erosion inventory was created for the study area, the Chah Mousi watershed, Iran by combining archival records containing reports of gully erosion, remotely sensed data from Google Earth, and geolocated sites of gully head-cuts gathered in a field survey. A total of 119 gully head-cuts were identified and mapped. To train the models' analysis and prediction capabilities, 83 head-cuts (70% of the total) and the corresponding measures of the conditioning factors were input into each model. The results from the models were validated using the data pertaining to the remaining 36 gully locations (30%). Next, the frequency ratio is used to identify which conditioning-factor classes have the strongest correlation with gully erosion. Using random-forest modeling, the relative importance of each of the conditioning factors was determined. Based on the random-forest results, the top eight factors in this study area are distance-to-road, drainage density, distance-to-stream, LU/LC, annual precipitation, topographic wetness index, NDVI, and elevation. Finally, based on goodness-of-fit and AUROC of the success rate curve (SRC) and prediction rate curve (PRC), the results indicate that the bagging-ADTree ensemble model had the best performance, with SRC (0.964) and PRC (0.978). RF-ADTree (SRC = 0.952 and PRC = 0.971), ADTree (SRC = 0.926 and PRC = 0.965), and LR (SRC = 0.867 and PRC = 0.870) were the subsequent best performers. The results also indicate that bagging and RF, as meta-classifiers, improved the performance of the ADTree model as a base classifier. The bagging-ADTree model's results indicate that 24.28% of the study area is classified as having high and very high susceptibility to gully erosion. The new ensemble model accurately Water 2020, 12, 16 2 of 26 identified the areas that are susceptible to gully erosion based on the past patterns of formation, but it also provides highly accurate predictions of future gully development. The novel ensemble method introduced in this research is recommended for use to evaluate the patterns of gullying in arid and semi-arid environments and can effectively identify the most salient conditioning factors that promote the development and expansion of gullies in erosion-susceptible environments.

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Flood susceptibility modelling using novel hybrid approach of reduced-error pruning trees with bagging and random subspace ensembles

Cited by 242 publications

References 44 publications

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping for the Muchuan County (China): A Comparison Between Bivariate Statistical Models (WoE, EBF, and IoE) and Their Ensembles with Logistic Regression

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping for the Muchuan County (China): A Comparison Between Bivariate Statistical Models (WoE, EBF, and IoE) and Their Ensembles with Logistic Regression

Flood Spatial Modeling in Northern Iran Using Remote Sensing and GIS: A Comparison between Evidential Belief Functions and Its Ensemble with a Multivariate Logistic Regression Model

Gully Head-Cut Distribution Modeling Using Machine Learning Methods—A Case Study of N.W. Iran

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