Flood Risks in Sinking Delta Cities: Time for a Reevaluation?

Yin, Jie; Jonkman, Sebastiaan N.; Lin, Ning; Yu, Dapeng; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Wilby, Robert L.; Pan, Ming; Wood, Eric F.; Bricker, Jeremy D.; Ke, Qian; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhao, Qing; Ge, Jianzhong; Wang, Jun

doi:10.1029/2020ef001614

Cited by 47 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 68 publications

(77 reference statements)

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“…[2017]) do not adequately take into account local features that affect flooding. Numerous large‐scale modeling studies have highlighted the need for flood adaptation databases (Sampson et al., 2015; Scussolini et al., 2016; Yin et al., 2020), although those currently available have significant limitations. For example, flood defenses in the Wing et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Third, even the most highly resolved large-scale flood models (e.g., the 30 m resolution US model of Wing et al [2017]) do not adequately take into account local features that affect flooding. Numerous large-scale modeling studies have highlighted the need for flood adaptation databases (Sampson et al, 2015;Scussolini et al, 2016;Yin et al, 2020), although those currently available have significant limitations. For example, flood defenses in the Wing et al (2017) model taken from the US Army Corps of Engineers National Levee Database which is thought to be only ∼30% complete (American Society of Civil Engineers, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Combined Modeling of US Fluvial, Pluvial, and Coastal Flood Hazard Under Current and Future Climates

Bates

Quinn

Sampson

et al. 2021

Water Resources Research

195

165

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This study reports a new and significantly enhanced analysis of US flood hazard at 30 m spatial resolution. Specific improvements include updated hydrography data, new methods to determine channel depth, more rigorous flood frequency analysis, output downscaling to property tract level, and inclusion of the impact of local interventions in the flooding system. For the first time, we consider pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flood hazards within the same framework and provide projections for both current (rather than historic average) conditions and for future time periods centered on 2035 and 2050 under the RCP4.5 emissions pathway. Validation against high-quality local models and the entire catalog of FEMA 1% annual probability flood maps yielded Critical Success Index values in the range 0.69-0.82. Significant improvements over a previous pluvial/fluvial model version are shown for high-frequency events and coastal zones, along with minor improvements in areas where model performance was already good. The result is the first comprehensive and consistent national-scale analysis of flood hazard for the conterminous US for both current and future conditions. Even though we consider a stabilization emissions scenario and a near-future time horizon, we project clear patterns of changing flood hazard (3σ changes in 100 years inundated area of −3.8 to +16% at 1° scale), that are significant when considered as a proportion of the land area where human use is possible or in terms of the currently protected land area where the standard of flood defense protection may become compromised by this time. Plain Language Summary We develop a method to estimate past, present, and future flood risk for all properties in the conterminous United States whether affected by river, coastal or rainfall flooding. The analysis accounts for variability within environmental factors including changes in sea level rise, hurricane intensity and landfall locations, precipitation patterns, and river discharge. We show that even for a conservative climate change trajectory we can expect locally significant changes in the land area at risk from floods by 2050, and by this time defenses protecting 2,200 km 2 of land may be compromised. The complete dataset has been made available via a website (https://floodfactor.com/) created by the First Street Foundation in order to increase public awareness of the threat posed by flooding to safety and livelihoods. BATES ET AL.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combined Modeling of US Fluvial, Pluvial, and Coastal Flood Hazard Under Current and Future Climates

Bates

Quinn

Sampson

et al. 2021

Water Resources Research

195

165

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“…CC BY 4.0 License. protection standard) compared to the high floodwall (1000-year period flood protection standard) along the mid-and downstream urban regions of the Huangpu River (Yin et al, 2020). Furthermore, because the region has a northern subtropical monsoon climate, pluvial flood events caused by extreme rainfall, typically associated with typhoons, are frequently recorded during the flood season (June to September) (Yin & Zhang, 2015).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Cannata et al (2011) used a GIS-based approach to simplify a 2D dam break simulation. Yin et al (2020) predicted dike failures and flood inundations in Shanghai, China, under various emission scenarios using an interdisciplinary process-based approach.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Levee breach-induced compound flood modeling in Qianbujing Creek, Shanghai during Typhoon "Fitow"

Ma¹,

Yin²,

Zhang³

et al. 2021

Preprint

Self Cite

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Abstract. Levee breach-induced flooding occurs occasionally but always causes considerable losses. A serious flood event occurred due to the collapse of a 15-m-long levee section in Qianbujing Creek, Shanghai, China, during typhoon "Fitow" in Oct, 2013. Heavy rainfall associated with the typhoon intensified the flood severity (extent and depth). This study investigates the flood evolution to understand the dynamic nature of flooding and the compound effect using a well-established 2D hydro-inundation model (Floodmap) to reconstruct this typical event. Our simulation results provide a comprehensive view of the spatial patterns of the flood evolution. The worst-hit areas are predicted to be low-lying settlement and farmland. Temporal evaluations suggest that the most critical time for flooding prevention is in the early hours after dike failure. In low-elevation areas, temporary drainage measures and flood defenses are equally important. The validation of the model demonstrates the reliability of the approach.

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“…Recently, such studies have focused on the wetland systems in the Mekong River delta, Vietnam (Nguyen et al, 2016(Nguyen et al, , 2017Binh et al, 2020), on the low-lying Jiangsu coast, China (Bao et al, 2019a;2019b), and the Yangtze River delta (Ma et al, 2018). For the megacity of Shanghai, which is situated at the Yangtze River mouth, scholars have identified high flood risk in the near future as a key concern (Yin et al, 2020), and evaluated the functioning of the coastal wetlands in flood hazard mitigation (Du et al, 2020). However, the balance between coastal wetland utilization and climate change adaptation needs further consideration, as is particularly the case for China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wetland Utilization and Adaptation Practice of a Coastal Megacity: A Case Study of Chongming Island, Shanghai, China

Bao

Gao

2021

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Coastal urban areas are faced with risks induced by global warming and sea level rise, which puts pressure on regional sustainable development. In particular, land use adjustment is closely related to climate change for a coastal megacity. Coastal wetlands on the edge of the megacity represent a vulnerable ecosystem and a key area in terms of the resilient adaptation strategy. However, the interrelationship between the development of these wetlands and the megacity’s adaptation practice has not been sufficiently analyzed. From a historical perspective, based on document synthesis and field investigation, we attempt in this study to reveal long-term land use stages and driving factors in association with urban marginal wetlands, with a special reference to eastern Chongming Island, Shanghai. On such a basis, the future adaptation strategy of the megacity is evaluated. The analytical results show that this island has witnessed three periods of time for wetland utilization: traditional land use for salt production, fishery and agriculture before 1950, industrialization with rapid reclamation during 1950–2001, and the land use pattern orientated toward wetland ecosystem protection after 2002. The driving forces include sediment budget on the coast, wetland morphodynamic processes, sea level rise, population growth, and resource management policy changes. Transformation occurred between the wetland utilization stages in response to the changes of these forces. Furthermore, facing future climate change, there are different options of adaptation, e.g., retreatment and adherence. It may not be suitable for coastal cities with a large population to take the first option. It will be suitable for coastal communities to adhere to the location, if solutions to the problems of flooding risk, coastal erosion, and the maintenance of coastal facilities can be found. For eastern Chongming wetlands, as a key experimental area for ecosystem-oriented development in Shanghai, the transformation from the reclamation-oriented utilization toward the protection of wetland ecosystems represents the first step toward the latter option. We suggest that the next steps would be to maintain the ecological niche of the wetlands, to create new approaches to coastal engineering with contributions from the ecosystem, and to provide better ecosystem services.

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Flood Risks in Sinking Delta Cities: Time for a Reevaluation?

Cited by 47 publications

References 68 publications

Combined Modeling of US Fluvial, Pluvial, and Coastal Flood Hazard Under Current and Future Climates

Combined Modeling of US Fluvial, Pluvial, and Coastal Flood Hazard Under Current and Future Climates

Levee breach-induced compound flood modeling in Qianbujing Creek, Shanghai during Typhoon "Fitow"

Wetland Utilization and Adaptation Practice of a Coastal Megacity: A Case Study of Chongming Island, Shanghai, China

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Flood Risks in Sinking Delta Cities: Time for a Reevaluation?

Cited by 47 publications

References 68 publications

Combined Modeling of US Fluvial, Pluvial, and Coastal Flood Hazard Under Current and Future Climates

Combined Modeling of US Fluvial, Pluvial, and Coastal Flood Hazard Under Current and Future Climates

Levee breach-induced compound flood modeling in Qianbujing Creek, Shanghai during Typhoon &quot;Fitow&quot;

Wetland Utilization and Adaptation Practice of a Coastal Megacity: A Case Study of Chongming Island, Shanghai, China

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Levee breach-induced compound flood modeling in Qianbujing Creek, Shanghai during Typhoon "Fitow"