Flood risk influenced by the compound effect of storm surge and rainfall under climate change for low-lying coastal areas

Hsiao, Shih Chun; Chiang, Wen-Son; Jang, Jiun Huei; Wu, Han; Lu, Wei; Chen, Wei Bo; Wu, Yun

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144439

Cited by 75 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…No theories have been proposed to formulate these compounds. There are compound summer heat and precipitation extremes reported over central Europe (Beniston, 2009;Sedlmeier et al, 2018), Spain (Morán-Tejeda et al, 2013) and China Wu S. et al, 2021;Wang P. et al, 2021). Moreover, floods that follow heat waves have been identified across the central United States , and this compound is manifested by the fact that heat stress may set the stage for extreme precipitation and flooding due to increasing sensible heat flux and moisture convergence under extreme heat stress.…”

Section: Flooding/precipitation and Heat Wave/ Stressmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The risk of compound flooding resulting from storm surge and heavy rainfall has been increasing in major coastal cities of the United States (Wahl et al, 2015). The risk of compound storm surge and heavy rainfall is projected to increase in the future (Karim and Mimura, 2008;Bevacqua et al, 2019;Bates et al, 2020;Hsiao et al, 2021). However, there are still large uncertainties in quantifying changes in the risk of compound flooding due to the insufficient skill of climate models in simulating extreme precipitation caused by storms (Zhang et al, 2019a;Roberts et al, 2020;Vannière et al, 2020).…”

Section: Storm Surge and Heavy Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Compound Hydrometeorological Extremes: Drivers, Mechanisms and Methods

et al. 2021

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Compound extremes pose immense challenges and hazards to communities, and this is particularly true for compound hydrometeorological extremes associated with deadly floods, surges, droughts, and heat waves. To mitigate and better adapt to compound hydrometeorological extremes, we need to better understand the state of knowledge of such extremes. Here we review the current advances in understanding compound hydrometeorological extremes: compound heat wave and drought (hot-dry), compound heat stress and extreme precipitation (hot-wet), cold-wet, cold-dry and compound flooding. We focus on the drivers of these extremes and methods used to investigate and quantify their associated risk. Overall, hot-dry compound extremes are tied to subtropical highs, blocking highs, atmospheric stagnation events, and planetary wave patterns, which are modulated by atmosphere-land feedbacks. Compared with hot-dry compound extremes, hot-wet events are less examined in the literature with most works focusing on case studies. The cold-wet compound events are commonly associated with snowfall and cold frontal systems. Although cold-dry events have been found to decrease, their underlying mechanisms require further investigation. Compound flooding encompasses storm surge and high rainfall, storm surge and sea level rise, storm surge and riverine flooding, and coastal and riverine flooding. Overall, there is a growing risk of compound flooding in the future due to changes in sea level rise, storm intensity, storm precipitation, and land-use-land-cover change. To understand processes and interactions underlying compound extremes, numerical models have been used to complement statistical modeling of the dependence between the components of compound extremes. While global climate models can simulate certain types of compound extremes, high-resolution regional models coupled with land and hydrological models are required to simulate the variability of compound extremes and to project changes in the risk of such extremes. In terms of statistical modeling of compound extremes, previous studies have used empirical approach, event coincidence analysis, multivariate distribution, the indicator approach, quantile regression and the Markov Chain method to understand the dependence, greatly advancing the state of science of compound extremes. Overall, the selection of methods depends on the type of compound extremes of interests and relevant variables.

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Section: Flooding/precipitation and Heat Wave/ Stressmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Storm Surge and Heavy Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

Compound Hydrometeorological Extremes: Drivers, Mechanisms and Methods

et al. 2021

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“…To evaluate the severity of flood risk, the concept of risk matrix expressed by the composition of hazard and vulnerability levels is widely used (Mohanty et al, 2020;Hsiao et al, 2021). In this study, the four population-based indexes were separately divided into five levels in ascending order, whereas the income index was divided into five levels in descending order, according to the rules in Table 2.…”

Section: Flood Risk Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Improvement of Flood Risk Analysis Via Downscaling of Hazard and Vulnerability Maps

Jang

Vohnicky

Kuo

2021

Water Resour Manage

Self Cite

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Flood risk maps are important references for disaster prevention and emergency response. The accuracy of risk maps is greatly affected by the resolutions of hazard and vulnerability maps. To determine the impact of map resolutions on flood risk analysis, a total of 12 risk maps were generated for Shanhua District, Taiwan, via the integration of hazard and vulnerability maps under two resolutions and three return periods. The hazard, vulnerability, and risk maps were classified into five levels according to flood depth, socio-economic indicators, and their products, respectively. The results show that the downscaling of hazard maps greatly increases the hit rate by 28% and decreases the false alarm rate by 53% in the flood risk analyses of households. In contrast, the downscaling of vulnerability maps only slightly increases the hit rate without an obvious decrease in the false alarm rate. To improve flood risk analysis under time and budget limitations, numerical downscaling of hazard maps should be given higher priority because it reduces the structural errors in hydraulic simulations that cannot be compensated for by the statistical downscaling of vulnerability maps.

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“…Therefore, compound flood hazards are more destructive than the combination of single-driven flood hazards, and have a certain amplification effect (Fang et al, 2020;Xu et al, 2019). However, storm tide and rainstorm are the driving factors in a compound flood hazard (Hsiao et al, 2021;Fang et al, 2020;Bevacqua et al, 2019). In this study, we investigate the compound effect of flood hazards by studying the probability distribution of highest storm tides during TCs.…”

Section: Storm Tide Probability Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Accordingly, the likelihood of the co-occurrence of storm tide and rainstorm will increase drastically (Keellings and Hernández Ayala, 2019;Marsooli et al, 2019;Emanuel, 2017;Lin et al, 2012), which may cause more extreme compound flood hazards (Bevacqua et al, 2019;Rasmussen et al, 2017;Wahl et al, 2015;Milly et al, 2002). Due to global warming, sea level rise, land subsidence, and urban expansion, coastal cities are confronted with the critical threat of TC compound flooding (Yin et al, 2021(Yin et al, , 2020Wang and Tan, 2021;Hsiao et al, 2021;. Recent studies evaluated compound flood risk at the regional scale (Fang et al, 2020;Bevacqua et al, 2019;Hendry et al, 2019;Budiyono et al, 2016;Wahl et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing tropical cyclone compound flood risk using hydrodynamic modelling: a case study in Haikou City, China

Liu

Wang

2021

Preprint

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Abstract. The co-occurrence of storm tide and rainstorm during tropical cyclones (TCs) can lead to compound flooding in low-lying coastal regions. The assessment of TC compound flood risk can provide vital insight for research on coastal flooding prevention. This study investigates TC compound flooding by constructing a storm surge model and overland flooding model using Delft3D Flexible Mesh (DFM), illustrating the serious consequences from the perspective of storm tide. Based on the probability distribution of storm tide, this study regards TC1415 as the 100-year event, TC6311 as the 50-year event, TC8616 as the 25-year event, TC8007 as the 10-year event, and TC7109 as the 5-year event. The results indicate that the coastal area is a major floodplain, primarily due to storm tide, with the inundation severity positively correlated with the height of the storm tide. For 100-year TC event, the inundation area with a depth above 1.0 m increases by approximately 2.5 times when compared with 5-year TC event. The comparison of single-driven flood (storm tide flooding and rainstorm inundation) and compound flood hazards shows that simply accumulating every single-driven flood hazard to define the compound flood hazard may cause underestimation. For future research on compound flooding, copula function can be adopted to investigate the joint occurrence of storm tide and rainstorm to reveal the severity of extreme TC flood hazards.

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Flood risk influenced by the compound effect of storm surge and rainfall under climate change for low-lying coastal areas

Cited by 75 publications

References 47 publications

Compound Hydrometeorological Extremes: Drivers, Mechanisms and Methods

Compound Hydrometeorological Extremes: Drivers, Mechanisms and Methods

Improvement of Flood Risk Analysis Via Downscaling of Hazard and Vulnerability Maps

Assessing tropical cyclone compound flood risk using hydrodynamic modelling: a case study in Haikou City, China

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