Flood risk assessment in Kogi State Nigeria through the integration of hazard and vulnerability factors

Abstract

Annually, Kogi State in Nigeria experiences significant flooding events, leading to serious fatalities, the destruction of livelihoods, and damage to vital infrastructure. This study presents a multi-faceted approach and methodology to generate a state-wide flood risk map by analyzing both flood vulnerability and flood hazard factors. Seven flood hazard factors (drainage length, distance to river, elevation, slope, rainfall, distance from confluence/dam area, and geomorphology) and vulnerability factors (population density, female population, land cover, road length, distance from hospitals, literacy rate, and employment rate) were ranked and weighted based on their contributions to flooding within the state using the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP). From these, the Flood Hazard Index (FHI), Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI), and Flood Risk Index (FRI) were derived. Results showed that Kabba, Idah, Olamabor, Kotonkar, and the southern part of Ajaokuta LGAs exhibit high flood vulnerability due to dense populations, remoteness from roads and critical infrastructure, and considerable distances from healthcare facilities. Likewise, LGAs exhibiting a very high FHI occur along the geographic zones bounded by the confluence of the Niger and Benue rivers, specifically along the Lokoja area, and the Kotonkar, Kogi, Bassa, and Ibaji LGAs. Five flood risk classes—very low, low, moderate, high, and very high FRI classes—occupy 26.82, 31.12, 22.07, 15.26, and 4.71% of the area, respectively. Out of 295 villages, 65 villages are spread across the high flood risk zone. The safest LGAs include Ankpa, Omala, Dekina, Ijumu, Kabba, and Mopa-Muro LGAs.