Flood inundation modelling: A review of methods, recent advances and uncertainty analysis

Teng, Jin; Jakeman, Anthony J.; Vaze, Jai; Croke, Barry; Dutta, Dushmanta; Kim, S.

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.01.006

Cited by 933 publications

(718 citation statements)

References 91 publications

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“…Evaluation of flood inundation areas and subsequently flood hazard is estimated by deterministic and/or probabilistic hydraulic approaches [7][8][9][10][11]. This is based on three modelling components: (i) synthetic storm generator; (ii) hydrological simulation model; and (iii) hydraulic simulation model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Operational Method for Flood Directive Implementation in Ungauged Urban Areas

et al. 2018

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An operational framework for flood risk assessment in ungauged urban areas is developed within the implementation of the EU Floods Directive in Greece, and demonstrated for Volos metropolitan area, central Greece, which is frequently affected by intense storms causing fluvial flash floods. A scenario-based approach is applied, accounting for uncertainties of key modeling aspects. This comprises extreme rainfall analysis, resulting in spatially-distributed Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) relationships and their confidence intervals, and flood simulations, through the SCS-CN method and the unit hydrograph theory, producing design hydrographs at the sub-watershed scale, for several soil moisture conditions. The propagation of flood hydrographs and the mapping of inundated areas are employed by the HEC-RAS 2D model, with flexible mesh size, by representing the resistance caused by buildings through the local elevation rise method. For all hydrographs, upper and lower estimates on water depths, flow velocities and inundation areas are estimated, for varying roughness coefficient values. The methodology is validated against the flood event of the 9th October 2006, using observed flood inundation data. Our analyses indicate that although typical engineering practices for ungauged basins are subject to major uncertainties, the hydrological experience may counterbalance the missing information, thus ensuring quite realistic outcomes.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Operational Method for Flood Directive Implementation in Ungauged Urban Areas

et al. 2018

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“…Uncertainty analysis is receiving increasing attention by the flood modeling community and has become an indispensable part of model simulation for flood risk and loss assessment [50]. Sensitivity of variables and data input is also considered as a source of uncertainty and could influence model performance in flood studies [63,64].…”

Section: Uncertainty and Variable Sensitivity Of The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As in many flood inundation models, the evaluation and calculation of hydrological elements contribute to uncertainties [25,49,50]. The flood process in the model relies on the surface runoff model and associated variables.…”

Section: Uncertainty and Variable Sensitivity Of The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of Flood Losses with Household Responses: Agent-Based Simulation in an Urban Catchment Area

Yang

Scheffran²,

Süsser

et al. 2018

Environ Model Assess

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Densely populated coastal urban areas are often exposed to multiple hazards, in particular floods and storms. Flood defenses and other engineering measures contribute to the mitigation of flood hazards, but a holistic approach to flood risk management should consider other interventions from the human side, including warning information, adaptive behavior, people/property evacuation, and the multilateral relief in local communities. There are few simulation approaches to consider these factors, and these typically focus on collective human actions. This paper presents an agentbased model that simulates flood response preferences and actions taken within individual households to reduce flood losses. The model implements a human response framework in which agents assess different flood scenarios according to warning information and decide whether and how much they invest in response measures to reduce potential inundation damages. A case study has been carried out in the Ng Tung River basin, an urbanized watershed in northern Hong Kong. Adopting a digital elevation model (DEM) as the modeling environment and a building map of household locations in the case area, the model considers the characteristics of households and the flood response behavior of their occupants. We found that property value, warning information, and storm conditions all influence household losses, with downstream and high density areas being particularly vulnerable. Results further indicate (i) that a flood warning system, which provides timely, accurate, and broad coverage rainstorm warning, can reduce flood losses by 30-40%; and (ii) to reduce losses, it is more effective and cheaper to invest early in response measures than late actions. This dynamic agent-based modeling approach is an innovative attempt to quantify and model the role of human responses in flood loss assessments. The model is demonstrated being useful for analyzing household scale flood losses and responses and it has the potential to contribute to flood emergency planning resource allocation in pluvial flood incidents.Keywords Flood risk and damage . Flood loss assessment . Adaptation and response . Urban area . Agent-based modeling . Pearl River Delta .

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“…This comes from the fact that floods impact their surroundings -in negative or in positive ways. The most common way used nowadays to better understand and often predict flood behaviour is through modelling and, depending on the system at hand, a variety 25 of models can be used (Teng et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Citizen observations contributing to flood modelling: opportunities and challenges

Assumpção¹,

Popescu²,

Jonoski³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. Citizen contributions to science have been successfully implemented in many fields -and water resources is one of them. Through citizens, it is possible to collect data and obtain a more integrated decision-making process. Specifically, data scarcity has always been an issue in flood modelling, which has been addressed in the last decades by remote sensing and is already being discussed in a citizen science scenario. In this context, this article aims to review the literature on the 10 topic and analyse the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. The literature on monitoring, mapping and modelling, was evaluated according to the flood-related variable citizens contributed to. Pros and cons of the collection/analysis methods were summarised. Then, pertinent publications were mapped into the flood modelling cycle, considering how citizen data properties (spatial and temporal coverage, uncertainty and volume) are related to its integration into modelling. It was clear that the number of studies in the area is rising. There are positive experiences reported in collection and analysis methods, 15 for instance with velocity and land cover, and also when modelling is concerned, for example by using social media mining.However, matching the data properties necessary for each part of the modelling cycle with citizen generated data is still challenging. Nevertheless, the concept that citizen contributions can be used for simulation and forecasting is proved and further work lies in continuing developing and improving not only methods for collection and analysis but certainly for integration into models as well. Finally, in view of recent automated sensors and satellite technologies, it is through studies 20 as the ones analysed in this article that the value of citizen contributions is demonstrated.

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Flood inundation modelling: A review of methods, recent advances and uncertainty analysis

Cited by 933 publications

References 91 publications

An Operational Method for Flood Directive Implementation in Ungauged Urban Areas

An Operational Method for Flood Directive Implementation in Ungauged Urban Areas

Assessment of Flood Losses with Household Responses: Agent-Based Simulation in an Urban Catchment Area

Citizen observations contributing to flood modelling: opportunities and challenges

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