Flood inundation and risk mapping under climate change scenarios in the lower Bilate catchment, Ethiopia

Edamo, Muluneh Legesse; Hatiye, Samuel Dagalo; Minda, Thomas T.; Ukumo, Tigistu Yisihak

doi:10.1007/s11069-023-06101-y

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…Advances in Meteorology (i) Estimating and flling missing data: Inverse distance or weighting method is most commonly used for the estimation of missing precipitation [40][41][42]. Rainfall data of interpolation using inverse distance weighting (IDW) can obtain more accurate results [43][44][45][46]. Te rainfall at a station was estimated as a weighted average of the observed rainfall at the neighboring stations.…”

Section: Bias Correction Of Climaticmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Variability and Trends in Rainfall and Temperature in South Ethiopia: Implications for Climate Change Adaptations in Rural Communities

Dalle,

Gecho,

Bedeke

2023

Advances in Meteorology

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Climate change is an environmental challenge for rural communities that rely heavily on rainwater-based agriculture. The main goal of this study is to investigate spatiotemporal variability and trends in rainfall and temperature in southern Ethiopia. Extreme temperature and rainfall indices were computed using the ClimPACT2 software. The detection and quantification of trends in rainfall and temperature extremes were analyzed using a nonparametric modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test and Sen’s slope estimator. Results indicated that the mean annual rainfall has a declining trend at Boditi School and Mayokote stations with a statistically significant amount at magnitudes of 0.02 mm and 0.04 mm, respectively. The highest average monthly rainfall in the catchment was observed in the months of April, May, June, July, and August up to maximum rainfall of 117.50 mm, 177.43 mm, and 228.84 mm in Bilate Tena, Boditi, and Mayakote stations, respectively. On a seasonal scale, rainfall in Bilate Tena station was highly variable in all months, ranging from 49.54% to 126.92%, and three seasons except spring which showed moderate variation at 40.65%. In addition, the three locations over the catchment exhibited varied drought signs such as severe (1.28 < SRA < 1.65) and extreme drought (SRA > 1.65). The temperature indices, on the other hand, exhibited a warming trend over the catchment which was observed through an increased annual number of warm days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p) ranges from 0.274 to 6.03 and 0.274 to 3.16, respectively. The annual maximum value of the daily maximum temperature (TXx) ranges from 30.10 to 33.76°C in the three agroecological zones and showed low, medium, and high values in Dega, Woyna Dega, and Kola agroecologies, while the annual maximum value of the daily minimum temperature (TNx) ranged between 17 and 17.44°C at Dega and Kola, respectively. Therefore, based on trends in rainfall variability and persistent temperature rise, appropriate adaptation strategies should be adopted.

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Section: Bias Correction Of Climaticmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Variability and Trends in Rainfall and Temperature in South Ethiopia: Implications for Climate Change Adaptations in Rural Communities

Dalle,

Gecho,

Bedeke

2023

Advances in Meteorology

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“…In this approach, global climate models are used to generate projections of climate variables such as precipitation and temperature under different emission scenarios [11]. These variables are then fed into hydrologic models to project and examine future flood peaks on global, regional, and local (i.e., small catchment) scales [12][13][14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Changes in Hydro-Climatic Extremes across Vietnam: Evidence from a Semi-Distributed Hydrological Model Forced by Downscaled CMIP6 Climate Data

Do,

Le,

et al. 2024

Water

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Flood hazards have led to substantial fatalities and economic loss in the last five decades, making it essential to understand flood dynamics in a warming climate. This study reports the first comprehensive assessment of projected flood hazards across Vietnam. We used downscaled climate data from the CMIP6 initiative, involving a total of 20 climate models, and streamflow projection simulated using a semi-distributed hydrological model. The assessment covers seven near-natural catchments, each representing a climate zone of the country. To evaluate climate change impacts on floods, the study simultaneously analyzes changes in three indices: (i) the annual hottest day temperature, to represent temperature extremes; (ii) the maximum daily rainfall amount, to represent rainfall extremes; and (iii) the discharge value exceeding 5% in a year, to assess streamflow extremes. Changes in the selected indices (relative to the reference period from 1985 to 2014) are assessed under four emission scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5) and two future time slices (2036–2065 and 2070–2099). Although the robustness (as indicated by multi-model agreement) and significance (identified through the statistical test) of the changes vary substantially, depending on the selected indices and assessed time slices, an overall increase is consistently identified across all of the assessed hydro-climatic extremes (up to 4.8 °C for temperature extremes, 43 mm for rainfall extremes, and 31% for streamflow extremes). The findings suggest a potential increase in flood risk across Vietnam in a warming climate, highlighting the urgent need for improved flood preparedness and investment to reduce economic loss and mortality in an uncertain future.

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The Nature-Based Solutions and climate change scenarios toward flood risk management in the greater Athens area—Greece

Theochari,

Baltas

2024

Nat Hazards

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This research paper focuses on implementing two Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) in the Sarantapotamos river basin upstream of Magoula settlement, evaluating their effectiveness through flood hydrograph calculations before and after NBS, and under future climate scenarios, encompassing lower, mean, and upper conditions representing ± 95%. The study area covers an area of 226 km2 in Attica, Greece, susceptible to extreme flood events. The research contributes to NBS knowledge, emphasizing flood resilience and protecting settlements downstream. Land cover change and retention ponds, applied individually and combined, serve as NBS approaches. Flood hydrographs are calculated using the time–area (TA) diagram method in a geographic information system (GIS) with the Hydrological Engineering Center’s Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS). Results demonstrate NBS effectiveness in current climate conditions, reducing peak discharge by 9.3% and 28% for land cover change and retention ponds, respectively. The combined NBS achieves a 40.5% peak discharge reduction and a significant 15.7% total flood volume decrease. Under climate change scenarios, impacts on design precipitation and flood hydrographs vary. The upper climate change scenario exhibits a 3348% increase in peak discharge and a 600% rise in total flood volume, while the lower scenario sees a 44.6% reduction in total flood volume. In the mean climate change scenario, land cover change and retention ponds reduce peak discharge by 9.73% and 23.11% and total flood volume by 9.25% and 2.17%, respectively. In conclusion, retention ponds show substantial peak discharge reduction, while land cover changes extend the time to peak, emphasizing their potential in flood risk management.

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Flood inundation and risk mapping under climate change scenarios in the lower Bilate catchment, Ethiopia

Cited by 6 publications

References 56 publications

Spatiotemporal Variability and Trends in Rainfall and Temperature in South Ethiopia: Implications for Climate Change Adaptations in Rural Communities

Spatiotemporal Variability and Trends in Rainfall and Temperature in South Ethiopia: Implications for Climate Change Adaptations in Rural Communities

Future Changes in Hydro-Climatic Extremes across Vietnam: Evidence from a Semi-Distributed Hydrological Model Forced by Downscaled CMIP6 Climate Data

The Nature-Based Solutions and climate change scenarios toward flood risk management in the greater Athens area—Greece

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