Flood frequency under the influence of trends in the Pearl River basin, China: changing patterns, causes and implications

Qiang, Zhang; Gu, Xihui; Singh, Vijay P.; Xiao, Mingzhong; Xu, Chong‐Yu

doi:10.1002/hyp.10278

Cited by 21 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Therefore, the TC-induced rainstorms can easily The flood event was defined as the annual maximum daily discharge which is consistent with previous studies (e.g. Zhang et al, 2015aZhang et al, , 2015bVillarini et al, 2011a). The annual maximum daily discharge with unit of m 3 /s was used as the flood peak series.…”

Section: Study Region and Datasupporting

confidence: 72%

Impact of tropical cyclones on flood risk in southeastern China: Spatial patterns, causes and implications

Zhang

Shi

et al. 2017

Global and Planetary Change

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Using flood peaks data from 62 hydrological stations covering a period of 1951-2014 and tropical cyclone (TC) tracks, floods due to TCs were differentiated and relations between occurrences of floods and TCs were investigated. Then, the impact of TCs on the flood magnitude and frequency was evaluated. Results indicated that there was more than one external influencing factor for flood occurrences, i.e. convective precipitation and TC-related heavy precipitation. In general, the landed TC events have a crucial influence on the occurrence of floods in eastern and western parts of Guangdong province. The mountainous topography limits the northward propagation of TC events and hence limits their impact on the 3 occurrence of floods in the northern part. More than 60% of the largest 10 hazardous floods in the northern and eastern parts were attributed to TCs and hence they significantly modified the probability distributions of flood peaks, increasing the location and scale parameters of the generalized extreme value (GEV) probability distribution model. Therefore, development of measures for mitigation of coastal flooding would need to consider the occurrences of TCs.

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Section: Study Region and Datasupporting

confidence: 72%

Impact of tropical cyclones on flood risk in southeastern China: Spatial patterns, causes and implications

Zhang

Shi

et al. 2017

Global and Planetary Change

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“…Clarke (2007) indicated that the next few decades should witness a substantial increase in our understanding of the processes causing climate change, not only for the purpose of forecasting the development of such changes, but also for predicting the frequency of an event of a certain magnitude. Thus, a number of investigators have attempted to incorporate nonstationarity in flood frequency analysis (Silva et al, 2012;Zhang et al, 2014bZhang et al, , 2015b. Reports on occurrence rates of floods in arid regions with the consideration of nonstationarity are lacking.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonstationarity in the occurrence rate of floods in the Tarim River basin, China, and related impacts of climate indices

Zhang

Singh

et al. 2016

Global and Planetary Change

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Amplification of floods in the Xinjiang, China, has been observed, but reports on their changing properties and underlying mechanisms are not available. In this study, occurrence rates of floods in the Tarim River basin, the largest inland arid river basin in China, were analyzed using the Kernel density estimation technique and bootstrap resampling method. Also analyzed were the occurrence rates of precipitation extremes using the POT (Peak over Threshold)-based sampling method. Both stationary and non-stationary models were developed using GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape) to model flood frequency with time, climate index, precipitation and temperature as major predictors. Results indicated: (1) two periods with increasing occurrence of floods, i.e., the late 1960s and the late 1990s with 3 considerable fluctuations around 2-3 flood events during time intervals between the late 1960s and the late 1990s; (2) changes in the occurrence rates of floods were subject to nonstationarity. A persistent increase of flood frequency and magnitude was observed during the 1990s and reached a peak value; (3) AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and AO (Atlantic Oscillation) in winter were the key influencing climate indices impacting the occurrence rates of floods. However, NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and SOI (South Oscillation Index) are two principle factors that influence the occurrence rates of regional floods. The AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) values indicated that compared to the influence of climate indices, occurrence rates of floods seemed to be more sensitive to temperature and precipitation changes. Results of this study are important for flood management and development of mitigation measures.

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“…Zheng et al, [7] indicated that annual and seasonal rainfall show no significant changes in the Pearl River Basin. Zhang et al, [75] indicated that uneven distribution of precipitation occurs in the flood and drought stages of the basin. Wu et al, [76] indicated that extreme precipitation has a significant increase in the Tarim River Basin.…”

Section: Variation Analysis Of Conventional Precipitation and Extremementioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Variations of Extreme Precipitation and Study on Chaotic Characteristics in the Xijiang River Basin, China

Ding

Liao

Wang

et al. 2019

Water

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Climate change leads to the increase of frequency and intensity for extreme precipitation events, potentially threatening the development of our society. It is of great significance to study the spatiotemporal variation of precipitation for understanding cycle process of water and its response to global warming. This paper selects the Xijiang River basin, which locates on a low latitude and coastland, as the research area. The spatiotemporal distribution and homogeneity of precipitation are analyzed, and the spatial trend is studied using 12 extreme precipitation indices. Finally, chaotic characteristics are evaluated for daily precipitation. The results showed that the precipitation in the basin tended to be unevenly distributed. On wet days, precipitation in the middle and the west was more and more uniform. The proportion of tiny rain was the largest, between 33.5% and 41.3%. The proportion of violent rain was the smallest, between 0.1% and 4.7%. Duan had the highest frequency for violent rain, and the probability of disasters caused by extreme precipitation near the station was the highest. The simple daily intensity index (SDII) showed a significant increase in the middle and the northeast. PRCPTOT (annual total wet-day precipitation) showed a decreasing trend in the northwest. The average rates of variation for R95PTOT (precipitation on very wet days) and R99PTOT (precipitation on extremely wet days) were −0.01 mm/year and 0.06 mm/year, respectively. There might be a risk of drought on the west of the basin in the future. Precipitation in other locations was still relatively abundant. Daily precipitation showed high dimension and high chaotic characteristics. The MED (minimum embedding dimension) was between 11 and 30, and the MLE (largest Lyapunov exponent) was between 0.037 and 0.144.

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Flood frequency under the influence of trends in the Pearl River basin, China: changing patterns, causes and implications

Cited by 21 publications

References 38 publications

Impact of tropical cyclones on flood risk in southeastern China: Spatial patterns, causes and implications

Impact of tropical cyclones on flood risk in southeastern China: Spatial patterns, causes and implications

Nonstationarity in the occurrence rate of floods in the Tarim River basin, China, and related impacts of climate indices

Spatiotemporal Variations of Extreme Precipitation and Study on Chaotic Characteristics in the Xijiang River Basin, China

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