Flood Frequency Analysis of Devils Lake under Current and Projected Future Climates Utilizing HEC Hydrologic Models, NASA Satellite Observations, and Downscaled GCM Simulations

Lim, Yeo Howe; Zhang, X.; Kirilenko, Andrei; Teng, William; Munna, H. S.

doi:10.1061/9780784412312.187

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

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“…An accurate prediction helps more efficiently to optimize electric generation, future expansions and extends to operate reservoirs and groundwater resources (Song et al , 2016; Efendi et al , 2019). Reservoirs play an important role in harmonizing the inconsistency between social development and water resources scarcity (Lim et al , 2012) whereas its operating rules are used to provide guidelines for reservoir releases to maintain the interests of a reservoir consistent with certain inflow and existing storage levels. The changes in climate variables such as precipitation (Zhang et al , 2007; Min et al , 2011; Souvignet et al , 2013; Ahn and Merwade, 2014) and temperature influences drinking water supplies (McClelland, 2004; Rossi et al , 2009; Lauri et al , 2012; Zhou et al , 2012; Patterson et al , 2013; Hu et al , 2015; Wang et al , 2016; Ribbe et al , 2017), flood risks, irrigation and hydropower production at various levels (IPPC, 2014).…”

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confidence: 99%

Prophesying the stream flow and perpetrating the performance of Halele-Werabessa reservoirs of Ethiopia using HEC-HMS and HEC-ResSim

Bekele¹,

Ayana

Mohammed

et al. 2021

WJE

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Purpose To assess the impacts of climate change on stream flow and evaluation of reservoir performances, reliability, resilience and vulnerability (RRV) indices are contemplated. Precipitation, temperature (Tmax, Tmin), relative humidity and solar radiation are the hydrological and meteorological data which have been used extensively. Climate data like RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were evaluated for the base period 1976–2005 and future climate scenario for 2021–2050 and 2051–2080 as per the convenience. Design/methodology/approach The hydrologic engineering center hydrologic modeling system (HEC-HMS) model was used to simulate the current and future inflow volume into the reservoir. The model performance resulted as 0.76 Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), 0.78 R2 and −3.17 D and during calibration the results obtained were 0.8 NSE, 0.82 R2 and 2.1 D. The projected climate scenario illustrates an increasing trend for both maximum and minimum temperature though a decreasing trend was documented for precipitation. The average time base reliability of the reservoirs was less than 50% without reservoir condition and greater than 50% for other conditions but volumetric reliability and resilience varies between 50% and 100% for all conditions. The vulnerability result of reservoirs may face shortage of flow ranging from 5.7% to 33.8%. Findings Evaluating reservoir simulation and hydropower generation for different climate scenarios by HEC-ResSim model, the energy generated for upper dam ranges from 349.4 MWhr to 331.2 MWhr and 4045.82 MWhr and 3946.74 MWhr for short and long-term future scenario, respectively. RCP for Tmax and Tmin goes on increasing whereas precipitation and inflow to reservoir decreases owing to increase in evapotranspiration. Under diverse climatic conditions power production goes on varying simultaneously. Originality/value This paper is original and all the references are properly cited.

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