Flood Forecasting using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Method and Geographic Information System

Abdurrahman, M. Asad; Irawan, Budhi; Latuconsina, Roswan

doi:10.1109/iccerec.2017.8226704

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…The authors have used a 72 periods dataset from January 2008 to December 2013, to determine the model and 23 periods dataset from January 2014 to November 2015 for testing the accuracy of the model. The authors claim that the best model used in this case is [12]. The authors find the results that the airport is visited by more visitors in December and then in June and July.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 84%

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An Unemployment Prediction Rate for Indian Youth Through Time Series Forecasting

Sharma

Soni

2021

Algorithms for Intelligent Systems

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Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 84%

“…This article [12] explains the use of Holt-Winters' exponential smoothing method for the forecasting of a flood. The authors have collected the previous or historical flood inundation data.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Unemployment Prediction Rate for Indian Youth Through Time Series Forecasting

Sharma

Soni

2021

Algorithms for Intelligent Systems

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“…Based on pertinent information from the past, forecasting techniques are a quantitative way to predict what will happen in the future (Abdurrahman et al, 2017). This approach is very helpful in conducting an analysis of the behavior or patterns of historical data in order to provide more systematic, practical thinking, workmanship, and solutions.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of the Single Exponential Smoothing Method For Flood Disaster Prediction

Sukardi,

Anisa,

Herha

2023

CNAHPC

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The country of Indonesia is seen as one that is particularly vulnerable to natural catastrophes as well as calamities brought on by human activity. A disaster that may be brought on by both natural and human sources is a flood. Disasters brought on by flooding are unpredictable occurrences that frequently cause losses in the form of property damage, the theft of assets, and lost productivity at work and in school. Through this prediction information system, the people can find out the level of risk of flooding through excessive rainfall. in order to better anticipate and prepare for all possibilities that occur before the flood, the method used is Single Exponential Smoothing. This method was chosen because of the simple way the system works to find predictive values ??through past data. With this system, researchers can input rainfall data taken from the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency, then the data is processed through the system and if rainfall gets high results. The risk of flooding will also be very high and a warning will be given to the public so that better prepared for the risk of flooding. The results obtained from this study are the results of an analysis of the exponential method single to obtain accurate rainfall prediction information with data MAD, MSE and MAPE.

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“…For example, Puah et al, (2016) have examined the rainfall patterns, and Muhamad and Din, (2015) have forecast water levels using the Holt-Winters method. In addition, Abdurrahman et al, (2017) have used the Holt-Winters method and the geographic information system for forecasting floods. This method has been used to identify flood occurrences using past water debit data in their study.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting flood inundation areas of Attanagalu Oya

et al. 2022

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Flood is the most common natural disaster in Sri Lanka. Therefore, it is important to identify future flood-prone areas to mitigate damages caused by a flood. The present study was carried out for a selected area of the Attanagalu Oya basin situated in the Gampaha district for flood forecasting. The two software packages Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) and Hydrologic Engineering Center -River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) were used for the simulations. Holt-Winters' time series forecasting method was used to forecast climate data (rainfall and evaporation) which are the needed inputs for HEC-HMS. In addition, ArcGIS software was used for geo-referencing and measuring the relevant areas of the flood areas. The model performances and flood area simulations were numerically analyzed using several statistical criteria proposed in the literature. Simulated and actual flood areas were overlapped with 72% of accuracy and forecasted flood areas and actual flood areas were overlapped with 68% of accuracy. Therefore, this study can show a reliable forecast of the flood in the selected area. In addition, results concluded that HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS are the ideal software for flood simulation, and the procedure can be adopted for forecasting future flood-prone areas.

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Flood Forecasting using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Method and Geographic Information System

Cited by 9 publications

References 0 publications

An Unemployment Prediction Rate for Indian Youth Through Time Series Forecasting

An Unemployment Prediction Rate for Indian Youth Through Time Series Forecasting

Application of the Single Exponential Smoothing Method For Flood Disaster Prediction

Forecasting flood inundation areas of Attanagalu Oya

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