Flood Forecasting and Early Warning for River Basins in Central Vietnam

Nam, Do Hoai; Udo, Keiko; Mano, Akira

doi:10.2208/jscejhe.67.i_7

Cited by 7 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…This is interpreted as model intrinsic errors either in the specification of the initial model state or in the model formulation which the land surface is averaged within very coarse grid cells; thus, small scale effects of topography may not be resolved in these NWP models. Statistical downscaling has exhibited as an efficient technology in precipitation estimate for flood prediction 5) . However, it usually requires historical data observed in the field to formulate empirical relationships used for future prediction while the majority of remote catchments is unobserved.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inflow Forecast Using Downscaled Rainfall From Global NWP For Real-Time Flood Control

2012

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Many reservoirs are operational with single objective like hydropower reservoirs. Its objective function is to maximize water availability for power generation. While objective functions related to vulnerability, for example flood control, are not prioritized or at very limited capability. In many cases, improper reservoir operation may produce extra flood threats downstream because of dam safety issues. This paper presents inflow forecast for real-time flood control based on combination of downscaled precipitation from the global NWP model using local scaling method and a distributed rainfall runoff model. Altitudinal dependence of rainfall is utilized to determine the basin average scaling factor. Results show that inflow prediction based on precipitation forecast using the local scaling factor exhibits significant improvement. It has demonstrated an added value in reservoir inflow prediction for flood control practices, especially in unobserved, remote catchments, that aims to reduce downstream flood.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inflow Forecast Using Downscaled Rainfall From Global NWP For Real-Time Flood Control

2012

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“…Theoretically, the super‐tank model developed for rainfall–run‐off analysis in a watershed is also based on the original tank model (Sugawara, ); however, the model focused on more physically based features (Kato and Mano, ; Kardhana et al ., ; Nam et al ., ). The super‐tank model, hence, has nearly calibration‐free parameters because they are internally calibrated using the geotopographical and land surface information of the watershed.…”

Section: Modelling Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The following paragraphs will present brief descriptions of the super-tank and HEC-RAS models. Theoretically, the super-tank model developed for rainfall-run-off analysis in a watershed is also based on the original tank model (Sugawara, 1967); however, the model focused on more physically based features (Kato and Mano, 2003;Kardhana et al, 2007;Nam et al, 2011).…”

Section: Coupled Hydrological-hydraulic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This finding means that other objective functions related to vulnerability, for instance, flood control, have not been sufficiently considered. In many cases, reservoir operation has resulted in increased flood threats downstream because of dam safety issues (Nam et al, 2011). In future work, this issue should be considered during further exploration of future flood risks at the river basin scale.…”

Section: Future Fluvial Flood Risksmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future fluvial flood risks in Central Vietnam assessed using global super‐high‐resolution climate model output

Nam

Udo

Mano

2014

J Flood Risk Management

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Fluvial flood risks are explored at the Vu Gia–Thu Bon River system in Central Vietnam based on a coupled hydrological–hydraulic model combined with design storm hyetographs constructed based on heavy rainfall downscaled from the output of a state‐of‐the‐art super‐high‐resolution (20‐km mesh) global climate model simulated under greenhouse gas emission scenario A1B. The results indicate that intensified rainfall due to future climate changes (2075–2099) will lead to higher flood risks in the fluvial plains, especially in the lower areas of the river system. The potential extent of inundation caused by a 25‐year return period flood in future climate patterns will increase by approximately 150% compared with those produced by the most severe flood in the present‐day climate (1979–2003). Moreover, the flood risks induced by a 10‐year return period flood tend to be slightly more severe than that of the 25‐year return period in the present‐day climate.

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“…The super-tank model used in this study for rainfall runoff analysis apparently tends to overcome this issue. The model is also based on the original tank, attributed with some physically based features (Kardhana et al 2007;Nam et al 2011b). The super-tank model, thus, has nearly calibration-free parameters, because the model parameters are internally calibrated using geo-topographical and landsurface information.…”

Section: Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on Runoff Regimes at a River Basin Scale in Central Vietnam

Nam¹,

Udo²,

Mano³

2012

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

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Global warming has resulted in significant variability of global climate especially with regard to variation in temperature and precipitation. As a result, it is expected that river flow regimes will be accordingly varied. This study presents a preliminary projection of medium-term and long-term runoff variation caused by climate change at a river basin scale. The large scale precipitation projection at the middle and the end of the 21 st century under the A1B scenario simulated by the CGCM model (MRI & JMA, 300 km resolution) is statistically downscaled to a basin scale and then used as input for the super-tank model for runoff analysis at the upper Thu Bon River basin in Central Vietnam. Results show that by the middle and the end of this century annual rainfall will increase slightly; together with a rising temperature, potential evapotranspiration is also projected to increase as well. The total annual runoff, as a result, is found to be not distinctly varied relative to the baseline period 1981 -2000; however, the runoff will decrease in the dry season and increase in the rainy season. The results also indicate the delay tendency of the high river flow period, shifting from Sep-Dec at present to Oct-Jan in the future. The present study demonstrates potential impacts of climate change on streamflow regimes in attempts to propose appropriate adaptation measures and responses at the river basin scales.

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Flood Forecasting and Early Warning for River Basins in Central Vietnam

Cited by 7 publications

References 11 publications

Inflow Forecast Using Downscaled Rainfall From Global NWP For Real-Time Flood Control

Inflow Forecast Using Downscaled Rainfall From Global NWP For Real-Time Flood Control

Future fluvial flood risks in Central Vietnam assessed using global super‐high‐resolution climate model output

Climate Change Impacts on Runoff Regimes at a River Basin Scale in Central Vietnam

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