Flood Early Warning Systems for Hydrological (Sub) Catchments

Werner, Micha; Schellekens, Jaap; Kwadijk, Jaap

doi:10.1002/0470848944.hsa022

Cited by 17 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…To best represent the hydrological conditions in the catchment on the forecast-issuing day, a hydrological forecasting system often relies on the updating of the hydrological model states, by combining simulations with real-time data (Demirel et al, 2013a;Liu et al, 2012;Werner et al, 2005;Wöhling et al, 2006). A number of sophisticated techniques have been developed for data assimilation and model-state updating (Houser et al, 2012;Liu et al, 2012).…”

Section: Updating Of Initial Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Accurate flood forecasting Penning-Rowsell et al, 2000;Werner et al, 2005) and lowstreamflow forecasting (Demirel et al, 2013a;Fundel et al, 2013) are important in mitigating the negative effects of extreme events, by enabling early warning. Accurate forecasting is becoming increasingly more important, because the frequency and magnitude of low-and high-streamflow events are projected to increase in many areas in the world as a result of climate change (IPCC, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Performance of ensemble streamflow forecasts under varied hydrometeorological conditions

Benninga

Booij

Romanowicz

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The paper presents a methodology that gives insight into the performance of ensemble streamflowforecasting systems. We have developed an ensemble forecasting system for the Biała Tarnowska, a mountainous river catchment in southern Poland, and analysed the performance for lead times ranging from 1 to 10 days for low, medium and high streamflow and different hydrometeorological conditions. Precipitation and temperature forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts served as inputs to a deterministic lumped hydrological (HBV) model. Due to a non-homogeneous bias in time, pre-and post-processing of the meteorological and streamflow forecasts are not effective. The best forecast skill, relative to alternative forecasts based on meteorological climatology, is shown for high streamflow and snow accumulation lowstreamflow events. Forecasts of medium-streamflow events and low-streamflow events under precipitation deficit conditions show less skill. To improve performance of the forecasting system for high-streamflow events, the meteorological forecasts are most important. Besides, it is recommended that the hydrological model be calibrated specifically on lowstreamflow conditions and high-streamflow conditions. Further, it is recommended that the dispersion (reliability) of the ensemble streamflow forecasts is enlarged by including the uncertainties in the hydrological model parameters and the initial conditions, and by enlarging the dispersion of the meteorological input forecasts.

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Section: Updating Of Initial Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance of ensemble streamflow forecasts under varied hydrometeorological conditions

Benninga

Booij

Romanowicz

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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show abstract

“…The concentrated nature of floods makes them predictable in an operational context such as flood forecasting, because forecasts may be tailored to specific, known flood-prone locations and a short lead time is sufficient to act (see e.g. Carsell et al, 2004;Verkade and Werner, 2011;Weerts et al, 2011;Werner et al, 2005). At the global scale, the local character and short timescale of floods makes prediction difficult, because global data and models are generally tailored to relatively coarse spatial (and to a smaller degree temporal) resolutions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A framework for global river flood risk assessments

Winsemius

Beek

Jongman

et al. 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

384

273

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Abstract. There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ∼ 1 km 2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IM-AGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km 2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from the EM-DAT database and World Bank sources. We discuss and show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input sets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish impact models.

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“…Las principales diferencias entre estos modelos son la complejidad de los procesos y el número de parámetros necesarios para su aplicación (Werner, et al, 2005 conocido anteriormente como Fondo de Prevención y Atención de Emergencias (FOPAE). La información correspondiente se puede consultar en el Sistema de Información para la Gestión del Riesgo y Atención de Emergencias (SIRE-http://www.sire.gov.co/), cuyo objetivo es facilitar la gestión del riesgo y la atención de emergencias en el Distrito Capital.…”

Section: Predicción De Las Inundacionesunclassified

Estado del arte de los sistemas de alerta temprana en Colombia

Domínguez-Calle

Lozano-Báez

2014

Rev. Acad. Colomb. Cienc. Ex. Fis. Nat.

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ResumenEl aumento de los desastres naturales en todo el mundo ha generado grandes pérdidas económicas, ambientales y de vidas humanas. Los sistemas de alerta temprana se han desarrollado como una herramienta para mitigar el impacto de estos eventos, en torno a los cuales existe mucha información que, infortunadamente, se encuentra dispersa. En este contexto, el presente trabajo tuvo como propósito hacer una revisión bibliográfica de las publicaciones sobre el tema, profundizando en dos de los principales desastres naturales: las inundaciones y las sequías. Se presenta, igualmente, lo concerniente a los sistemas de alerta temprana en Colombia, así como algunas recomendaciones para mejorar su uso.Palabras clave: sequia, inundación, riesgo, gestión del riesgo, predicción. State of the art of the early warning system in Colombia AbstractThe overall increase of natural disasters has generated significant economic, environmental and human life losses. As a tool for mitigating these impacts, early warning systems have been developed, about which there is a lot of information that, unfortunately, is scattered. In this context, this paper aimed at reviewing the literature on the topic, delving into two major disasters: floods and droughts. We also present early warning systems in Colombia and some recommendations on how to improve their use.

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Flood Early Warning Systems for Hydrological (Sub) Catchments

Cited by 17 publications

References 42 publications

Performance of ensemble streamflow forecasts under varied hydrometeorological conditions

Performance of ensemble streamflow forecasts under varied hydrometeorological conditions

A framework for global river flood risk assessments

Estado del arte de los sistemas de alerta temprana en Colombia

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