Flexibility dimensions to control the bullwhip effect in a supply chain

INVENTORY MANAGEMENT AND THE BULLWHIP EFFECT DURING THE 2007–2009 RECESSION: EVIDENCE FROM THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR*

“…Although these tactics will reduce the size of the BWE de facto, decision makers often have little or no control over the environmental uncertainties that surround them. Managers adopt operation‐based remedies, such as vendor‐managed inventory (Disney and Towill 2003), in order to increase operational capability and responsiveness (Pereira, Takahashi, Ahumada and Paredes 2009).…”

Bullwhip-Effect and Flexibility in Supply Chain Management

“…Results presented in this chapter open to new ideas about the way that different fading strategies impact the bullwhip-effect behavior. Even if an early study was proposed by Pereira et al (2009), the focus was rather mathematical and no framework was suggested as a specific analytical grid. In consequence, future research concerns the hypothesis that decision makers evidence limited rationality bias when facing an ordering method.…”

“…In Pereira et al (2009) we proposed an alternative to control the bullwhip-effect, using a learning variable representing the manager's belief on the forecasted demand change. This learning was modeled by a factor α, included in the ordering equation as O i t = P i−1 t + α△D i t , which conveys θ i t = α△D i t .…”

“…However, they did not explain how it is produced by forecasting methods. In a recent work Pereira et al (2009) have shown that for an AR(1) demand stochastic process, flexibility on each stage of the supply chain strongly depends on the manager's belief about the downstream forecasting processes. Beliefs affect the decision rules in ordering methods, structurally defining the adaptation capability in the supply chain.…”

Previsão de demanda de três produtos fornecidos por um distribuidor de bebidas

“…Bittar et al (2005) abordaram técnicas de previsão de vendas de cerveja para tomada de decisão em um caso em que o modelo de regressão linear não foi capaz de explicar os dados, sendo usado o modelo Box-Jenkins. Pereira et al (2009) analisaram como o e-SCM (electronic Supply Chain Management -Gestão eletrônica da Cadeia de Suprimentos) poderia ajudar o segmento de bebidas a suplementar seu modelo tradicional de previsão de vendas, melhorando os níveis de serviço ao consumidor final. Salgado et al (2010) analisaram como a informação, em tempo real, podem ajudar o segmento de bebidas a ajustar seu modelo tradicional de previsão de vendas, identificando a necessidade de adequar a previsão a intervalos menores, com ajustes na logística, produção e estocagem.…”