Flash flood forecasting within the PREVIEW project: value of high-resolution hydrometeorological coupled forecast

Vincendon, Béatrice; Ducrocq, Véronique; Dierer, Silke; Kotroni, Vassiliki; Lay, Matthieu Le; Milelli, Massimo; Quesney, A.; Saulnier, Georges-Marie; Rabuffetti, D.; Bouilloud, Ludovic; Chancibault, Katia; Anquetin, Sandrine; Lagouvardos, Konstantinos; Steiner, P.

doi:10.1007/s00703-008-0315-6

Cited by 20 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…The global model QPF produces, due to its large space-time scales, the highest underestimation of flood peaks. A general underestimation trend is common to all QPF and QDF (Ferraris et al, 2002;Cluckie et al, 2006;Vincendon et al, 2008).…”

Section: November 2002: River Floods Case Studymentioning

confidence: 89%

Operational flood-forecasting in the Piemonte region – development and verification of a fully distributed physically-oriented hydrological model

Rabuffetti

Ravazzani

Barbero³

et al. 2009

Adv. Geosci.

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Abstract.A hydrological model for real time flood forecasting to Civil Protection services requires reliability and rapidity. At present, computational capabilities overcome the rapidity needs even when a fully distributed hydrological model is adopted for a large river catchment as the Upper Po river basin closed at Ponte Becca (nearly 40 000 km 2 ). This approach allows simulating the whole domain and obtaining the responses of large as well as of medium and little sized sub-catchments. The FEST-WB hydrological model (Mancini, 1990;Montaldo et al., 2007;Rabuffetti et al., 2008) is implemented. The calibration and verification activities are based on more than 100 flood events, occurred along the main tributaries of the Po river in the period 2000-2003. More than 300 meteorological stations are used to obtain the forcing fields, 10 cross sections with continuous and reliable discharge time series are used for calibration while verification is performed on about 40 monitored cross sections. Furthermore meteorological forecasting models are used to force the hydrological model with Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) for 36 h horizon in "operational setting" experiments. Particular care is devoted to understanding how QPF affects the accuracy of the Quantitative Discharge Forecasts (QDFs) and to assessing the QDF uncertainty impact on the warning system reliability. Results are presented either in terms of QDF and of warning issues highlighting the importance of an "operational based" verification approach.

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Section: November 2002: River Floods Case Studymentioning

confidence: 89%

Operational flood-forecasting in the Piemonte region – development and verification of a fully distributed physically-oriented hydrological model

Rabuffetti

Ravazzani

Barbero³

et al. 2009

Adv. Geosci.

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“…Lastly, significant advances in prevention and early warning could be made when outcomes of other PREVIEW services (e.g. flash flood forecasting, Vincendon et al, 2009) will be finally integrated in a single operational procedure involving related risks.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is done through algorithms that allow for correcting radar-measured precipitation fields by using rain gauge measurements. There is a great number of publications about the theme of radar-rain gauge adjustment, various algorithms have been designed and some operationally implemented (Tonelli et al, 2002;Cuccioli, 2004;Goudenhoofdt et al, 2009;Vincendon et al, 2009); in any cases the use of geostatistic has been introduced to make more sophisticated methodologies and to improve rainfall estimation (Krajewski, 1987;Velasco-Forero et al, 2008, 2009.…”

Section: Radar Rainfall Mapsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards a definition of a real-time forecasting network for rainfall induced shallow landslides

Segoni

Leoni

Benedetti

et al. 2009

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. PREVIEW is an European Commission FP6 Integrated Project with the aim of developing, at an European level, innovative geo-information services for atmospheric, geophysical and man-made risks. Within this framework, the Landslides Platform Service 2 (forecasting of shallow rapid slope movements) has developed an integrated procedure for the forecasting and warning of distributed shallow landsliding to be used for civil protection purposes.The Service consists of an automated end-to-end forecasting chain which uses data from a probabilistic downscaled short-term rainfall forecast, soil saturation estimates and meteorological radar outputs. The above data are entered into a hydro-geological model that makes use of an infinite slope approach to calculate the distributed Factor of Safety over the entire basin. All outputs, and much of the input data, are shown on a WebGIS system so that end-users can interactively access and download data. A distinctive feature of the service is the use of an innovative soil depth model for predicting the distributed thickness of the regolith cover within the basin, which is one of the most important parameters controlling shallow landslide triggering.The service was developed in a pilot test site in NE Italy, the Armea basin. Validation makes use of two rainfall events: one that occurred in 2000 and a smaller, more recent event (2006) that caused fewer landslides. Rainfall data have been used to compute a distributed factor-of-safety map that has been overlaid onto the landslide inventory. Instead of a traditional validation approach based on the number count of correctly identified landslides, we carried out an alternative procedure based on the landslides area that gave outcomes which, for this preliminary stage of the research, can be considered promising.

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“…Deidda, 2000;Regimbeau et al, 2007), are needed. Several past studies have assessed the value of convection-permitting meteorological forecasts to drive hydrological models dedicated to Mediterranean flash-floods (Anquetin et al, 2005;Chancibault et al, 2006;Vincendon et al, 2009). These studies found that the precipitation underestimation was significantly less marked for the convection-permitting QPF, but there were still uncertainties on rainfall location, which could be detrimental to good discharge forecasting.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Perturbation of convection-permitting NWP forecasts for flash-flood ensemble forecasting

Vincendon

Ducrocq

Nuissier

et al. 2011

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Mediterranean intense weather events often lead to devastating flash-floods. Extending the forecasting lead times further than the watershed response times, implies the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) to drive hydrological models. However, the nature of the precipitating events and the temporal and spatial scales of the watershed response make them difficult to forecast, even using a high-resolution convection-permitting NWP deterministic forecasting. This study proposes a new method to sample the uncertainties of high-resolution NWP precipitation forecasts in order to quantify the predictability of the streamflow forecasts. We have developed a perturbation method based on convection-permitting NWP-model error statistics. It produces short-term precipitation ensemble forecasts from single-value meteorological forecasts. These rainfall ensemble forecasts are then fed into a hydrological model dedicated to flash-flood forecasting to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. The verification on two flash-flood events shows that this forecasting ensemble performs better than the deterministic forecast. The performance of the precipitation perturbation method has also been found to be broadly as good as that obtained using a state-of-the-art research convectionpermitting NWP ensemble, while requiring less computing time.

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Flash flood forecasting within the PREVIEW project: value of high-resolution hydrometeorological coupled forecast

Cited by 20 publications

References 16 publications

Operational flood-forecasting in the Piemonte region – development and verification of a fully distributed physically-oriented hydrological model

Operational flood-forecasting in the Piemonte region – development and verification of a fully distributed physically-oriented hydrological model

Towards a definition of a real-time forecasting network for rainfall induced shallow landslides

Perturbation of convection-permitting NWP forecasts for flash-flood ensemble forecasting

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