Flash drought: A state of the science review

Christian, Jordan I.; Hobbins, Mike; Hoell, Andrew; Otkin, Jason A.; Ford, Trent W.; Cravens, Amanda E.; Powlen, Kathryn A.; Wang, Hailan; Mishra, Vimal

doi:10.1002/wat2.1714

Cited by 12 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 215 publications

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“…FDs are becoming increasingly frequent under climate change, and require different adaptation schemes owing to their rapid emergence (Yuan et al 2023;Christian, Hobbins, et al 2024). In this regard, we investigated the occurrence of FDs in Germany, as well as societal awareness (Kam, Stowers, and S. Kim 2019) and perceived impacts (Sodoge et al 2023).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although recent studied have attempted to monitor and forecast FDs (Mukherjee and Mishra 2022;Ho, Buras, and Tuo 2023;Christian, Hobbins, et al 2024), these efforts often fail to identify impactful events and validate their metrics and indices with observed societal consequences, leading to misidentification and misinformation (Alencar and Paton 2022). This study provides a novel technique to bridge this gap and allows the production of more reliable methods for FD identification and monitoring based on validated events.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An initial debate focused on whether FDs were short-lived droughts (Mo and Lettenmaier 2016), or intense evolving droughts (Ford and Labosier 2017). The current consensus supports the latter (Christian, Hobbins, et al 2024). A leading understanding describes FDs as emerging rapidly by transitioning from average to high soil moisture to dry conditions (Yuan et al 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Flash droughts and their impacts -using newspaper articles to assess the perceived consequences of rapidly emerging droughts

Alencar,

Sodoge,

Paton

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Flash droughts (FDs) have attracted increasing attention in the past decade. They are characterized by a rapid depletion of soil moisture resulting from interactions between the soil and atmospheric conditions. To date, there is a lack of consistent FD definitions and an understanding of their socioeconomic impacts. Here, we explore the relationship between biophysical FD conditions and the perceived impacts of FDs in Germany between 2000 and 2022. We measured perceived impacts by analyzing consequences reported in newspaper articles (2000-2022) and online search behavior using Google trends data (2004-2022). To characterize the physical process, we considered root zone soil moisture data. Our results show that FDs are becoming increasingly frequent in Germany, occurring once every two years on average. Despite the lack of knowledge from the general public regarding the phenomenon of FDs, the peaks of interest in drought impacts correspond to the physical occurrence of FDs across the country. We identified an average time gap of four weeks between FD onset and the reporting of perceived impacts. This gap is longer than the average duration of FDs’ onset. Consequently, our findings highlight that consistent monitoring of FD conditions and drivers is necessary to guarantee effective preparedness. As impact perception is too slow to allow the adoption of mitigation measures, FDs require new schemes for response measures compared with slowly emerging (conventional) drought events. The novel method also allows the consistent and impact-based validation of flash drought identification methods.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Flash droughts and their impacts -using newspaper articles to assess the perceived consequences of rapidly emerging droughts

Alencar,

Sodoge,

Paton

et al. 2024

Preprint

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“…Furthermore, vegetation's response to drought tends to be delayed; the longer the overall drought persists, the more significant its influence on vegetation becomes [53]. Consequently, solely focusing on the rapid development (or burst) phase of a flash drought limits our understanding of its ecological impact [54,55]. It can be anticipated that a subsequent continuous drought following a flash drought could have profound effects on vegetation [56].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Variation in Water Deficit- and Heatwave-Driven Flash Droughts in Songnen Plain and Its Ecological Impact

Sun,

Wu,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Remote Sensing

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The phenomenon of flash droughts, marked by their fast onset, limited predictability, and formidable capacity for devastation, has elicited escalating concern. Despite this growing interest, a comprehensive investigation of the spatiotemporal dynamics of flash drought events within zones of ecological sensitivity, alongside their consequential ecological ramifications, remains elusive. The Songnen Plain, distinguished as both an important granary for commodity crops and an ecological keystone within China, emerges as an indispensable locus for the inquiry into the dynamics of flash droughts and their repercussions on terrestrial biomes. Through the application of daily soil moisture raster datasets encompassing the years 2002 to 2022, this investigation delves into the spatiotemporal progression of two distinct categories of flash droughts—those instigated by heatwaves and those precipitated by water deficits—within the Songnen Plain. Moreover, the ecosystem’s response, with a particular focus on gross primary productivity (GPP), to these climatic variables was investigated. Flash drought phenomena have been observed to manifest with a relative frequency of approximately one event every three years within the Songnen Plain, predominantly lasting for periods of 28–30 days. The incidence of both heatwave-induced and water deficit-induced flash droughts was found to be comparable, with a pronounced prevalence during the summer and autumn. Nevertheless, droughts caused by water scarcity demonstrated a more extensive distribution and a heightened frequency of occurrence, whereas those rooted in heatwaves were less frequent but exhibited a propensity for localization in specific sectors. The sensitivity of GPP to these meteorological anomalies was pronounced, with an average response rate surpassing 70%. This spatial distribution of the response rate revealed elevated values in the northwestern segment of the Songnen Plain and diminished values towards the southeastern sector. Intriguingly, GPP’s reaction pace to the onset of heatwave-driven flash droughts was observed to be more rapid in comparison to that during periods of water scarcity. Additionally, the spatial distribution of water use efficiency during both the development and recovery periods of flash droughts largely deviated from that of base water use efficiency. The insights from this study hold profound implications for the advancement of regional drought surveillance and adaptive management.

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“…Traditionally, drought is often seen as a slowly evolving natural phenomenon caused by a lack of precipitation over some period [1]. Recently, flash drought, characterized by a sudden onset and rapid intensification with destructive impact, has drawn significant attention [2][3][4][5][6]. In addition to precipitation deficits, flash droughts are often accompanied by abnormally high air temperature, low humidity, strong solar radiation, and sometimes strong winds that intensify the rapid depletion of soil moisture [7][8][9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the Response of Vegetation to Flash Droughts by Using Cross-Spectral Analysis and an Evapotranspiration-Based Drought Index

Li,

Jia,

et al. 2024

Remote Sensing

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Flash droughts tend to cause severe damage to agriculture due to their characteristics of sudden onset and rapid intensification. Early detection of the response of vegetation to flash droughts is of utmost importance in mitigating the effects of flash droughts, as it can provide a scientific basis for establishing an early warning system. The commonly used method of determining the response time of vegetation to flash drought, based on the response time index or the correlation between the precipitation anomaly and vegetation growth anomaly, leads to the late detection of irreversible drought effects on vegetation, which may not be sufficient for use in analyzing the response of vegetation to flash drought for early earning. The evapotranspiration-based (ET-based) drought indices are an effective indicator for identifying and monitoring flash drought. This study proposes a novel approach that applies cross-spectral analysis to an ET-based drought index, i.e., Evaporative Stress Anomaly Index (ESAI), as the forcing and a vegetation-based drought index, i.e., Normalized Vegetation Anomaly Index (NVAI), as the response, both from medium-resolution remote sensing data, to estimate the time lag of the response of vegetation vitality status to flash drought. An experiment on the novel method was carried out in North China during March–September for the period of 2001–2020 using remote sensing products at 1 km spatial resolution. The results show that the average time lag of the response of vegetation to water availability during flash droughts estimated by the cross-spectral analysis over North China in 2001–2020 was 5.9 days, which is shorter than the results measured by the widely used response time index (26.5 days). The main difference between the phase lag from the cross-spectral analysis method and the response time from the response time index method lies in the fundamental processes behind the definitions of the vegetation response in the two methods, i.e., a subtle and dynamic fluctuation signature in the response signal (vegetation-based drought index) that correlates with the fluctuation in the forcing signal (ET-based drought index) versus an irreversible impact indicated by a negative NDVI anomaly. The time lag of the response of vegetation to flash droughts varied with vegetation types and irrigation conditions. The average time lag for rainfed cropland, irrigated cropland, grassland, and forest in North China was 5.4, 5.8, 6.1, and 6.9 days, respectively. Forests have a longer response time to flash droughts than grasses and crops due to their deeper root systems, and irrigation can mitigate the impacts of flash droughts. Our method, based on cross-spectral analysis and the ET-based drought index, is innovative and can provide an earlier warning of impending drought impacts, rather than waiting for the irreversible impacts to occur. The information detected at an earlier stage of flash droughts can help decision makers in developing more effective and timely strategies to mitigate the impact of flash droughts on ecosystems.

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Flash drought: A state of the science review

Cited by 12 publications

References 215 publications

Flash droughts and their impacts -using newspaper articles to assess the perceived consequences of rapidly emerging droughts

Flash droughts and their impacts -using newspaper articles to assess the perceived consequences of rapidly emerging droughts

Spatiotemporal Variation in Water Deficit- and Heatwave-Driven Flash Droughts in Songnen Plain and Its Ecological Impact

Investigating the Response of Vegetation to Flash Droughts by Using Cross-Spectral Analysis and an Evapotranspiration-Based Drought Index

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