Fixing the Facts

Rovner, Joshua

doi:10.7591/9780801463136

Cited by 3 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“…The tendency of intelligence officers to qualify their intelligence and render it more ambiguous leads policymakers to reward and encourage those who produce more concise-and often more hasty-intelligence products. 3 "Analysts who simplify and advocate get more attention from time-pressed policymakers than analysts who complicate or equivocate," writes Richard Betts. 4 Policymakers may ignore ambiguous evidence or force analysts to continually re-evaluate and re-focus their analyses.…”

Section: Ambiguous Evidence and Indirect Manipulation Of Intelligencementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although examples of this arm-twisting are rare, it appears to be an effective solution when a leader's reputation is in danger. 13 "Politicization is more likely when policymakers have committed themselves to highly controversial issues," writes Rovner. "Public commitments make policymakers vulnerable to political costs if their plans appear misguided or doomed to fail, giving them strong incentives to pressure intelligence to deliver supporting estimates."…”

Section: Leaders' Political Position and Direct Manipulation Of Intelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…"Individuals' expectations have a powerful effect on their ability to accurately perceive information," writes Rovner. 8 For this reason, policymakers have a hard time absorbing data that is inconsistent with their preconceptions. Rather than seeking out intelligence to shape policy, they seek intelligence to support their preformed political and ideological notions.…”

Section: Ambiguous Evidence and Indirect Manipulation Of Intelligencementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rather than seeking out intelligence to shape policy, they seek intelligence to support their preformed political and ideological notions. 9 Because bottom-up politicization exists simultaneous to "cherry-picking," policymakers inherently fear subversion by intelligence producers and focus on analyses that fall in line with their own policies. Not only do they disregard unpleasant information, but they may also scorn the analyst or organization that provided it.…”

Section: Ambiguous Evidence and Indirect Manipulation Of Intelligencementioning

confidence: 99%

“…"Public commitments make policymakers vulnerable to political costs if their plans appear misguided or doomed to fail, giving them strong incentives to pressure intelligence to deliver supporting estimates." 14 Direct politicization occurs when policymakers pressure intelligence agencies to deliver products that support their policies and, more subtly, appoint analysts who are likely to produce the preferred outcome, resulting in manipulation by appointment. Direct manipulation can emerge out of leaders' genuine belief that their policy is the best long-term solution for their constituents, regardless of contrary intelligence.…”

Section: Leaders' Political Position and Direct Manipulation Of Intelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Psychological Puzzle: Contributing Factors to the Top-Down Politicization of Intelligence

Moretti

2016

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Policy and intelligence are intimately intertwined. Policymakers need intelligence to make decisions, while the intelligence community derives significance from its ability to Provide Policy makers with reliable information. in this symbiotic relationshiP, it is healthy for intelligence consumers to at times check and direct the work of intelligence Producers. however, if undertaken maliciously, this checking mechanism manifests as toP-down Politicization. here, leaders use intelligence Post facto to legitimize their Policies instead of using it to guide them, reversing the rational decision-making Process. certain factors may comPel leaders to maniPulate intelligence to reflect their Policy Preferences. this essay demonstrates how three distinct Processes of toP-down Politicization can arise from ambiguous evidence, the Psychology of intelligence consumers, and the nature of the leaders' Political Positions and resPonsibilities. it then Proceeds to argue that Political leaders' Psychology is the most Potent source of toP-down Politicization.

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Section: Ambiguous Evidence and Indirect Manipulation Of Intelligencementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Leaders' Political Position and Direct Manipulation Of Intelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Ambiguous Evidence and Indirect Manipulation Of Intelligencementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Ambiguous Evidence and Indirect Manipulation Of Intelligencementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Leaders' Political Position and Direct Manipulation Of Intelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Psychological Puzzle: Contributing Factors to the Top-Down Politicization of Intelligence

Moretti

2016

Elements

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Orientism Management Strategy for Training Policy-Makers in Emergency Decision-Making

dall’Acqua

2019

Forecasting and Managing Risk in the Health and Safety Sectors

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Policy-making is asked to define criteria and decisional support to respond to emergencies and a complex mix of social, environmental, economic, and cultural problems. Politics, especially at the highest levels, requires preparing professionals able to manage the opportunities offered by new technologies in the context of security and management. Risk analysis is an increasingly urgent necessity and challenge. Research data needs to be packaged into effective policy tools that will help policy-makers make an evidence-informed policy. The objective of this chapter is to offer a framework of analysis (Orientism Management OM Framework) useful for training policy-makers to develop a multi-perspective informed policy. It intends orienting the variety of backgrounds, interests, knowledge, skills, and the whole personality of the trainees, individually or within a work team.

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Uncertainty-Sensitive Heterogeneous Information Fusion: Assessing Threat with Soft, Uncertain, and Conflicting Evidence

Davis

Perry²,

Hollywood³

et al. 2016

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This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html.The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest.RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1200Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2016 RAND CorporationR® is a registered trademark. Cover Image: Fotolia iii PrefaceThis study was sponsored by the Office of Naval Research (ONR). It was initiated by Ivy Estabrooke and continued under Lee Mastrioanni, thrust manager, and Joong Kim, program officer, in ONR's Expeditionary Maneuver Warfare and Combatting Terrorism Department (Code 30). Comments and questions are welcome and should be addressed to Paul K. Davis at pdavis@rand.org.The report documents a basic research project. It is technical in nature and intended for researchers or managers of technical research potentially interested in information fusion for such domains as counterterrorism, law enforcement, and intelligence. Some of the ideas and methods will be of interest to the larger community of researchers involved with information fusion.This research was sponsored by the Office of Naval Research and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community.For more information on the International Security and Defense Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp.html or contact the director (contact information is provided on web page). Summary ObjectivesMilitary and other government organizations put substantial effort into detecting and thwarting attacks such as those by suicide bombers or involving improvised explosive devices. Such attacks may be against military or government installations in the United States or abroad, civilian infrastructure, or any of many other targets. An element of thwarting such attacks is observing suspicious individuals over time with such diverse means as cameras, scanners, and other devices; travel records; behavioral observations; and intelligenc...

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Fixing the Facts

Cited by 3 publications

References 0 publications

The Psychological Puzzle: Contributing Factors to the Top-Down Politicization of Intelligence

The Psychological Puzzle: Contributing Factors to the Top-Down Politicization of Intelligence

Orientism Management Strategy for Training Policy-Makers in Emergency Decision-Making

Uncertainty-Sensitive Heterogeneous Information Fusion: Assessing Threat with Soft, Uncertain, and Conflicting Evidence

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