Five decades of catastrophe theory research: Geographical atlas, knowledge structure and historical roots

Mostafa, Mohamed M.

doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112078

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 99 publications

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“…Catastrophe theory has been rapidly developed based on this. Catastrophe theory, proposed by the French mathematician René Thom, combines topology, singularity theory, and structural stability theory to represent a theoretical model for analyzing sudden and discontinuous phenomena in the development of dynamic systems [27]. Catastrophe theory is widely applied in various fields of emergency research, safety, and performance evaluations, such as control of biological populations [28], evaluations of utilization of water resources [29,30], environmental risk assessments of engineering [31][32][33], evaluation of economic competitiveness [34], and research on material performance [35,36].…”

Section: Methodology 41 Catastrophe Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Evaluation Method for Mutation Degree of Passenger Flow in Urban Rail Transit

Chen,

Ma,

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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When urban rail transit is affected by interference, the fluctuation pattern of passenger flow undergoes mutation, which is not conducive to its operational safety and sustainable development. The more intense the mutation in the passenger flow, the greater the impact on the network and operations. Therefore, it is necessary to measure and evaluate the mutation degree of the urban rail transit passenger flow. In this study, we clarify the definition of the mutation degree of urban rail transit passenger flow and construct an evaluation index system for the mutation degree of passenger flow from two dimensions: horizontal mutation amplitude and vertical mutation amplitude. Based on the catastrophe theory, an evaluation model of the mutation degree was constructed. Using this evaluation method, abbreviated as CDCT, the level division of the mutation degree at different time intervals under different interference scenarios can be obtained, achieving a dynamic evaluation of the mutation degree of passenger flow. Finally, taking the passenger flow data of the Suzhou rail transit as an example, the mutational fluctuation of passenger flow affected by interference is analyzed, and the evaluation results of the mutation degree of passenger flow are obtained. The analysis results show that the CDCT evaluation method can better reflect the dynamic changes in the mutation degree throughout the process under the influence of the mutational passenger flow.

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Section: Methodology 41 Catastrophe Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Evaluation Method for Mutation Degree of Passenger Flow in Urban Rail Transit

Chen,

Ma,

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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“…Moreover, Buchnea and Elsahn (2022) advocate that theoretical progress in IB can be expedited through the diversification of contexts and sources, leading to the reconfiguration of theoretical frameworks or even the creation of novel ones. An innovative theoretical model based on catastrophe theory – the branch of complexity science that delves into the behavior of nonlinear dynamical systems subject to abrupt changes (Mostafa, 2022; Guastello, 2013) – offers a fresh perspective to incorporate the profound impact of black swan events on the realm of IB. The catastrophic outcomes resulting from black swan events – characterized by their rarity and extreme consequences (Aven, 2013; Taleb, 2007) – trigger organizational transformations between the headquarters and foreign subsidiaries of MNCs and significantly influence the ex post decision-making strategies of firms, encompassing aspects such as geographical location of operations and partner preferences.…”

Section: Complexity Science Black Swan Events and Catastrophes In Int...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Apocalypse unleashed: a critical perspective on complexity science, catastrophes, and black swan events in international business

Gonzales Martinez

2024

CPOIB

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Purpose The purpose of this study is to propose a methodological approach for modeling catastrophic consequences caused by black swan events, based on complexity science, and framed on Feyerabend’s anarchistic theory of knowledge. An empirical application is presented to illustrate the proposed approach. Design/methodology/approach Thom’s nonlinear differential equations of morphogenesis are used to develop a theoretical model of the impact of catastrophes on international business (IB). The model is then estimated using real-world data on the performance of multinational airlines during the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic. Findings The catastrophe model exhibits a remarkable capability to simultaneously capture complex linear and nonlinear relationships. Through empirical estimations and simulations, this approach enables the analysis of IB phenomena under normal conditions, as well as during black swan events. Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge, this study is the first attempt to estimate the impact of black swan events in IB using a catastrophe model grounded in complexity theory. The proposed model successfully integrates the abrupt and profound effects of catastrophes on multinational corporations, offering a critical perspective on the theoretical and practical use of complexity science in IB.

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Urban Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment and Mapping at the Microscale Based on the Catastrophe Progression Method

Gerçek,

Güven

2023

Int J Disaster Risk Sci

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Vulnerability assessment and mapping play a crucial role in disaster risk reduction and planning for adaptation to a future earthquake. Turkey is one of the most at-risk countries for earthquake disasters worldwide. Therefore, it is imperative to develop effective earthquake vulnerability assessment and mapping at practically relevant scales. In this study, a holistic earthquake vulnerability index that addresses the multidimensional nature of earthquake vulnerability was constructed. With the aim of representing the vulnerability as a continuum across space, buildings were set as the smallest unit of analysis. The study area is in İzmit City of Turkey, with the exposed human and structural elements falling inside the most hazardous zone of seismicity. The index was represented by the building vulnerability, socioeconomic vulnerability, and vulnerability of the built environment. To minimize the subjectivity and uncertainty that the vulnerability indices based on expert knowledge are suffering from, an extension of the catastrophe progression method for the objective weighing of indicators was proposed. Earthquake vulnerability index and components were mapped, a local spatial autocorrelation metric was employed where the hotspot maps demarcated the earthquake vulnerability, and the study quantitatively revealed an estimate of people at risk. With its objectivity and straightforward implementation, the method can aid decision support for disaster risk reduction and emergency management.

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Five decades of catastrophe theory research: Geographical atlas, knowledge structure and historical roots

Cited by 6 publications

References 99 publications

Dynamic Evaluation Method for Mutation Degree of Passenger Flow in Urban Rail Transit

Dynamic Evaluation Method for Mutation Degree of Passenger Flow in Urban Rail Transit

Apocalypse unleashed: a critical perspective on complexity science, catastrophes, and black swan events in international business

Urban Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment and Mapping at the Microscale Based on the Catastrophe Progression Method

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