Fitness-for-Service Assessment Approach for Ageing Pipeline Section Based on Sparse Historical Data

Abstract

Fitness-for-service (FFS) assessment is a common evaluation methodology in oil and gas industries to assess the integrity of in-service structures that may contain flaws, metal thinning and pitting damage. However, given the level of unknowns or missing information in the industry deterministic predictions are unacceptable and invariably the lower bound values could also be substantially conservative. The aim of this work is to develop a generic process to ensure, within a level of confidence, the operational safety and integrity of aging gas or oil pipelines sections based on available data. Fitness for service procedure according to “API 579-1/ASME FFS-1” is performed using local metal loss and micro-cracking to predict a range of safe life for the ageing pipeline operated for around 40 years. The mean value predictions of the present assessment indicate that the flaws away from the weld are within an acceptable boundary which implies the pipes would be fit to continue in operation and at least have 10 years remaining life, whilst the flaws near the weld need to be repaired as soon as possible. This is based on the best average values for the NDE and material property results available. However, adopting extreme caution in the analysis will render the pipes obsolete and ready for replacement. Understanding the risks to be taken in such situations becomes an expert system decision based not just on the FFS analysis but on both quantitative historical data, loading history, material degradation due to environment, corrosion rates and metallurgical analysis in addition to qualitative experience collected from other databases and pipes failure data. Beyond such a procedure the safe option would be a full burst pressure testing of the length of pipeline in question to identify possible leaks of old pipes.