2021
DOI: 10.3390/su13063135
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Fiscal Rules for Natural Disaster- and Climate Change-Prone Small States

Abstract: How should small states formulate a countercyclical fiscal policy to achieve economic stability and fiscal sustainability when they are prone to natural disasters, climate change, commodity price changes, and uncertain donor grants? We study how natural disasters and climate change affect long-term debt dynamics, and we propose cutting-edge fiscal policy rules. We find the primacy of a recurrent expenditure rule based on non-resource and non-grant revenue, interdependently determined by government debt and bud… Show more

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Cited by 19 publications
(8 citation statements)
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“…This is analogous to the inverted U-shaped relationship between public debt and economic growth (or fiscal balance)(Nakatani 2021b). The idea is that net benefits to debt financing arise for firms/countries with low debt levels but decrease as leverage reaches high levels.…”
mentioning
confidence: 87%
“…This is analogous to the inverted U-shaped relationship between public debt and economic growth (or fiscal balance)(Nakatani 2021b). The idea is that net benefits to debt financing arise for firms/countries with low debt levels but decrease as leverage reaches high levels.…”
mentioning
confidence: 87%
“…Therefore, our analysis indicates that policymakers in low-income countries should be very careful about this adverse effect on a nation's fiscal sustainability when decentralizing revenue administration to local governments. 1982-20191982-20191982-20191982-2019…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Accounting for other adaptive margins may also differentially drive the propagation of shocks in countries that are more sheltered from weather shocks. Similarly, the analysis does not account for fiscal policy responses that can be implemented to address climate-induced economic losses (Nakatani, 2021;Noy & Nualsri, 2011). First, these policies play usually a role in the aftermath of natural disasters.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%