Fiscal policy uncertainty and its effects on the real economy: German evidence

Beckmann, Joscha; Czudaj, Robert

doi:10.1093/oep/gpab009

Cited by 11 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…This implies that the uncertainty about the current year naturally decreases over time (e.g., it is much lower in November than in January). Therefore, to transform fixed event into fixed horizon forecasts, we apply the weighted averaging approach established by Patton and Timmermann (2011) and used in the related literature since then (Beckmann & Czudaj, 2018, 2021; Dovern et al, 2012). The simple idea is to use the weighted average of fixed event forecasts for the current

{\overset{f}{true}}_{1,0}

and the next year

{\overset{f}{true}}_{2,1}

with the weight

ω

of the former (latter) linearly decreasing (increasing) as time evolves.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of expectations for currency crisis dynamics—The case of the Turkish lira

Beckmann

Czudaj

2023

Journal of Forecasting

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This paper examines whether and how expectations have contributed to the turbulent path of the Turkish lira since 2008. We derive uncertainty measures surrounding GDP growth, inflation, the interest rate, and exchange rates based on survey data from Consensus Economics. Our results illustrate that forecasts have affected realized exchange rates and stock market returns via increased uncertainty. We also show that expectations regarding monetary policy have changed throughout the sample period. In line with a gradual adjustment of expectations professionals have accounted for the violation of the Taylor rule.

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{\overset{f}{true}}_{1,0}

and the next year

{\overset{f}{true}}_{2,1}

with the weight

ω

of the former (latter) linearly decreasing (increasing) as time evolves.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of expectations for currency crisis dynamics—The case of the Turkish lira

Beckmann

Czudaj

2023

Journal of Forecasting

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“…The study revealed that, when compared to fiscal policy, monetary policy via exchange rate was more successful in promoting growth. Beckmann and Czudaj (2021) used Italian data to compare alternative patterns of fiscal policy uncertainty (FPU) for the German economy. The influence of Germany's 'debt brake' on the FPU.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nexus Between Fiscal Policy Mechanism and Stock Market Output in a Growing Economy

Omodero

2023

Journal of Legal Studies

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Fiscal policy methods are critical to a country’s economic stability. However, when fiscal policy changes occur, all economic sectors react either favorably or adversely. The stock market is not spared from this reaction because it is likewise an important aspect of the economy. From 1998 through 2020, the inquiry looks at the link between fiscal policy mechanisms and stock market performance. The Levin, Lin, and Chu test is used to determine data stationarity. At zero latency, all factors remain constant. Other screening tools employed indicate that all datasets and models utilized in this work are of satisfactory quality. Pearson Product Moment Correlation (PPMC) is a statistical method used to investigate the link between fiscal policy plans and stock market results. Correlation coefficients quantify the strength of a link between two variables. The study’s findings indicate that fiscal measures such as tax income, domestic borrowing, government capital, and regular expenditure have a substantial and extremely strong positive relationship with Nigerian stock market returns. The study also indicates that foreign borrowing is harmful to Nigeria’s stock market advancement. Other data indicate that foreign borrowing has a modest to very weak link with other fiscal policy methods when compared to the outcomes of the other instruments. As a result, the report recommends increased tax income collection and a significant reduction in the country’s foreign debt.

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“…Fiscal policy is an important economic policy and the main tool for the government to guide the development of companies. Studies have shown that fiscal policy uncertainty has a profound impact on the development of the real economy (Beckmann & Czudaj, 2021). This paper analyzes the possible impact of fiscal policy uncertainty on corporate decision‐making and growth and expands the theoretical research on China's economic policy uncertainty from the perspective of fiscal policy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of fiscal policy uncertainty on corporate total factor productivity: Evidence from Chinese public companies

Zhang

2023

Contemporary Economic Policy

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This paper uses China's public companies to test the influence of fiscal policy uncertainty on corporate total factor productivity. The study finds that fiscal policy uncertainty has a negative impact on the total factor productivity, and the effect of conservative tax avoidance, a mediating variable between the two, is found more significant for non-state-owned and non-recession-stage enterprises. The study further finds that facing fiscal policy uncertainty, companies reduce R&D investment, which will deteriorate productivity. The overall results show that if the government maintains relatively stable fiscal policies, it will positively improve corporate total factor productivity, even in a longer period.

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Fiscal policy uncertainty and its effects on the real economy: German evidence

Cited by 11 publications

References 48 publications

The role of expectations for currency crisis dynamics—The case of the Turkish lira

The role of expectations for currency crisis dynamics—The case of the Turkish lira

Nexus Between Fiscal Policy Mechanism and Stock Market Output in a Growing Economy

The influence of fiscal policy uncertainty on corporate total factor productivity: Evidence from Chinese public companies

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