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This article analyzes the causes and consequences of fiscal consolidation promise gaps, defined as the distance between planned fiscal adjustments and actual consolidations. Using 74 consolidation episodes derived from the narrative approach in 17 advanced economies during 1978–2015, the paper shows that promise gaps were sizeable (about 0.3% of gross domestic product per year or 1.1% of gross domestic product during an average fiscal adjustment episode). Both economic and political factors explain the gaps: for example, greater electoral proximity, stronger political cohesion and higher accountability were all associated with smaller promise gaps. Finally, governments that delivered on their fiscal consolidation plans were rewarded by financial markets and not penalized by voters.
This article analyzes the causes and consequences of fiscal consolidation promise gaps, defined as the distance between planned fiscal adjustments and actual consolidations. Using 74 consolidation episodes derived from the narrative approach in 17 advanced economies during 1978–2015, the paper shows that promise gaps were sizeable (about 0.3% of gross domestic product per year or 1.1% of gross domestic product during an average fiscal adjustment episode). Both economic and political factors explain the gaps: for example, greater electoral proximity, stronger political cohesion and higher accountability were all associated with smaller promise gaps. Finally, governments that delivered on their fiscal consolidation plans were rewarded by financial markets and not penalized by voters.
The issues of modeling and analysis of revenues to the budget of value added tax using the mathematical ARIMA model by means of STATISTIKA package are investigated in this paper. Based on its application, recommendations for forecasting the revenues of this tax on the basis of current trends in its receipt are formed. On the basis of universal and non-universal argumentation and empiriсal data, the payment of this tax by business entities is considered. Value added tax (hereinafter – VAT) is an important indicator of the country's budget. The reliability and reality of the planned VAT indicator depend on the assessment of the state, forecast, seasonality and trends of economic and social development. Sustainable development, consistency of tax legislation, forms and methods of work with taxpayers, contribute to proper administration of taxes, efficient and complete receipt of payments to the budget, the level of financial and tax culture and other factors of socio – economic impact. This in turn leads to the confidence of entrepreneurs, investors to the state and the desire to work in it. The purpose of the article is to investigate the issues of analysis, modeling and forecasting of VAT payments for goods, works and services produced in the customs territory of Ukraine. At the macro level, special attention is paid to the projected amount of tax revenues to the budget. VAT should take an important place in tax planning and forecasting. Complete and adequate planning and forecasting, analysis of its revenues in practice is determined by the overall comprehensive and individual understanding of the nature, content and mechanism of administration. Insufficient theoretical development of forecasting and control of its payment, lack of a systematic approach to the investigation of this process, in practice makes it impossible to make effective management decisions on tax revenues, which the state can really rely on while implementing fiscal policy. The current practice requires the development of theoretical and methodological principles of modeling and tax forecasting of VAT, its analysis. These issues are investigated in this paper.
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