“… | Carlson | Messina | Samy | Mordecai (97.5% min) | Mordecai (2.5% max) |
n points | 242 | 323 | 168 | NA | NA |
n predictors | 15 | 6 | 15 | NA | NA |
AUC | 0.970 | 0.829 | NA | NA | NA |
Counties Predicted | 13 | 465 | 1616 | 1937 | 3108 |
Accuracy | 99.6% | 85.2% | 48.2% | 37.8% | 0.2% |
County Population at Risk | 19,653,445 | 95,359,408 | 270,249,781 | 218,444,263 | 320,957,062 |
Mean Outbreak Size | 12,871,005 | 63,622,367 | 181,290,371 | 37,598,099 | 198,910,979 |
Median Outbreak Size | 14,552,250 | 64,038,273 | 181,732,629 | 37,312,233 | 197,731,918 |
Four different methods, each performing well based on sufficient data and predictors, produce highly contrasting results. Out of a total of 3108 counties in the continental U.S., only five have experienced outbreaks (Cameron County, TX with 6 cases of local transmission in 2016; Miami-Dade, FL with 241; Palm Beach, FL with 8; Broward County, FL with 5; and Pinellas County, FL with 1) 39 , 69 . Accuracy values were calculated from the confusion matrix of observed outbreaks against predicted suitability.…”