First experience of seismodeformation monitoring of Baikal rift zone (by the example of South-Baikal earthquake of 27 August 2008)

Vstovsky, G. V.; Bornyakov, S. A.

doi:10.5194/nhess-10-667-2010

Cited by 5 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…The preliminary processing rock strain monitoring data under discussion that was done using method of analysis of curvature of structural functions [Vstovsky, Bornyakov, 2010] showed SOC of the deformation process occurred 10-14 days before the Kultuk earthquake. In this paper, the last time interval is examined as the final stage of deformation development in the focal zone and the state of the lithosphere in the one is interpreted as pre-seismogenic.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diagnostics of Meta-Instable State of Seismically Active Fault

Борняков¹,

Ma²,

Мирошниченко³

et al. 2017

Geodin. tektonofiz.

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Based on the results of a laboratory simulation of the seismic fault reactivation by "stick-slip" process, it was shown that the system of two blocks just before an impulse offset goes through the meta-instable dynamic state, with early and late stages of meta-instability [Ma et al., 2012]. In the first stage the offset begins in slow stationary mode with slow stresses relaxation on contact between blocks. In the second stage of the "accelerated synergies" strain rate increases and, subsequently, the deformation process through a process of self-organization came to dynamic impulse offset. The experimental results were used for interpretation of the results of spectral analysis of the deformation monitoring data. The data were held within the southern part of Lake Baikal, where Kultuk earthquake (27.08.2008, Ms=6.1). took place. Its epicenter was located in the South end zone of the main Sayan fault. Monitoring of deformations of rocks was carried out from April to November 2008 in tunnel, located at 30 km from the epicenter of the earthquake. The time series data was divided into month periods and then the periods were processed by the method of spectral analysis. The results showed that before the earthquake has ordered view spectrogram, whereas in other time intervals, both before and after the earthquake such orderliness in spectrograms is missing. An ordered view spectrograms for deformation monitoring data can be interpreted as a consequence of the self-organization of deformation process in the transition of seismically active fault into meta-unstable before the Kultuk earthquake.Key words: seismically active fault; meta-instability; earthquake; strain monitoring; spectral analysis; synergism et al., 2012] показано, что нагруженная система из двух блоков непосред-ственно перед реализацией импульсной подвижки проходит через метанестабильное динамическое состоя-ние, со стадиями ранней и поздней метанестабильности. В первую стадию процесс смещения одного блока относительно другого начинается в квазикриповом стационарном режиме с медленной релаксацией накоп-ленных на межблоковом контакте напряжений. Во вторую стадию «ускоренного синергизма» скорость сме-щения существенно возрастает и впоследствии через процесс самоорганизации и лавинообразного объеди-нения многочисленных активизированных сегментов межблокового контакта переходит в динамическую импульсную подвижку. С учетом этих экспериментальных выводов анализируются результаты спектрально-го анализа данных деформационного мониторинга, проведенного в пределах южной оконечности оз. Байкал, где 27.08.2008 г. произошло Култукское землетрясение (Ms=6.1). Его эпицентр располагался в южном окон-чании зоны Главного Саянского разлома. Мониторинг деформаций горных пород проводился с апреля по ноябрь 2008 г. в штольне, расположенной в 30 км от эпицентра землетрясения. Временной ряд данных был разделен на тридцатидневные интервалы, которые обрабатывались методом спектрального анализа. Ре-зультаты расчетов показали, что перед землетрясением спектрограмма имее...

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diagnostics of Meta-Instable State of Seismically Active Fault

Борняков¹,

Ma²,

Мирошниченко³

et al. 2017

Geodin. tektonofiz.

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“…Considering natural faults, we suggest that the self-organization process can be diagnosed by a digital analysis of the time series of rock deformation signals. We have tested this research approach by spectral analysis [Scargle, 1982[Scargle, , 1989Savransky, 2004;Bornyakov et al, 2017], entropy analysis [Brillouin, 1966;Zubarev et al, 2002;, and fractal analysis [Mandelbrot, 1982;Velde et al, 1990], and the structural functions curvature analysis method (SFCAM) [Vstovsky, 2006[Vstovsky, , 2008Bornyakov, Vstovsky, 2010].…”

Section: Basic Concepts For Elaborating a Technology Using Rock Defor...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…12 shows the result obtained by the structural functions curvature analysis method (SFCAM) [Vstovsky, 2006]. The first experience of using SFCAM for processing of rock deformation monitoring data is described in detail in [Bornyakov, Vstovsky, 2010]. Here, the physical sense of a struc tural function (SF) should be mentioned -the SF growth for small lags implies the appearance of temporary interrelations in the signal, which suggests coherent behavior of elements comprising the system analyzed.…”

Section: Rock Deformationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In 2008, the SDVIG recorder was installed in the adit near the Talaya Seismic Station [Ruzhich, 2004]. This hardware system consolidates the rock deformation monitoring database that is used to substantiate theoretical and methodological principles for developing a new approach to intermediate-and short-term prediction and forecasting of earthquakes [Bornyakov, Vstovsky, 2010;Vstovsky, Bornyakov, 2010].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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New Approach to Strong Earthquake Prediction in the South Baikal Region on the Basis of Rock Deformation Monitoring Data: Methodology and Results

Bornyakov

Мирошниченко

Vstovsky

et al. 2022

Geodin. tektonofiz.

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The Southern Baikal is located within the actively developing Baikal rift zone (BRZ) that is characterized by a significant seismic potential, and M>7 earthquakes occur periodically with intensive shaking in the epicenters (up to 10 units). The problem of prediction and forecasting of strong earthquakes has always been critical for this region, considering its increasing urbanization, industrial clusters and transport systems. The article describes the methodology based on rock deformation monitoring data, which aims at developing a technology capable of efficient prediction and forecasting of strong earthquakes. In the Institute of Earth’s Crust SB RAS a set of studies is carried out in order to solve this problem, including those associated with the instrumental study of current movements of the lithosphere through GPS geodesy and deformations of rocks by strain gauges. The existing GPS sites and deformation measurements are combined into the Large-Scale Research Facilities "South Baikal instrumental complex for monitoring hazardous geodynamic processes" in frame of the Shared Research Facilities "Geodynamics and Geochronology" at the Institute of the Earth’s Crust, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science.In this article, the deformation monitoring methodology is described in application to the monitoring sites installed in the study area. The description includes the details of its conceptual basis, technical support and data processing methods. The discussion focuses on the instrumental measurements of rock deformation related to three strong events in the study area – Kultuk (August 27, 2008), Bystrinskoe (September 21, 2020), and Kudara (December 10, 2020) earthquakes. The features of the deformation process before these seismic events are given special attention with account of the structural-geodynamic settings and positions of local monitoring sites relative to the earthquake epicenters.

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“…Такая интерпретация существенно обогатила представления о зоне разлома и привела, с одной стороны, к введению нового понятия, характеризующего его особое динамическое состояние как сложной, иерархически построенной структурно-динамической системы, с другой -позволила предложить новый подход к прогнозным построениям. Примерами его реализации являются разрабатываемые способ прогноза алмазоносных кимберлитовых тел [Gladkov et al, 2008;Matrosov et al, 2004] и способ прогноза землетрясений [Bornyakov et al, 2013;Bornyakov, 2010;Vstovsky, Bornyakov, 2010].…”

Section: заключениеunclassified

Main regularities of faulting in lithosphere and their application (based on physical modelling results)

Борняков¹,

Семинский²,

Буддо³

et al. 2014

Geodyn. Tectonophys.

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Results of long-term experimental studies and modelling of faulting are briefly reviewed, and research methods and the-state-of-art issues are described. The article presents the main results of faulting modelling with the use of non-transparent elasto-viscous plastic and optically active models. An area of active dynamic influence of fault (AADIF) is the term introduced to characterise a fault as a 3D geological body. It is shown that AADIF's width (М) is determined by thickness of the layer wherein a fault occurs (Н), its viscosity (η) and strain rate (V). Multiple correlation equations are proposed to show relationships between AADIF's width (М), H, η and V for faults of various morphological and genetic types. The irregularity of AADIF in time and space is characterised in view of staged formation of the internal fault structure of such areas and geometric and dynamic parameters of AADIF which are changeable along the fault strike. The authors pioneered in application of the open system conception to find explanations of regularities of structure formation in AADIFs. It is shown that faulting is a synergistic process of continuous changes of structural levels of strain, which differ in manifestation of specific selfsimilar fractures of various scales. Such levels are changeable due to self-organization processes of fracture systems. Fracture dissipative structures (FDS) is the term introduced to describe systems of fractures that are subject to self-organization. It is proposed to consider informational entropy and fractal dimensions in order to reveal FDS in AADIF. Studied are relationships between structure formation in AADIF and accompanying processes, such as acoustic emission and terrain development above zones wherein faulting takes place. Optically active elastic models were designed to simulate the stress-and-strain state of AADIF of main standard types of fault jointing zones and their analogues in nature, and modelling results are reported in the article. A good correlation is revealed between the available seismological, structural geological and geodetic data.

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First experience of seismodeformation monitoring of Baikal rift zone (by the example of South-Baikal earthquake of 27 August 2008)

Cited by 5 publications

References 15 publications

Diagnostics of Meta-Instable State of Seismically Active Fault

Diagnostics of Meta-Instable State of Seismically Active Fault

New Approach to Strong Earthquake Prediction in the South Baikal Region on the Basis of Rock Deformation Monitoring Data: Methodology and Results

Main regularities of faulting in lithosphere and their application (based on physical modelling results)

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