First estimation of hourly full-coverage ground-level ozone from Fengyun-4A satellite using machine learning

Abstract

Ground-level ozone (O3), renowned for its adverse impacts on human health and crop production, has garnered significant attention from governmental and public sectors. To address the limitations posed by sparse and uneven ground-level O3 observations, this study proposes an innovative method for hourly full-coverage ground-level O3 estimation using machine learning. Meteorological data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecasting system (GFS), satellite data from Fengyun-4A(FY-4A) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), emission inventory from Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), and other auxiliary data are utilized as input variables, while ground-based O3 observations serve as the response variable. The method is applied on a monthly basis across China for the year 2022, resulting in the generation of an hourly full-coverage high-resolution (4km) ground-level O3 estimation, termed ML-derived-O3. Cross-validation results demonstrate the robustness of ML-derived-O3 yielding a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.96 (0.91) for sample-based (site-based) evaluations and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 9.22 (13.65) µg/m3. However, the date-based evaluation is less satisfactory due to the imbalanced training data, resulting from the pronounced daily variations in ground-level O3 concentrations. Nevertheless, the seasonal and hourly ML-derived-O3 exhibits high prediction accuracy, with R2 values surpassing0.95 and RMSE remaining below 7.5 µg/m3. This study marks a significant milestone as the first successful attempt to obtain hourly full-coverage ground-level O3 data across China. The diurnal variation of ML-derived-O3 demonstrates high consistency with ground-based observations, irrespective of clear or cloudy days, effectively capturing ground-level O3 pollution exposure events. This novel estimation method will be employed to establish a long-term high spatial-temporal resolution ground-level O3 dataset, which holds valuable applications for air pollution monitoring and environmental health research in future endeavors.