Firearms Costs, Firearms Benefits and the Limits of Knowledge

Polsby, Daniel D.

doi:10.2307/1144007

Cited by 18 publications

(12 citation statements)

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“…Nonetheless, legislators often promote these policies as a response to violent crime or as being in the interest of public safety because of their potential deterrence effects. 2 I write "perceived" because crime began to fall in earnest in early 1990s, but public concern remained high throughout the majority of the decade (Polsby, 1995). 3 A previous reader of this article has noted the expanding concealed carry can deter crime by increasing the number of attempted crimes halted in progress by firearm carriers.…”

Section: Concealed Carry and Crimementioning

confidence: 99%

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Can Easing Concealed Carry Deter Crime?*

Fortunato

2015

Social Science Quarterly

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Objective. Laws reducing hurdles to legally carrying concealed firearms are argued to have a deterrent effect on crime by increasing its perceived costs. This argument rests on the assumption that these policies will either directly or indirectly increase the perceived distribution of firearm carriers, an assumption that is as yet untested. This article tests this assumption and, in so doing, suggests testing the necessary conditions of policy can be useful when assessing outcomes is difficult. Methods. I collect survey data on the perceived number of firearm carriers across the United States and then use a hierarchical regression model to assess the impact of concealed carry policies on these perceptions, controlling for several contextual and individual-level factors. Results. The data suggest that there is no statistically discernible relationship between concealed carry policies and the public's perceptions of the number of firearm carriers. Indeed, the data suggest that the perceived density of firearm carriers is similarly uncorrelated to the number of active concealed carriers. Conclusion. The link between concealed carry policy and people's beliefs about the number of firearm carriers in their community is unidentifiable in the data. The rationale for concealed carry deterrence, however, depends on such a link existing: it assumes that potential assailants are aware of the distribution of firearm carriers in the potential victim population, but the empirical evidence presented here suggests that that assumption simply does not hold. Because beliefs over the distribution of firearm carriers are impervious to permitting policies and do not respond positively to the true distribution of carriers, the data suggest easing concealed carry cannot deter crime.

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Section: Concealed Carry and Crimementioning

confidence: 99%

“…I write “perceived” because crime began to fall in earnest in early 1990s, but public concern remained high throughout the majority of the decade (Polsby, ).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Can Easing Concealed Carry Deter Crime?*

Fortunato

2015

Social Science Quarterly

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“…We start with the view that homicides (defined as murders + nonnegligent manslaughters) are neither no more, nor no less, than aggravated assaults with the outcome of the victim's death 134 HOMICIDE STUDIES / May 2002 (see, particularly, Zimring, 1968; see also Cook, 1991;Morris & Hawkins, 1970;Pittman & Handy, 1964;Polsby, 1995). Factors that affect whether an aggravated assault victim lives or dies necessarily have a critical impact on the recorded homicide.…”

Section: Analysis Planmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the largest or Group I cities, lethality is quite high. It 142 HOMICIDE STUDIES / May 200219601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198419871988198919911994199519971999 Year 0 1 9 6 4 1 9 6 5 1 9 6 6 1 9 6 7 1 9 6 8 1 9 6 9 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 1 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 3 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 8 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9…”

Section: Analysis I: National Drops In Lethality 1960-1999mentioning

confidence: 99%

Murder and Medicine

et al. 2002

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Despite the proliferation of increasingly dangerous weapons and the very large increase in rates of serious criminal assault, since 1960, the lethality of such assault in the United States has dropped dramatically. This paradox has barely been studied and needs to be examined using national time-series data. Starting from the basic view that homicides are aggravated assaults with the outcome of the victim’s death, we assembled evidence from national data sources to show that the principal explanation of the downward trend in lethality involves parallel developments in medical technology and related medical support services that have suppressed the homicide rate compared to what it would be had such progress not been made. We argue that research into the causes and deterability of homicide would benefit from a “lethality perspective” that focuses on serious assaults, only a small proportion of which end in death.

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“…SeeDonohue (2003) for a study that suggests these policies are bad;Polsby (1995), Mustard (1997), or Lott (2010) for studies that suggest these policies are good; orDezhbakhsh and Rubin (1998) for an analysis that finds inconclusive, mixed results.…”

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confidence: 99%

Geographic Proximity in the Diffusion of Concealed Weapons Permit Laws

2012

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Previous research has failed to adequately address why we should expect the diffusion of policy innovations in the realm of gun policy. As a social regulatory policy, gun policy may be highly influenced by policy adoptions in neighboring regions, in part due to the high likelihood of spillover effects. This article discusses under what conditions we should expect policy diffusion to occur from neighboring jurisdictions. We use event‐history analyses to evaluate impact of neighboring states diffusion pressure on the adoption of “shall issue” concealed weapons laws between 1974 and 2007. Neighboring diffusion pressure has a significant effect on policy adoption even when controlling for National Rifle Association membership and a previous adoption of a similar policy (“may issue” permit). We provide a rationale why scholars should find neighboring diffusion effects in some policy areas but not others. Related Articles Related Media Documentary: BBC. . “This World: Virginia Tech Massacre.” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7uEpHFhDS4&list=LPz814mog8j1U&index=3&feature=plcp Audiovisual Resources: CNN. . “Massacre at Virginia Tech: CNN Special Report.” http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2007/virginiatech.shootings/ Investigaciones anteriores no han tenido éxito en evaluar el por qué se debería esperar la difusión de políticas innovadoras en el ámbito de la regulación de armas. Vista como una política regulatoria social, la regulación de armas puede ser altamente influenciada por las regulaciones adoptadas en las regiones adyacentes, en parte debido a la alta probabilidad de efectos de propagación. Este estudio analiza bajo qué condiciones deberíamos esperar la difusión de políticas en jurisdicciones adyacentes. Usamos un Análisis de Eventos Históricos para evaluar el impacto de la presión en la difusión de estados adyacentes en la adopción de políticas “Shall Issue” para armas encubiertas entre 1974 y 2007. La presión en la difusión de estados contiguos tiene un efecto significativo en la adopción de regulaciones aún cuando se controla por membresía en la NRA y previas adopciones de políticas similares (permisos “May Issue”). Brindamos una explicación del por qué se deberían de encontrar efectos de difusión adyacentes en algunas políticas pero no en otras.

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Firearms Costs, Firearms Benefits and the Limits of Knowledge

Cited by 18 publications

References 0 publications

Can Easing Concealed Carry Deter Crime?*

Can Easing Concealed Carry Deter Crime?*

Murder and Medicine

Geographic Proximity in the Diffusion of Concealed Weapons Permit Laws

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