Fire evolution in the radioactive forests of Ukraine and Belarus: future risks for the population and the environment

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the current and future status of forests in Ukraine and Belarus that were contaminated after the nuclear disaster in 1986. Using several models, together with remote-sensing data and observations, we studied how climate change in these forests may affect fire regimes. We investigated the possibility of Cs-137 displacement over Europe by studying previous fire events, and examined three fire scenarios that depended on different emission altitudes of Cs-137, assuming that 10% of the forests were affected by fires. Field measurements and modeling simulations confirmed that numerous radioactive contaminants are still present at these sites in extremely large quantities. Forests in Eastern Europe are characterized by large, highly fire-prone patches that are conducive to the development of extreme crown fires. Since 1986, there has been a positive correlation between extreme fire events and drought in the two contaminated regions. Litter carbon storage in the area has doubled since 1986 due to increased tree mortality and decreased decomposition rates; dead trees and accumulating litter in turn can provide fuel for wildfires that pose a high risk of redistributing radioactivity in future years. Intense fires in 2002, 2008, and 2010 resulted in the displacement of Cs-137 to the south; the cumulative amount of Cs-137 re-deposited over Europe was equivalent to 8% of that deposited following the initial Chernobyl disaster. However, a large amount of Cs-137 still remains in these forests, which could be remobilized along with a large number of other dangerous, long-lived, refractory radionuclides. We predict that an expanding flammable area associated with climate change will lead to a high risk of radioactive contamination with characteristic fire peaks in the future. Current fire-fighting infrastructure in the region is inadequate due to understaffing and lack of funding. Our data yield the first cogent predictions for future fire incidents and provide scientific insights that could inform and spur evidence-based policy decisions concerning highly contaminated regions around the world, such as those of Chernobyl

Evaluation of Radioactive Air Contamination due to a Forest Fire within the Exclusion Zone on June 5–8, 2018

“…Increasing the 137 Cs activity concentration in the air was reported in Sweden [6] and Lithuania [7] during extensive forest fires in the radioactive contaminated territory of Ukraine and Belarus in 1987-2003. According to [8], several fires Wildland fires may result in additional contamination of the air both in the immediate vicinity of the fire territory and over long distances, including long-range atmospheric transport of fine aerosol. Therefore, different types of models of emission, following atmospheric transport and deposition of fire products are developed for the local area around the fire (up to 10 km) [9,10] and mesoscale and long-range atmospheric transport [8,[11][12][13][14][15].…”

“…According to [8], several fires Wildland fires may result in additional contamination of the air both in the immediate vicinity of the fire territory and over long distances, including long-range atmospheric transport of fine aerosol. Therefore, different types of models of emission, following atmospheric transport and deposition of fire products are developed for the local area around the fire (up to 10 km) [9,10] and mesoscale and long-range atmospheric transport [8,[11][12][13][14][15]. The main features of the radionuclide atmospheric transport models for different spatial and temporal scales are determined primarily by the nature of the diffusion processes of pollutants in the atmosphere, and they are similar for both models of emissions from point sources -e. g., from a nuclear power plant (NPP) stack -and for the re-suspension models during forest fires.…”

“…The results of simulation of the radioactive aerosol atmospheric transport due to a fire in forest areas in the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone (near the ISF-2) during June [5][6][7][8]2018 are presented. To assess its consequences, a modeling complex of the Institute for Safety Problems of Nuclear Power Plants was used, which includes a mesoscale weather forecast model WRF, model of convective plume formation over the fire area, and the Lagrangian-Eulerian diffusion radionuclide atmospheric transport model LEDI.…”

Cytogenetic activity of radionuclide contamination of water reservoirs of the alienation zone of Chornobyl NPP

“…Через 30 років після Чорнобильської катастрофи зона відчуження продовжує залишатись відкритим джерелом поширення радіонуклідів, що надходять із поверхневими та ґрунтовими водами в річкові системи та виносяться за її межі (Beresford et al, 2016;Evangeliou et al, 2016;Konoplev et al, 2016). Водойми басейнів Дніпра та Прип'ятіодні з найбільших водних систем у Європізосередили близько 2,3 пБк 90 Sr і 19,6 пБк 137 Cs (Romanenko et al, 2014;Evangeliou et al, 2015). Більшість радіонуклідів, що потрапили до водойм, досить швидко акумулювалась донними відкладами.…”

A probabilistic risk assessment for the vulnerability of the European carbon cycle to weather extremes: the ecosystem perspective

“…The suitability of the LPJmL framework for vegetation and water studies has been demonstrated by validating simulated phenology (Bondeau et al, 2007), river discharge (Gerten et al, 2004;Biemans et al, 2009), soil moisture (Wagner et al, 2003), evapotranspiration (Sitch et al, 2003;Gerten et al, 2004) and carbon stored in litter biomass on the ground for temperate and boreal European ecosystems (Evangeliou et al, 2015).…”