Fire emissions estimates in Siberia: evaluation of uncertainties in area burned, land cover, and fuel consumption

Abstract

Boreal forests constitute the world's largest terrestrial carbon pools. The main natural disturbance in these forests is wildfire, which modifies the carbon budget and atmosphere, directly and indirectly. Wildfire emissions in Russia contribute substantially to the global carbon cycle and have potentially important feedbacks to changing climate. Published estimates of carbon emissions from fires in Russian boreal forests vary greatly depending on the methods and data sets used. We examined various fire and vegetation products used to estimate wildfire emissions for Siberia. Large (up to fivefold) differences in annual and monthly area burned estimates for Siberia were found among four satellite-based fire data sets. Official Russian data were typically less than 10% of satellite estimates. Differences in the estimated proportion of annual burned area within each ecosystem were as much as 40% among five land-cover products. As a result, fuel consumption estimates would be expected to vary widely (3%–98%) depending on the specific vegetation mapping product used and as a function of weather conditions. Verification and validation of burned area and land-cover data sets along with the development of fuel maps and combustion models are essential for accurate Siberian wildfire emission estimates, which are central to balancing the carbon budget and assessing feedbacks to climate change.

Remote Sensing Techniques in Monitoring Post-Fire Effects and Patterns of Forest Recovery in Boreal Forest Regions: A Review

“…MODIS MCD64A1 reported the smallest area burned for almost the whole year from 2000 to 2011, whereas the estimates from the combination of AVHRR and MODIS burned area product (AVHRR/MODIS) [117,118] were consistently greater than the MCD45A1 and MCD64A1 products by 6%-560% [139]. The great variation among burned area estimates in the region of Siberia have been accounted for through the instrument capabilities (e.g., resolution, cloud cover, fire types detection), differing methods of analysis and the absence of official data for the calibration and validation of burned areas [139]. These suggest that the use of global burned area products for local and regional scales should be validated and compared with other independent datasets (e.g., higher resolution datasets and official fire data) to quantify omission/commission errors.…”

“…The MCD45A1 dataset underestimated and resulted in a higher fraction of burned area compared to the GFED3 data [62]. Similarly, Kukavskaya et al [139] found that estimates of burned areas in the region of Siberia from 2000 to 2011 differed significantly and were inconsistent within the data sources. MODIS MCD64A1 reported the smallest area burned for almost the whole year from 2000 to 2011, whereas the estimates from the combination of AVHRR and MODIS burned area product (AVHRR/MODIS) [117,118] were consistently greater than the MCD45A1 and MCD64A1 products by 6%-560% [139].…”

“…This also requires examining a suitable method of remote sensing for gathering data in reconstructing long-term burned areas. Because the accuracy of long-time series data of burned areas is important for modeling fire emissions and assessing feedback between fires and global climate change [139], the use of products derived from global burned areas, such as MODIS burned area products, GFED, L3JRC, GLOBCARBON and GEOLAND-2, at local and regional scales requires validation prior to applying the products at local and regional scales. Comparisons and critical reviews of the accuracy of those different burned areas' products are well reported in the literature [62,129,140].…”

“…Similarly, Kukavskaya et al [139] found that estimates of burned areas in the region of Siberia from 2000 to 2011 differed significantly and were inconsistent within the data sources. MODIS MCD64A1 reported the smallest area burned for almost the whole year from 2000 to 2011, whereas the estimates from the combination of AVHRR and MODIS burned area product (AVHRR/MODIS) [117,118] were consistently greater than the MCD45A1 and MCD64A1 products by 6%-560% [139]. The great variation among burned area estimates in the region of Siberia have been accounted for through the instrument capabilities (e.g., resolution, cloud cover, fire types detection), differing methods of analysis and the absence of official data for the calibration and validation of burned areas [139].…”

Simulating Changes in Fires and Ecology of the 21st Century Eurasian Boreal Forests of Siberia

“…However, the central Siberian site is representative of most of central Siberian middle taiga forest with regards to climate, topography, soils and type of forest and, in recent decades, has experienced an increase in the length of the fire season and intensification of the fire regime [59]. The southern taiga location represents an area where approximately 40% of annual fires in Russia occur [60]. It also represents a region of Siberia where shifts in vegetation type associated with climate change have already been observed [28] and the increase in frequency and intensity of fires is facilitating a non-reversible (on the human time scale) shift from forest to steppe or grassland [29,60].…”