The CNBSS-2 among women aged 50 -59 did not show any significant difference in breast cancer mortality between a control arm screened annually by CBE and a study arm screened by CBE and mammography. Because of this design, the benefit of screening compared to no screening could not be evaluated. We therefore conducted a modeling effort to estimate the benefit of mammography or CBE compared to no screening. We incorporated demographic, epidemiologic and screening characteristics of the CNBSS-2 in MISCAN. Stage-specific sensitivities of CBE, with and without mammography, and breast cancer incidence rate in the trial were estimated by comparing observed trial data with model predictions. We predicted the number of breast cancer deaths for both study arms of the CNBSS-2 and in the absence of screening, assuming improvement in prognosis by early detection. We estimated a 24 -29% higher breast cancer incidence rate in the CNBSS-2 than the average Canadian rate.
Key words: breast cancer; screening; mortality; mammography; clinical breast examination; Canadian National Breast Screening Study-2Several randomized controlled trials have assessed the efficacy of mammography screening at reducing breast cancer mortality. An updated overview of 4 Swedish randomized trials showed breast cancer mortality reductions in invited women of 16% (50 -59 years) and 33% (60 -69 years). 1 However, in a Cochrane review, the authors found smaller breast cancer mortality reductions in 2 so-called medium-quality trials. 2 The Malmö trial and the CNBSS-2 showed 20% (Ն55 years) and 3% (50 -59 years) breast cancer mortality reductions after 7 years of follow-up.The CNBSS-2, however, was designed to evaluate the efficacy of annual mammography over and above annual CBE. The 7-and 13-year follow-up results of this randomized trial did not show a significant difference in mortality from breast cancer between the 2 groups, even though high detection rates were found. 3,4 Because the control arm was screened, no estimations of mammography benefit compared to no screening could be made, as is available from other mammography trials, nor any estimate of the benefit of CBE screening.Here, we provide a quantitative interpretation of the CNBSS-2 results, using a MISCAN model evaluation of the trial. MISCAN is a microsimulation program, which has been successfully applied in the evaluation of different cancer-screening programs. [5][6][7] The main purpose of the model evaluation is to show what can be learned about breast cancer screening for women aged 50 and above and about the natural history of the disease from the CNBSS-2 in relation to what we know from other breast cancerscreening trials. The evaluation addresses 2 specific questions: (i) Can any explanations, resulting from the model evaluation, be given for the observed equal breast cancer mortality in both study arms of the CNBSS-2? (ii) What percentage of breast cancer mortality reduction by mammography screening compared to no screening can we estimate for the CNBSS-2?
MATERIAL AND METHODS
CNB...