Finding High Risk Persons with Internet Tests to Manage Risk—A Literature Review with Policy Implications to Avoid Violent Tragedies, Save Lives and Money

Abstract

The goal is to share policy implications of sensitive, specific internet-based tests in place of current approaches to lowering violence, namely fewer mass murders, suicides, homicides. When used, internet-based tests save lives and money. From 2009-2015, a Chicago field test had 324 fewer homicides (saving $2,089,848,548, ROI=6.42). In 60 yrs., conventional approaches for high risk persons (e.g.,. inappropriately releasing poor, severely mentally ill) led to unnecessary expense including yearly: (a) 300 mass murders (59% demonstrating psychiatric conditions); (b) 1-6% having costly personnel challenges; (c) 2,100,000 "revolving door" Emergency-Room (ER) psychiatric admissions (41,149 suicides, 90% mentally ill); (d) 10,000,000 prisoners (14,146 homicides, 20% psychiatric challenges). Current metrics fail [success rates from 25%-73%: (1) for background checks (25%); (2) interviews (M=46%); (3) physical exams (M=49%); (4) other tests (M=73%)]. Internet-based tests are simultaneously sensitive (97%), specific (97%), non-discriminatory, objective, inexpensive, $100/test, require 2-4 hrs.

Trial-Lawyer Leaders in Court Change Institutions Forcing the Use of Tests and Equations So That Challenged Ones Become Successfully Healthy Thus Safeguarding Schools and Workplaces from the High-Risk Homicidal, Mass-Murdering and Sex-Offending

“…In Figure 2, there is the steady growth of mass-murders from 1936 to 2023 in an upward-opening, parabola third degree curve (adding an x 3 term to a parabolic model) with a total of 787 (Zagar et al, 2022;Statistica, 2024 The financial effects of pedophilia scandals within the corporate U.S. Roman Catholic Church leads to significant losses, causing 24 out of 194-dioceses to declare bankruptcy (McKeowan, 2023) which makes up 13% of the total, accompanied by 18-bankruptcies among religious organizations. There is a projection that all dioceses face bankruptcy by the year 2144 (Zagar et al, 2016). To deal with these challenges, popes, bishops, and other authorities within the church have not used tests and equations despite repeated requests to do so.…”

“…Figure 6. 2024 24 Bankrupt Dioceses with 194 Catholic Dioceses Broke: 2144 (Zagar, et al, 2016) $ (Rice and Harris, 1997;Dutta et al, 2007;Bjornaas et al, 2008;Soothill et al, 2008;DeLisi, Ruelas, and Kruse, 2019;Binswanger, Nguyen, Morenoff, Xu, and Harding, 2020;Miller, Swedler, Lawrence, Bina, Ian, et al, 2020;Tammes, 2022). Would anyone go to a business that provided such a low success rate?…”

“…Undoubtedly the customer would search for another solution. In summary, machine-learning, internet-based tests and equation prove to be cost-effective, objective, reliable, sensitive, specific, and valid, offering an outstanding 97% accuracy and precision in identifying at-risk individuals (Meehl, 1954;Sepajak,1983;Milner, 1986;Lidz, 1993;Monahan, 1996;Grove and Meehl, 1996;Rice, Harris, and Quinsey, 1996;Quinsey, et al 1998;Zagar, Zagar, Arbit, Bartikowski, Busch, et al, 2009 Zagar, Kovach, Basile, Grove, Hughes, Busch, Zablocki, Osnowitz, Neuhegen, Liu, and Zagar, 2013;Kamphaus and Reynolds, 2015, a, b;Zagar, Zagar, Zagar, Busch, Garbarino, Ferrari, et al, 2016;Zagar, et al, 2019;Zagar, et al, 2022 a, b, c;Garbarino, Zagar, et al, 2022;Zagar, et al, 2023). Only 5% of professionals (attorneys, executives, human resources, judges, physicians, principals, presidents, psychiatrists, psychologists, teachers, social workers, therapists) when polled at national and international conferences by the coauthors that use tests-equations universally with high-risk or most they have to deal with.…”

16-Questions to Find Domestic-Terrorists, Mass-Murderers, Spree-Shooters, With a Study-1: 370-Workplace-Shooters vs. 370-Controls, and a Study-2: 9-Adult-Shooters With 12-Homicidal and 24-Controls Rated on the Ask Standard Predictor of Violence Potential-Adult Version and the MMPI-2: Implications Are to Use Computer-Tests and Machine-Learning-Equations to Lower Insurance Premiums and Prevent Church Bankruptcy

“…Two issues impede the prevention of mass-murdering massacres. The first is the fact that only computer-tests and machine-learning-equations can find multiple-murdering persons with 97% objectivity, reliability, specificity, sensitivity, and validity (Zagar, Kovach, Basile, Grove, Hughes, Busch, et al, 2013;Zagar, Zagar, Busch, Garbarino, Ferrari, et al, 2016;Zagar, et al, 2019). The second issue is the limitations of deceptive self-presentation of neurological and psychiatric issues, which is what workplace-shooters have.…”

“…There are 40,300 deceptive self-presentations, and 40,300,000 deceptive neurological and psychiatric self-presentations. Any professional, regardless of specialization, who says that their interview-judgment (46%), unstructured medical exam (49%), and background or credit check (25%) can discover these challenges should be considered biased, error-prone, and spurious because combined that accuracy and precision is 39% vs. the 97% for computer-tests and equations (Zagar, Zagar, Arbit, Bartikowski, and Busch, 2009;Zagar and Grove, 2010;Zagar, Kovach, Basile, Grove, Hughes, Busch, et al, 2013;Zagar, Zagar, Busch, Garbarino, Ferrari, et al, 2016). People generally believe that they are capable of identifying individuals who are high-risk.…”