“…Second, market imperfections or regulatory distortions including limited foresight, excessive discounting or insufficient policy credibility may distort price formation and anticipation downwards in the short to mid term (e.g., Fuss et al, 2018;Quemin and Trotignon, 2021). Third, carbon price formation may be driven by various factors other than fundamentals, making it difficult to predict future prices (e.g., Friedrich et al, 2020;Quemin and Pahle, 2023).…”