Financial Development, Integration, Inclusion, and Economic Growth: Co-Integrating Relationships and Threshold Analysis

Abstract

This study examines the short and long-run relationships between financial development, integration, inclusion, and economic growth in SADC, as well as the corresponding threshold levels. Covering the period 1995 to 2020, the ARDL technique was used to test for co-integrating relationships, and the GLS was utilized for the determination of the respective threshold levels. The study establishes that bank credit to the private sector negatively affects economic growth in the long run. Most SADC countries were still operating below their respective minimum financial development threshold levels. It is observed that there are no threshold levels for financial integration in SADC, although the result, compared with the threshold levels of financial development seems to suggest that the financial domestic system and some level of economic development are a prerequisite for financial integration decisions. The financial inclusion threshold level for poor SADC countries is low. Yet most of these countries had the highest mobile banking facilities in the region. One possible indication can be that these countries may be operating at financial inclusion levels detrimental to economic growth. Financial development, along with its facets of financial integration and financial inclusion, is found to be the driver of economic growth in SADC. SADC countries, therefore, need to establish a strategic mix of these facets of financial development for the realization of significant economic growth.