We document considerable return comovement associated with accruals after controlling for other common factors. An accrual-based factor-mimicking portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 0.15, higher than that of the market factor or the HML factor of Fama and French (1993). In time series regressions, a model that includes the Fama-French factors and the additional accrual factor captures the accrual anomaly in average returns. However, further time series and cross-sectional tests indicate that it is the accrual characteristic rather than the accrual factor loading that predicts returns. These findings favor a behavioral explanation for the accrual anomaly.Keywords: Capital markets, accruals, market efficiency, behavioral accounting, behavioral finance, limited attention JEL Classification: M41, M43, G12, G14We thank Nai-Fu Chen, Kent Daniel, Bruce Johnson, Mort Pincus, Sheridan Titman, Yinglei Zhang, and workshop participants at Georgetown University, University of California-Berkeley, University of California-Irvine, and University of Iowa for very helpful comments.
IntroductionOver the last decade, a large body of research has explored the accrual anomaly-the finding that firms with high operating accruals earn lower average returns than firms with low operating accruals, both in the U.S. (Sloan 1996) and in several other countries (Pincus, Rajgopal, and Venkatachalam (2005)). A conventional explanation for this effect is that the higher average returns for low accrual firms are compensation for higher systematic risk. In the multi-factor asset pricing models such as those of Merton (1973) and Ross (1976), security expected returns are increasing with the loadings ("betas") on multiple factors (not just the market, as in the CAPM). To explain the accrual anomaly in such models would require that the level of a firm's accruals be associated with the covariances of its returns with one or more aggregate risk factors. Specifically, low accrual firms would need to have sufficiently high loadings on priced systematic factors to justify their higher returns.An alternative explanation for the accrual anomaly is that the stock market is inefficient, and that investors naively fail to distinguish between the different forecasting power of the accruals and cash flow components of earnings for future earnings. In consequence, they are too optimistic about firms with high accruals and too pessimistic about firms with low accruals, implying irrationally high prices for high accrual firms and low prices for low accrual firms. High accrual firms therefore earn low abnormal returns and low accrual firms earn high abnormal returns.The accrual anomaly raises two important questions. First, is there common variation in stock returns related to accruals? In other words, do prices of high and low accrual firms comove, so that there is systematic risk associated with accruals? In a rational 2 frictionless market, such comovement is a necessary condition for the accrual anomaly to derive from risk. We find that an accrual factor-mimickin...