Final sizes and durations of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine and around the world predicted by generalized SIR model

Nesteruk, Igor

doi:10.1101/2021.11.22.21266683

Cited by 3 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…The assessments of the pandemic wave durations (corresponding the moment when the number of infectious persons becomes less that unit) are very pessimistic (April, 2023 for Germany and September 2025 for Poland). Similar long epidemic waves were predicted for India [33] and the whole world [31] with the use of the same generalized SIR model. In particular, if the global situation with vaccination, testing and treatment will not change, the COVID-19 pandemic could continue for another ten years [31].…”

Section: Table 3 Optimal Values Of Parameters and Other Characteristics The Covid-19 Pandemic Waves In Poland Germany And Ukrainesupporting

confidence: 65%

“…Similar long epidemic waves were predicted for India [33] and the whole world [31] with the use of the same generalized SIR model. In particular, if the global situation with vaccination, testing and treatment will not change, the COVID-19 pandemic could continue for another ten years [31]. "Stars" and "crosses" in the figure illustrate the accuracy of simulations for the accumulated number of cases and the averaged daily numbers of new cases (eq.…”

Section: Table 3 Optimal Values Of Parameters and Other Characteristics The Covid-19 Pandemic Waves In Poland Germany And Ukrainesupporting

confidence: 65%

“…The optimal values of the general SIR model and other characteristics of the 4th epidemic wave for Poland and the 5th one in Germany are calculated and listed in Table 3. For comparison, the results for the 13th pandemic wave in Ukraine (calculated in [31]) are also presented in the last column. The corresponding SIR curves are shown in the figure by red lines for Poland and black lines for Germany.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To simulate new epidemic waves, a numerical method of their detection [28] was developed. In particular, thirteen epidemic waves were simulated for Ukraine and six pandemic waves for the whole world [14,31,34] with the use of a generalized SIR-model [29], and corresponding parameter identification procedures [30]. The correct selection of all the COVID-19 pandemic waves in Poland and Germany is still ahead.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Final sizes and durations of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Poland and Germany predicted by generalized SIR model

Nesteruk

2021

Preprint

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New waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe, which began in the autumn of 2021, are a matter of great concern and the need to immediately predict the epidemic dynamics in order to assess the possible maximum values of new cases, the risk of infection and the number of deaths. The generalized SIR-model and corresponding parameter identification procedure was used to simulate and predict the dynamics of new epidemic waves in Poland and Germany. Results of calculations show that new cases in these countries will not stop to appear in 2022.

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Section: Table 3 Optimal Values Of Parameters and Other Characteristics The Covid-19 Pandemic Waves In Poland Germany And Ukrainesupporting

confidence: 65%

Section: Table 3 Optimal Values Of Parameters and Other Characteristics The Covid-19 Pandemic Waves In Poland Germany And Ukrainesupporting

confidence: 65%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Final sizes and durations of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Poland and Germany predicted by generalized SIR model

Nesteruk

2021

Preprint

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“…The statistical analysis performed in [9] revealed no correlation between DCC and VC values. simulations for Ukraine, Poland, Germany and the whole world [10,11] were based on the datasets corresponding to the periods before "omicron" waves and have to be updated. According to the statistical analysis performed in [9], the numbers of tests per capita TC do not aff ect the CC, DC, and CC/DC values, but the increase in the number of tests per case TC/CC can reduce CC and DC values.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

New COVID-19 Pandemic Waves Caused by Omicron and Efficiency of Vaccinations

Nesteruk¹,

Rodionov²

2022

J Biomed Res Environ Sci

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The sharp increase in the number of new COVID-19 cases in late 2021 and early 2022, which is associated with the spread of a new strain of coronavirus - omicron - is of great concern and makes it necessary to make at least approximate forecasts for the pandemic dynamics of the epidemic. As this rapid growth occurs even in countries with high levels of vaccinations, the question arises as to their effectiveness. The smoothed daily number of new cases and deaths per capita and the ratio of these characteristics were used to reveal the appearance of new coronavirus strains and to estimate the effectiveness of quarantine, testing and vaccination. The third year of the pandemic allowed us to compare the pandemic dynamics in the period from September 2020 to January 2021 with the same period one year later for Ukraine, EU, the UK, USA, India, Brazil, South Africa, Argentina, Australia, and in the whole world. Record numbers of new cases registered in late 2021 and early 2022 once again proved that existing vaccines cannot prevent new infections, and vaccinated people can spread the infection as intensively as non-vaccinated ones. Fortunately, the daily number of new cases already diminishes in EU, the UK, USA, South Africa, and Australia. In late January - early February 2022, the maximum averaged numbers of new cases are expected in Brazil, India, EU, and worldwide. Omicron waves can increase the numbers of deaths per capita, but in highly vaccinated countries, the deaths per case ratio significantly decreases. Highlights: Vaccinated persons can get and pass the new coronavirus variants. The probability of death is much lower for vaccinated persons.

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How dangerous is omicron and how effective are vaccinations?

Nesteruk

Rodionov²

2022

Preprint

Self Cite

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The sharp increase in the number of new COVID-19 cases in late 2021 and early 2022, which is associated with the spread of a new strain of coronavirus - omicron - is of great concern and makes it necessary to make at least approximate forecasts for the pandemic dynamics of the epidemic. As this rapid growth occurs even in countries with high levels of vaccinations, the question arises as to their effectiveness. The smoothed daily number of new cases and deaths per capita and the ratio of these characteristics were used to reveal the appearance of new coronavirus strains and to estimate the effectiveness of quarantine, testing and vaccination. The third year of the pandemic allowed us to compare the pandemic dynamics in the period from September 2020 to January 2021 with the same period one year later for Ukraine, EU, the UK, USA, India, Brazil, South Africa, Argentina, Australia, and in the whole world. Record numbers of new cases registered in late 2021 and early 2022 once again proved that existing vaccines cannot prevent new infections, and vaccinated people can spread the infection as intensively as non-vaccinated ones. Fortunately, the daily number of new cases already diminishes in EU, the UK, USA, South Africa, and Australia. In late January - early February 2022,the maximum averaged numbers of new cases are expected in Brazil, India, EU, and worldwide. Omicron waves can increase the numbers of deaths per capita, but in highly vaccinated countries, the deaths per case ratio significantly decreases.

show abstract

Final sizes and durations of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine and around the world predicted by generalized SIR model

Cited by 3 publications

References 24 publications

Final sizes and durations of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Poland and Germany predicted by generalized SIR model

Final sizes and durations of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Poland and Germany predicted by generalized SIR model

New COVID-19 Pandemic Waves Caused by Omicron and Efficiency of Vaccinations

How dangerous is omicron and how effective are vaccinations?

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