Filling the Eastern European gap in millennium-long temperature reconstructions

Büntgen, Ulf; Kyncl, Tomáš; Ginzler, Christian; Jacks, David S.; Esper, Jan; Tegel, Willy; Heußner, Karl-Uwe; Kyncl, Josef

doi:10.1073/pnas.1211485110

Cited by 108 publications

(68 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Detailed information on these events over the past centuries, particularly during the Little Ice Age (LIA), is scarce, however. Although there are some references regarding long-term precipitation changes (Nesje and Dahl 2003), most studies focused on temperature variability (Büntgen et al 2013). Based on 336 TRW series of 21 sites with a high coherence between species and elevation, we developed a 318-year SPI reconstruction representative for the central region of Spain.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tree-ring-based drought reconstruction in the Iberian Range (east of Spain) since 1694

et al. 2015

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Droughts are a recurrent phenomenon in the Mediterranean basin with negative consequences for society, economic activities, and natural systems. Nevertheless, the study of drought recurrence and severity in Spain has been limited so far due to the relatively short instrumental period. In this work, we present a reconstruction of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for the Iberian Range. Growth variations and climatic signals within the network are assessed developing a correlation matrix and the data combined to a single chronology integrating 336 samples from 169 trees of five different pine species distributed throughout the province of Teruel. The new chronology, calibrated against regional instrumental climatic data, shows a high and stable correlation with the July SPI integrating moisture conditions over 12 months forming the basis for a 318-year drought reconstruction. The climate signal contained in this reconstruction is highly significant (p<0.05) and spatially robust over the interior areas of Spain located above 1000 meters above sea level (masl). According to our SPI reconstruction, seven substantially dry and five wet periods are identified since the late seventeenth century considering ≥±1.76 standard deviations. Besides these, 36 drought and 28 pluvial years were identified. Some of these years, such as 1725, 1741, 1803, and 1879, are also revealed in other drought reconstructions in Romania and Turkey, suggesting that coherent larger-scale synoptic patterns drove these extreme deviations. Since regional drought deviations are also retained in historical documents, the tree-ringbased reconstruction presented here will allow us to crossvalidate drought frequency and magnitude in a highly vulnerable region.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tree-ring-based drought reconstruction in the Iberian Range (east of Spain) since 1694

et al. 2015

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“…Many dominant trees in old-growth forests originated two to four centuries ago [42,47,72]. At that time, the densities of ungulates in the Dinaric Mountains were significantly lower, with some species even going extinct due to poaching [14], and the climate was cooler (little ice age, 16th-mid 19th century period; see [73][74][75]). In managed forests, conifers were favoured and beech treated as a non-commercial species.…”

Section: Historical Evidence and Possible Causes Of Beech Progressionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Compared to the mid 19th century, warmer climate conditions were already being reported at the beginning of the 20th century [75,76]. Warm spells induced a diffuse decline of conifers in mixed mountain forests on extreme sites and at the limits of their geographic range [4].…”

Section: Historical Evidence and Possible Causes Of Beech Progressionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative Structural Dynamics of the Janj Mixed Old-Growth Mountain Forest in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Are Conifers in a Long-Term Decline?

Keren

Motta

Govedar

et al. 2014

Forests

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Regression of conifers in European mixed old-growth mountain forests has been observed for a long period and studied from different aspects. Old-growth (OG) forests in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) have not experienced heavy air pollution and chronic overbrowsing that have affected many other European OG forests, while climatic and anthropogenic disturbances have been well documented. We analysed stand structure in the Janj OG forest, compared it with inventories of Lom and Perucica OG forests (BiH) and with earlier inventories of the same reserves. At present, OG forest Janj is characterized by a high growing stock (1215 m ). This is due to good site quality, prevalence of conifers (84%) and dominant endogenous processes in recent decades. In all three OG forests, indicators of structural change exhibited progression of European beech over time. Historical evidence revealed the occurrence of warm summers and droughts followed by OPEN ACCESSForests 2014, 5 1244 bark beetle outbreaks in the 1920s, 1940s and early 1950s, which in turn influenced a marked conifer decline. It seems likely that repeated canopy opening released waves of European beech regeneration. These stand structural changes have delayed the rejuvenation of conifers and can help explain the early observations of conifer decline.

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“…As was shown in our study, gridded CRU TS, a freely available climatic series, was sufficient for cross-dating and has already been used in many dendroclimatological studies in other European regions (e.g. Babst et al, 2013;Büntgen et al, 2007Büntgen et al, , 2009Büntgen et al, , 2013. The instrumental time series is used to control the subjective decisions of the researcher.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 83%

Cross-dating tree-ring series of living European beech by isochronic weather records

et al. 2016

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Abstract:The main objective of the study is to facilitate cross-dating of sensitive tree-ring series from living European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) trees in the absence of a regional chronology. The main idea lies in the preliminary dating of marker rings or ring patterns visually identified on the wood (before the ring-width measurements), which is independently validated through a moving correlation between a tentative reference chronology and instrumental climate records (after the ringwidth measurements). Following the detection of low moving correlations, potentially misdated segments or series are re-examined and a new tentative reference chronology is constructed. The process is repeated as long as a higher correlation with climate is obtainable. The applicability of this method was investigated on three difficult-to-date sets of tree-ring series of beech trees which were growing at temperature-or precipitation-sensitive locations in under-canopy or canopy positions. A good ability of the combined method for the cross-dating was practiced on datasets almost impossible to crossdate by commonly used approaches. Highlighting the actual correlation of ring widths with climate in tree-ring series makes the cross-dating process more independent from human decisions, so the combined cross-dating has the potential to improve the reliability of various dendrochronological studies.

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Filling the Eastern European gap in millennium-long temperature reconstructions

Cited by 108 publications

References 49 publications

Tree-ring-based drought reconstruction in the Iberian Range (east of Spain) since 1694

Tree-ring-based drought reconstruction in the Iberian Range (east of Spain) since 1694

Comparative Structural Dynamics of the Janj Mixed Old-Growth Mountain Forest in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Are Conifers in a Long-Term Decline?

Cross-dating tree-ring series of living European beech by isochronic weather records

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