Field Survey of the March 28, 2005 Nias-Simeulue Earthquake and Tsunami

Borrero, José C.; McAdoo, Brian G.; Jaffe, Bruce E.; Dengler, Lori; Gelfenbaum, Guy; Higman, Bretwood; Hidayat, Rahman; Moore, Adam D.; Kongko, Widjo; Lukijanto,; Peters, Robert W.; Prasetya, Gegar; Titov, Vasily V.; Yulianto, Eko

doi:10.1007/s00024-010-0218-6

Cited by 30 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…In addition, informal real-time warnings transmitted to government authorities in Thailand were not heeded, allegedly on account of their potentially negative impact on the large tourist community. -By contrast, the 2005 Nias earthquake is ranked blue (almost perfect): the response of the population in the near field was exemplary, resulting in only 10 casualties, primarily on account of ancestral tradition among populations south of the 2004 rupture [85,86]. In the far-field, however, the issued warning was overcautious due to tsunami generation in shallow seas and under islands [87].…”

Section: (A) Events From 2004 To 2010mentioning

confidence: 99%

The quest for wisdom: lessons from 17 tsunamis, 2004–2014

Okal¹

2015

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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Since the catastrophic Sumatra–Andaman tsunami took place in 2004, 16 other tsunamis have resulted in significant damage and 14 in casualties. We review the fundamental changes that have affected our command of tsunami issues as scientists, engineers and decision-makers, in the quest for improved wisdom in this respect. While several scientific paradigms have had to be altered or abandoned, new algorithms, e.g. the W seismic phase and real-time processing of fast-arriving seismic P waves, give us more powerful tools to estimate in real time the tsunamigenic character of an earthquake. We assign to each event a ‘wisdom index’ based on the warning issued (or not) during the event, and on the response of the population. While this approach is admittedly subjective, it clearly shows several robust trends: (i) we have made significant progress in our command of far-field warning, with only three casualties in the past 10 years; (ii) self-evacuation by educated populations in the near field is a key element of successful tsunami mitigation; (iii) there remains a significant cacophony between the scientific community and decision-makers in industry and government as documented during the 2010 Maule and 2011 Tohoku events; and (iv) the so-called ‘tsunami earthquakes’ generating larger tsunamis than expected from the size of their seismic source persist as a fundamental challenge, despite scientific progress towards characterizing these events in real time.

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Section: (A) Events From 2004 To 2010mentioning

confidence: 99%

The quest for wisdom: lessons from 17 tsunamis, 2004–2014

Okal¹

2015

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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“…The epicenter was located in a shallow water region, producing a high-intensity earthquake but a small tsunami. Based on field survey data (BORRERO et al 2011) section, the number of casualties was the largest (as high as 509) (NOAA/NGDC 2014). In fact, this earthquake was considered a ''tsunami earthquake'' that generated a much larger tsunami than expected from the seismic magnitude, insofar as the observed tsunami was 4-7 m high (TOMITA et al 2011;SATAKE et al 2013) and the maximum runup was measured as high as 16.8 m (HILL et al 2012).…”

Section: The 2005 Nias Earthquake and Tsunamimentioning

confidence: 99%

A Decade After the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami: The Progress in Disaster Preparedness and Future Challenges in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand and the Maldives

Suppasri

Goto

Muhari

et al. 2015

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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Abstract-The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was one of the most devastating tsunamis in world history. The tsunami caused damage to most of the Asian and other countries bordering the Indian Ocean. After a decade, reconstruction has been completed with different levels of tsunami countermeasures in most areas; however, some land use planning using probabilistic tsunami hazard maps and vulnerabilities should be addressed to prepare for future tsunamis. Examples of early-stage reconstruction are herein provided alongside a summary of some of the major tsunamis that have occurred since 2004, revealing the tsunami countermeasures established during the reconstruction period. Our primary objective is to report on and discuss the vulnerabilities found during our field visits to the tsunami-affected countries-namely, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand and the Maldives. For each country, future challenges based on current tsunami countermeasures, such as land use planning, warning systems, evacuation facilities, disaster education and disaster monuments are explained. The problem of traffic jams during tsunami evacuations, especially in well-known tourist areas, was found to be the most common problem faced by all of the countries. The readiness of tsunami warning systems differed across the countries studied. These systems are generally sufficient on a national level, but local hazards require greater study. Disaster reduction education that would help to maintain high tsunami awareness is well established in most countries. Some geological evidence is well preserved even after a decade. Conversely, the maintenance of monuments to the 2004 tsunami appears to be a serious problem. Finally, the reconstruction progress was evaluated based on the experiences of disaster reconstruction in Japan. All vulnerabilities discussed here should be addressed to create longterm, disaster-resilient communities.

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“…Next to the above‐mentioned tsunami runup database from the US National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC), there are additional data available at the website of the UNESCO International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC, http://itic.ioc-unesco.org, last accessed 2011 January) for the two major tsunamis in 2007 and 2010. Furthermore, Borrero et al (2009, 2011) published the results of their post‐tsunami field survey after the 2007 September and the 2005 March event.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Fig. 3 displays the field survey observations after the 2007 Bengkulu event by Borrero et al (2009) and the corresponding tsunami threat assessment at three forecast points in the region [a corresponding figure is provided in the Supporting Information for the 2005 March event with the field survey observations of Borrero et al (2011)].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Runup observations by eye witnesses are subjective estimates made in very stressful situations of tsunami inundation affecting the reliability of the observations. The population’s perception might also be biased by deadly tsunami events as observed by Borrero et al (2011). During their interviews people claimed ‘that there “was no tsunami” but rather that the sea level merely rose up, flooded their land and knocked down some houses’.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Probabilistic tsunami threat assessment of 10 recent earthquakes offshore Sumatra

Blaser

Ohrnberger

Scherbaum

2012

Geophysical Journal International

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S U M M A R YTsunami early warning (TEW) is a challenging task as a decision has to be made within few minutes on the basis of incomplete and error-prone data. Deterministic warning systems have difficulties in integrating and quantifying the intrinsic uncertainties. In contrast, probabilistic approaches provide a framework that handles uncertainties in a natural way. Recently, we have proposed a method using Bayesian networks (BNs) that takes into account the uncertainties of seismic source parameter estimates in TEW. In this follow-up study, the method is applied to 10 recent large earthquakes offshore Sumatra and tested for its performance. We have evaluated both the general model performance given the best knowledge we have today about the source parameters of the 10 events and the corresponding response on seismic source information evaluated in real-time. We find that the resulting site-specific warning level probabilities represent well the available tsunami wave measurements and observations. Difficulties occur in the real-time tsunami assessment if the moment magnitude estimate is severely over-or underestimated. In general, the probabilistic analysis reveals a considerably large range of uncertainties in the near-field TEW. By quantifying the uncertainties the BN analysis provides important additional information to a decision maker in a warning centre to deal with the complexity in TEW and to reason under uncertainty.

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Field Survey of the March 28, 2005 Nias-Simeulue Earthquake and Tsunami

Cited by 30 publications

References 15 publications

The quest for wisdom: lessons from 17 tsunamis, 2004–2014

The quest for wisdom: lessons from 17 tsunamis, 2004–2014

A Decade After the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami: The Progress in Disaster Preparedness and Future Challenges in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand and the Maldives

Probabilistic tsunami threat assessment of 10 recent earthquakes offshore Sumatra

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