Field Survey of the 2018 Sulawesi Tsunami: Inundation and Run-up Heights and Damage to Coastal Communities

Mikami, Takahito; Shibayama, Tomoya; Esteban, Miguel; Takabatake, Tomoyuki; Nakamura, Ryota; Nishida, Yuta; Achiari, Hendra; Rusli, Rusli; Marzuki, Abdul Gafur; Marzuki, Muhammad Fadel Hidayat; Stolle, Jacob; Krautwald, Clemens; Robertson, Ian; Aránguiz, Rafael; Ohira, Koichiro

doi:10.1007/s00024-019-02258-5

Cited by 62 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Similar results were computed for each type of simulation: 1) the envelope of maximum surface elevations over the study area and runups along the Palu Bay coastline, to be compared with measurements from field surveys (Pribadi et al, 2018;Mikami et al, 2019;Omira et al, 2019;Putra et al, 2019;Widiyanto et al, 2019), in Figures 3,9,11, for the coseismic, landslide, and dual sources, respectively (runups computed in both the coarser BG and finer SG/EG grids are provided, whereas envelopes are computed using the finer resolution results, wherever available); and 2) time series of surface elevations computed at locations where various observations or measurements were made or inferred, i.e., Wani, Pantoloan, Dupa, Talise, KN Hotel, and Grand Mall ( Figure 1B), in Figures 4,10,12, respectively.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We compare the results to a more comprehensive database of post-tsunami field survey results, including runups, tsunami elevations at the Pantoloan Port tide gauge together with those inferred at other locations from a novel analysis of the tsunami videos (Carvajal et al, 2019). From tsunami timing information in the aircraft pilot and other videos, we infer that there was a short delay in the triggering of the landslides by the earthquake, that FIGURE 3 | (A,C) Runups R (black dots) measured in Palu Bay by international teams (Pribadi et al, 2018;Mikami et al, 2019;Omira et al, 2019;Putra et al, 2019;Widiyanto et al, 2019) we use in modeling and show that this improves the agreement with observations.…”

Section: Figure 1 | (A)mentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Study area with base model grid (BG) over Palu Bay (white box), epicenter location (USGS, 2018, yellow star), and traces of local faults used in earthquake source models by: (blue) Jamelot et al (2019), (red) Socquet et al (2019), and (green) Ulrich et al 2019; (B) Footprint of BG with locations of (red dots) measured runups (Pribadi et al, 2018;Mikami et al, 2019;Omira et al, 2019;Putra et al, 2019;Widiyanto et al, 2019) (black dots) surface elevation time series inferred from shore-based videos (Carvajal et al, 2019, GM, grand mall; KN, KN Hotel; T, Talise; D, Dupa; P, Pantoloan; W, Wani) (yellow dots) observed landslides, (diamond) location of aircraft at 10:04:33 UTC, that filmed coastal landslides ( Figure 2).…”

Section: Figure 1 | (A)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the months following the event, international research teams conducted field surveys, recording earthquake and tsunami damage, landslides, and tsunami runup and inundation. Red dots in Figure 1B mark locations of runups collected by Mikami et al (2019); Omira et al (2019); Pribadi et al (2018); Putra et al (2019); Widiyanto et al (2019) (note only data labeled as runup in these references was used). Earthquake shaking, tsunami generation (particularly by coastal landslides; e.g., Figure 2), and various tsunami impacts were recorded in many amateur videos posted on social media, that were collected and analyzed (e.g., Carvajal et al, 2019), providing critical information on the timing and sequence of events.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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New High-Resolution Modeling of the 2018 Palu Tsunami, Based on Supershear Earthquake Mechanisms and Mapped Coastal Landslides, Supports a Dual Source

2021

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The Mw 7.5 earthquake that struck Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, on September 28, 2018, was rapidly followed by coastal landslides and destructive tsunami waves within Palu Bay. Here, we present new tsunami modeling that supports a dual source mechanism from the supershear strike-slip earthquake and coastal landslides. Up until now the tsunami mechanism: earthquake, coastal landslides, or a combination of both, has remained controversial, because published research has been inconclusive; with some studies explaining most observations from the earthquake and others the landslides. Major challenges are the numerous different earthquake source models used in tsunami modeling, and that landslide mechanisms have been hypothetical. Here, we simulate tsunami generation using three published earthquake models, alone and in combination with seven coastal landslides identified in earlier work and confirmed by field and bathymetric evidence which, from video evidence, produced significant waves. To generate and propagate the tsunamis, we use a combination of two wave models, the 3D non-hydrostatic model NHWAVE and the 2D Boussinesq model FUNWAVE-TVD. Both models are nonlinear and address the physics of wave frequency dispersion critical in modeling tsunamis from landslides, which here, in NHWAVE are modeled as granular material. Our combined, earthquake and coastal landslide, simulations recreate all observed tsunami runups, except those in the southeast of Palu Bay where they were most elevated (10.5 m), as well as observations made in video recordings and at the Pantoloan Port tide gauge located within Palu Bay. With regard to the timing of tsunami impact on the coast, results from the dual landslide/earthquake sources, particularly those using the supershear earthquake models are in good agreement with reconstructed time series at most locations. Our new work shows that an additional tsunami mechanism is also necessary to explain the elevated tsunami observations in the southeast of Palu Bay. Using partial information from bathymetric surveys in this area we show that an additional, submarine landslide here, when simulated with the other coastal slides, and the supershear earthquake mechanism better explains the observations. This supports the need for future marine geology work in this area.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Figure 1 | (A)mentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Figure 1 | (A)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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New High-Resolution Modeling of the 2018 Palu Tsunami, Based on Supershear Earthquake Mechanisms and Mapped Coastal Landslides, Supports a Dual Source

2021

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“…ponent cannot be excluded (Heidarzadeh et al, 2019;Pakoksung et al, 2019;Mikami et al, 2019). A discussion has been added to the manuscript to address these uncertainties.…”

Section: C3mentioning

confidence: 99%

Author Response to Referee#5

Sözdinler¹

2019

Preprint

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It is not clear how the 30 earthquake scenarios are obtained: why admitting only those combination of fault segments? Are the Authors sure that the segmentation model is appropriate? How can they exclude other combinations (e.g., rupturing segments in different sequence/number)? Which criteria have been used for these choices? Recent earthquakes such as the 2016 Kaikoura event in New Zealand (Mw7.8) and others have shown that fault segmentation is not stable and easy to predict. This question has also been asked by the previous reviewers. The manuscript has been revised and further information on how the models were determined has been added. The scenarios used in this study are considered to be to credible worst-case scenarios, where especially Mw values are derived from Wells&Coppersmith (1994),

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Tsunami Induced by the Strike-Slip Fault of the 2018 Palu Earthquake (Mw=7.5), Sulawesi Island, Indonesia

Satake

Watada

et al. 2020

Preprint

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after an M w 7.5 earthquake. A moment tensor solution obtained by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) from W phase waveforms suggests strike-slip faulting with a high dip angle (∼67°) at a shallow depth (∼13 km). The estimated nodal plane strikes approximately north-south (N10°W) with a rake angle of −17°, implying the presence of some normal faulting component.The Palu-Koro fault (Figure 1), the plate boundary between the Makassar block and the North Sula block, is thought to be responsible for the Palu earthquake. Global Navigation Satellite System monitoring shows that the relative velocity on the Palu-Koro fault zone accommodates 42 mm/yr of complex transtensive

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Field Survey of the 2018 Sulawesi Tsunami: Inundation and Run-up Heights and Damage to Coastal Communities

Cited by 62 publications

References 25 publications

New High-Resolution Modeling of the 2018 Palu Tsunami, Based on Supershear Earthquake Mechanisms and Mapped Coastal Landslides, Supports a Dual Source

New High-Resolution Modeling of the 2018 Palu Tsunami, Based on Supershear Earthquake Mechanisms and Mapped Coastal Landslides, Supports a Dual Source

Author Response to Referee#5

Tsunami Induced by the Strike-Slip Fault of the 2018 Palu Earthquake (Mw=7.5), Sulawesi Island, Indonesia

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