Field Survey of the 1945 Makran and 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunamis in Baluchistan, Iran

Okal, Emile A.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Hamzeh, Mohammad Ali; Ghasemzadeh, Javad

doi:10.1007/s00024-015-1157-z

Cited by 19 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 44 publications

(44 reference statements)

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“…Section 3 introduces the test case chosen here, the 1945 Makran earthquake and tsunami. As this is a historical source, we have chosen to centre the tsunami realisations in the vicinity of the source mechanism proposed by (Okal et al, 2015). Section 4 highlights the tsunami modeling aspect of the study, which as stated utilizes the massively parallelized tsunami code Volna-OP2.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Faster Than Real Time Tsunami Warning with Associated Hazard Uncertainties

et al. 2021

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Tsunamis are unpredictable events and catastrophic in their potential for destruction of human lives and economy. The unpredictability of their occurrence poses a challenge to the tsunami community, as it is difficult to obtain from the tsunamigenic records estimates of recurrence rates and severity. Accurate and efficient mathematical/computational modeling is thus called upon to provide tsunami forecasts and hazard assessments. Compounding this challenge for warning centres is the physical nature of tsunamis, which can travel at extremely high speeds in the open ocean or be generated close to the shoreline. Thus, tsunami forecasts must be not only accurate but also delivered under severe time constraints. In the immediate aftermath of a tsunamigenic earthquake event, there are uncertainties in the source such as location, rupture geometry, depth, magnitude. Ideally, these uncertainties should be represented in a tsunami warning. However in practice, quantifying the uncertainties in the hazard intensity (i.e., maximum tsunami amplitude) due to the uncertainties in the source is not feasible, since it requires a large number of high resolution simulations. We approximate the functionally complex and computationally expensive high resolution tsunami simulations with a simple and cheap statistical emulator. A workflow integrating the entire chain of components from the tsunami source to quantification of hazard uncertainties is developed here - quantification of uncertainties in tsunamigenic earthquake sources, high resolution simulation of tsunami scenarios using the GPU version of Volna-OP2 on a non-uniform mesh for an ensemble of sources, construction of an emulator using the simulations as training data, and prediction of hazard intensities with associated uncertainties using the emulator. Thus, using the massively parallelized finite volume tsunami code Volna-OP2 as the heart of the workflow, we use statistical emulation to compute uncertainties in hazard intensity at locations of interest. Such an integration also balances the trade-off between computationally expensive simulations and desired accuracy of uncertainties, within given time constraints. The developed workflow is fully generic and independent of the source (1945 Makran earthquake) studied here.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Faster Than Real Time Tsunami Warning with Associated Hazard Uncertainties

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“…Grey and white areas differentiate between clusters and the average silhouette width is indicated by a dashed line. Okal et al (2015) report the result of a 2010 survey of the effects on the Iranian coastline of the tsunami which followed the earthquake of 28 November 1945 (MO = 2.8 ˟ 10 28 dyn cm; MW = 8.2) which accompanied with the tsunami waves, resulted from an ancillary phenomenon, such as a landslide operated by the earthquake. Also, Shah-Hosseini et al (2011) reported 58 coastal boulders attesting to large waves along the rocky coast of Iranian Makran from Chahbahar to Lipar (Fig.…”

Section: Cluster Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The majority of studies on paleotsunami deposits have been conducted in temperate regions, with few studies in tropical regions, and even fewer in arid environments. Although the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 1945 Makran tsunami demonstrate the tsunami risk to the Makran area of Iran and adjacent coastlines, this area has been the subject of few published (Mokhtari et al, 2008;Shah-Hosseini et al, 2011;Hamzeh et al, 2013;Okal et al, 2015) paleotsunami studies. Donato et al, (2008Donato et al, ( , 2009 and Pilarczyk et al, (2011 investigated shell layers, grain size distributions, and foraminifera, respectively, from the 1945 Makran tsunami in Sur Lagoon (coast of Oman).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Donato et al, (2008Donato et al, ( , 2009 and Pilarczyk et al, (2011 investigated shell layers, grain size distributions, and foraminifera, respectively, from the 1945 Makran tsunami in Sur Lagoon (coast of Oman). Numerical studies have also been done to assess the tsunami risk of the Makran and adjacent coastlines (Mokhtari et al, 2008;Heidarzadeh et al, 2008aHeidarzadeh et al, , 2009Okal & Synolakis, 2008;Okal et al, 2015;Jaiswal et al, 2009;Shah-Hosseini et al, 2011;Payande et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Coastal Foraminifera From the Iranian Coast of Makran, Oman Sea (Chabahar Bay to Gawater Bay) as an Indicator of Tsunamis

Vaziri

Reinhart

Pilarczyk

2016

Geological Society of America Abstracts With Programs

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Extreme coastal inundation associated with the 2004 Indian Ocean and 1945 Makran tsunamigenic-earthquakes highlight the risk of tsunamis to coastlines of the northern Oman Sea. Foraminifera have been used as indicators of paleotsunamis in the past where allochthonous tests, found in low-energy environments such as in coastal lagoons, ponds, and marshes, indicate marine overwash. In this study, we constrain the modern distributions of foraminifera from coastal Iran so that they may be used to identify and interpret (e.g. assess provenance) paleotsunami deposits in the geologic record. We collected surface sediment samples from sixteen sites within the study area from Chabahar to Gawater Bays on the Makran coast of Iran, selecting locations impacted by the 1945 Makran tsunami. Foraminifera obtained from these locations are dominated by supratidal, intertidal, and subtidal species, with minor abundances of planktic taxa. Samples collected from study locations are characterized by abundances of iron-stained and heavily corroded (e.g. edge rounded and pitted) individuals. Cluster analysis was used to determine three foraminiferal assemblages within the Makran coastal zone: subtidal, intertidal and supratidal. Characterizing modern distributions of foraminifera along the Makran coast of Iran will aid in identifying the provenance of older overwash deposits previously identified in this region.

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“…The Makran subduction zone (MSZ) at the northwestern Indian Ocean (Fig. 1) has been at the center of attention in terms of earthquake and tsunami-hazard assessment in the aftermath of the large 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami (e.g., Heidarzadeh, Pirooz, Zaker, Yalciner, et al, 2008;Okal and Synolakis, 2008;Fritz et al, 2010;Neetu et al, 2011;Shah-Hosseini et al, 2011;Smith et al, 2012;Hoffmann et al, 2013;Rajendran et al, 2013;Kakar et al, 2014;Okal et al, 2015;Frohling and Szeliga, 2016;Schneider et al, 2016). The MSZ, which is the result of subduction of the Arabian plate beneath the Eurasian plate at the rate of 19:5 mm=yr (Vernant et al, 2004), has produced at least 13 M ≥ 6:5 earthquakes ( Fig.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Combined Earthquake–Landslide Source Model for the Tsunami from the 27 November 1945M_w 8.1 Makran Earthquake

Heidarzadeh

Satake

2017

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

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The tsunami of 27 November 1945 from an M w 8.1 earthquake in the Makran subduction zone is the only instrumentally recorded and deadly tsunami in the northwest Indian Ocean; offshore Iran, Pakistan, Oman, and India. Despite the fact that some source models have been proposed based on seismic or far-field tsunami data, none of them was able to reproduce one important observation: near-field runup of 10-12 m. Here, we applied numerical modeling and examined three possible secondary sources: (1) splay faulting, (2) delayed rupture of the earthquake source, and (3) submarine landslides. These secondary sources were added to the existing state-of-the-art earthquake source for this tsunami. Results of simulations revealed that only a submarine landslide with dimensions of 15 km (length) × 15 km (width), a thickness of 600 m, a volume of ∼40 km 3 , and located at 63.0°E, 24.8°N is capable of reproducing the near-field tsunami observation. Such a combined earthquake-landslide source is consistent with all available observations including far-field tsunami waveforms in Karachi (Pakistan) and Mumbai (India), with near-field runup height of 10-12 m, coastal coseismic deformation data in Pasni (subsidence) and Ormara (uplift ∼1-3 m), and earthquake magnitude (M 8.0-8.3). Electronic Supplement: Tables listing parameters of the splay fault and landslide scenarios, and figures showing deformation and coastal tsunami amplitudes from splay fault and landslide scenarios.

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Field Survey of the 1945 Makran and 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunamis in Baluchistan, Iran

Cited by 19 publications

References 44 publications

Faster Than Real Time Tsunami Warning with Associated Hazard Uncertainties

Faster Than Real Time Tsunami Warning with Associated Hazard Uncertainties

Coastal Foraminifera From the Iranian Coast of Makran, Oman Sea (Chabahar Bay to Gawater Bay) as an Indicator of Tsunamis

A Combined Earthquake–Landslide Source Model for the Tsunami from the 27 November 1945M_w 8.1 Makran Earthquake

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Field Survey of the 1945 Makran and 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunamis in Baluchistan, Iran

Cited by 19 publications

References 44 publications

Faster Than Real Time Tsunami Warning with Associated Hazard Uncertainties

Faster Than Real Time Tsunami Warning with Associated Hazard Uncertainties

Coastal Foraminifera From the Iranian Coast of Makran, Oman Sea (Chabahar Bay to Gawater Bay) as an Indicator of Tsunamis

A Combined Earthquake–Landslide Source Model for the Tsunami from the 27 November 1945Mw 8.1 Makran Earthquake

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Product

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A Combined Earthquake–Landslide Source Model for the Tsunami from the 27 November 1945M_w 8.1 Makran Earthquake