Field Evidence of Social Influence in the Expression of Political Preferences: The Case of Secessionists Flags in Barcelona

Abstract

Models of social influence have explored the dynamics of social contagion, imitation, and diffusion of different types of traits, opinions, and conducts. However, few behavioral data indicating social influence dynamics have been obtained from direct observation in “natural” social contexts. The present research provides that kind of evidence in the case of the public expression of political preferences in the city of Barcelona, where thousands of citizens supporting the secession of Catalonia from Spain have placed a Catalan flag in their balconies and windows. Here we present two different studies. 1) During July 2013 we registered the number of flags in 26% of the electoral districts in the city of Barcelona. We find that there is a large dispersion in the density of flags in districts with similar density of pro-independence voters. However, by comparing the moving average to the global mean we find that the density of flags tends to be fostered in electoral districts where there is a clear majority of pro-independence vote, while it is inhibited in the opposite cases. We also show that the distribution of flags in the observed districts deviates significantly from that of an equivalent random distribution. 2) During 17 days around Catalonia’s 2013 national holiday we observed the position at balcony resolution of the flags displayed in the facades of a sub-sample of 82 blocks. We compare the ‘clustering index’ of flags on the facades observed each day to thousands of equivalent random distributions. Again we provide evidence that successive hangings of flags are not independent events but that a local influence mechanism is favoring their clustering. We also find that except for the national holiday day the density of flags tends to be fostered in facades located in electoral districts where there is a clear majority of pro-independence vote.

Secession and social polarization: Evidence from Catalonia

“…'18 Asking about flag display is sensible and familiar to respondents in Catalonia, as this is a practice that has become increasingly common as a result of the political conflict. In recent years, pro-independence people have popularized displaying secessionist flags (Estelada) on the balconies of apartments and houses(Parravano et al 2015). In addition, much anecdotal evidence indicates a rise in the display of Spanish flags within Catalonia (and in other parts of Spain) since the 1 October 2017 referendum.…”

Bounded Confidence under Preferential Flip: A Coupled Dynamics of Structural Balance and Opinions

“…Another (complementary) extension would be to consider incomplete networks. As for the field of applications, despite the difficulties inherent in obtaining direct evidence of social influence (see Parravano et al [78] for an example), it would be interesting to further explore connections of this type of models to real world phenomena. These, as well as other possible extensions of the model, are left for future research.…”

Secessionist conflict and affective polarization: Evidence from Catalonia

“… 17 Asking about flag display is sensible to respondents in Catalonia, as this practice has become increasingly common as a result of the political conflict. In recent years, some pro-independence people have increasingly displayed secessionist flags outside of their homes (Parravano et al, 2015). In addition, the display of Spanish flags within Catalonia and other parts of Spain since the 1 October 2017 referendum has increased; Dinas, Martínez & Valentim (2020) provide systematic evidence about the increase in display of Spanish flags in Madrid.…”