Fertility rebound and economic growth. New evidence for 18 countries over the period 1970–2011

Abstract

Long-run impact of economic growth on fertility trends is ambiguous and sensitive for in-time variations. Noticeably, over last decades, economic growth has led to significant falls in total fertility rates in many countries. However, recently, in high-income economies a kind of ‘fertility rebound’ emerged (Goldstein, 2009; Luci and Thevenon, 2011; Day, 2012), which supports the hypothesis that reversal trends in total fertility rates are mainly attributed to economic growth. The paper unveils the relationship between total fertility rate changes and economic growth in 18 selected countries with fertility rebound observed, over the period 1970–2011, and detects the GDP-threshold at which the fertility rebound emerged. To report on the relationship we deploy longitudinal data analysis assuming non-linearity between examined variables. The data applied are exclusively derived from World Development Indicators 2013. Our main findings support the hypothesis on U-shaped relationship between the total fertility rate and economic growth in analyzed countries in 1970-2011. Along with the previous, we project the minimum level of GDP per capita (GDP-threshold) when the fertility rebound takes place.

The Relationship between Female Education and Total Fertility Rate, and the Role of Paid Leave Entitlements Available to Mothers

“…In the present study, total fertility rate and GDP per capita were reported to show a significant quadratic U-shaped relationship: fertility dropped as GDP per capita increased, but then rose again. The result is in line with the "fertility rebound" theory put forth by Myrskylä et al (2009), Dominiak et al (2015), and Luci-Greulich and Thevenon (2010). Economic growth has been found to significantly contribute to the decline of total fertility rates in many countries.…”

“…Economic growth has been found to significantly contribute to the decline of total fertility rates in many countries. However, recently, in high-income economies, a 'fertility rebound' has emerged and, according to Dominiak et al (2015), once a country passed the threshold level of GDP per capita 32,208 (in 2005 constant USD), fertility decline stopped and, in some cases, rose.…”

“…Weil and Sharma (2016) claimed that as countries get richer, people value children as 'normal goods' on which they need to spend money, and in highincome countries, the cost of raising children increases as parents have fewer children and focus more on the "quality" of the children, and improving the children's prospects in life. However, a series of recent empirical studies have identified changing relationships between economic growth and fertility rates (Dominiak, Lechman, & Okonowicz, 2015;Luci-Greulich & Thévenon, 2010;Myrskylä, Kohler, & Billari, 2009;). Myrskylä et al (2009) found that in highly developed countries, further development halted the declining fertility rates, which means that the previously negative development-fertility association was reversed, and the graph became Ushaped.…”

Can Theory Explain the Evidence on Fertility Decline Reversal?

“…Their estimated threshold per capita GDP of around $30,000 in year 2005 PPP US$ corresponds to Myrskyla, Kohler and Billari's () HDI threshold of 0.95. Dominiak, Lechman and Okonowicz () provide a longitudinal analysis of 18 high‐income countries from 1970 to 2011. Their estimated threshold per capita GDP of around $32,208 in year 2005 constant US$ corroborates Luci‐Greulich and Thevenon's evidence of a U‐shaped association.…”

“…Presently, the debate focuses on cross‐country empirical evidence. While there is conflicting evidence on the association between fertility and socioeconomic development (Furuoka ; Myrskyla, Kohler and Billari ; Harttgen and Vollmer ), evidence suggests a reversal in the negative association between fertility and the logarithm of per capita output (Luci‐Greulich and Thevenon ; Dominiak, Lechman and Okonowicz ). This article contributes to the debate by providing a theoretical analysis that explains how growth in per capita output affects fertility.…”