Fertility Rebound and Economic Growth. New Evidence for 18 Countries Over the Period 1970-2011.

Demographic Transition and Fertility Rebound in Economic Development*

“…message that we can take from Figure 2 is consistent with the message of an emerging body of literature of empirical studies that have observed a similar outcome, describing it as the fertility rebound in advanced economies. For example, Myrskylä et al, (2009), Luci-Greulich and Théveron (2014), and Dominiak et al, (2014) employed empirical methods and showed that many developed economies are already going through a phase of fertility rebound. 6 The aforementioned observations on the fertility rebound, combined with the changes in fertility trends since the beginning of early industrialization, offer credence to the idea that the dynamics of fertility, along the various stages of economic development, can be traced on an N-shaped curve.…”

“…repercussions of population ageing. 8 Finally, it is worth re-emphasizing that the literature is missing a theoretical foundation for the recent reversal in the TFRs of various Western countries, despite this being documented as a stylized demographic finding by several researchers (e.g., Goldstein et al, 2009;Myrskylä et al, 2009;Bongaarts and Sobotka, 2012;Dominiak et al, 2014;Luci-Greulich and Théveron, 2014). Our study is a first step towards filling this gap in the literature.…”

Can Theory Explain the Evidence on Fertility Decline Reversal?

“…Their estimated threshold per capita GDP of around $30,000 in year 2005 PPP US$ corresponds to Myrskyla, Kohler and Billari's () HDI threshold of 0.95. Dominiak, Lechman and Okonowicz () provide a longitudinal analysis of 18 high‐income countries from 1970 to 2011. Their estimated threshold per capita GDP of around $32,208 in year 2005 constant US$ corroborates Luci‐Greulich and Thevenon's evidence of a U‐shaped association.…”

“…Presently, the debate focuses on cross‐country empirical evidence. While there is conflicting evidence on the association between fertility and socioeconomic development (Furuoka ; Myrskyla, Kohler and Billari ; Harttgen and Vollmer ), evidence suggests a reversal in the negative association between fertility and the logarithm of per capita output (Luci‐Greulich and Thevenon ; Dominiak, Lechman and Okonowicz ). This article contributes to the debate by providing a theoretical analysis that explains how growth in per capita output affects fertility.…”

Social externalities, endogenous childcare costs, and fertility choice

“…Due to real wage growth, this change, eventually, leads to fertility decline. 2 See, e.g., Bongaarts and Sobotka (2012), Day (2016), Dominiak et al (2015), Futagami and Konishi (2019), Goldstein et al (2009), Hirazawa and Yakita (2017), Lacalle-Calderon et al (2017), Luci and Thévenon (2011), Mavropoulos and Panagiotidis (2021), Myrskylä et al (2009), and Nakagaki (2019), and Ohinata and Varvarigos (2019). , 1960, -2010, the following countries are included: Austria, Australia, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, the UK, and the USA.…”